ARI Research Note


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Technical Report


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Relations Between Select21 Predictor Measures and First-term Attrition


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"This report summarizes attrition-related findings for Soldiers who participated in three Select21 reception battalion data collections: the pilot test (September-November 2003), faking research (January-February 2004), and field test (August-September 2004). The report provides estimates of the criterion-related validity of early for pre-concurrent validation versions of the Select21 predictor measures for predicting first-term attrition. As such, the results provided in this report speak to the potential of the measures for selecting future Soldiers who are likely to complete their service obligations"--P. i.




Organizational and Cultural Causes of Army First-Term Attrition


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The U.S. Army invests significant resources in recruiting, training, and preparing new soldiers. When a soldier does not complete a full contract term, the Army views this as a net loss. The goal of the research summarized in this report is to determine whether organizational factors matter for producing attrition and to generate hypotheses regarding the mechanisms by which organizational factors generate attrition. The authors made use of the random assignment of soldiers to their first battalion to determine whether the "luck of the draw"-the battalion to which the soldier is assigned and the senior noncommissioned officer (NCO) at that battalion-is directly linked to the observed variation across assignments in eventual first-term outcomes. The authors complemented that analysis with interviews exploring the factors that could be driving differences across units, such as leadership and command culture, availability of soldier supports, management of deployment and training cycles, and installation amenities. The quantitative part of the report shows that organizational factors affect attrition above and beyond the effects of soldier characteristics. The qualitative part highlights potential pathways through which battalion-level characteristics might manifest in differential attrition outcomes. Rather than conceptualizing attrition as a soldier being "fired" for poor performance, this report describes attrition as a process in which leadership may fail to provide needed interventions or to perpetuate a culture in which soldiers want to and are able to remain in service. The authors identify opportunities to address the factors under the Army's control that are associated with attrition. Book jacket.







Development and Evaluation of the Officer Transition Survey and Proxy Group Design


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"The work described in this report is an extension of the STAY project, with a directed focus on officer career continuance. An Officer Transition Survey (OTS) was developed to identify and examine the factors that influence junior officers to continue serving beyond their ADSO or separate from the Active Army. Career continuance factors and separation motives were identified and documented for 169 Active Army junior officers (O1-O3) who were actively out-processing at Army Transition Centers. Data were also collected from proxy samples that were comprised of 485 junior officers who were in the process of deciding whether to serve beyond their service obligation (officer proxy sample) and 68 experts who work closely with junior officers (expert proxy sample). Results indicated the OTS provides valid, empirical information regarding junior officers' career continuance influences and separation motives. Results also show that officer and expert proxy samples can be used to understand and quantify the motives of officers who are separating from the Active Army. These findings have important implications for collecting valid information using a more efficient, streamlined application of survey methodology that expends fewer resources."--P. i.




First-generation Students


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Assessing Fitness for Military Enlistment


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The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) faces short-term and long-term challenges in selecting and recruiting an enlisted force to meet personnel requirements associated with diverse and changing missions. The DoD has established standards for aptitudes/abilities, medical conditions, and physical fitness to be used in selecting recruits who are most likely to succeed in their jobs and complete the first term of service (generally 36 months). In 1999, the Committee on the Youth Population and Military Recruitment was established by the National Research Council (NRC) in response to a request from the DoD. One focus of the committee's work was to examine trends in the youth population relative to the needs of the military and the standards used to screen applicants to meet these needs. When the committee began its work in 1999, the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force had recently experienced recruiting shortfalls. By the early 2000s, all the Services were meeting their goals; however, in the first half of calendar year 2005, both the Army and the Marine Corps experienced recruiting difficulties and, in some months, shortfalls. When recruiting goals are not being met, scientific guidance is needed to inform policy decisions regarding the advisability of lowering standards and the impact of any change on training time and cost, job performance, attrition, and the health of the force. Assessing Fitness for Military Enlistment examines the current physical, medical, and mental health standards for military enlistment in light of (1) trends in the physical condition of the youth population; (2) medical advances for treating certain conditions, as well as knowledge of the typical course of chronic conditions as young people reach adulthood; (3) the role of basic training in physical conditioning; (4) the physical demands and working conditions of various jobs in today's military services; and (5) the measures that are used by the Services to characterize an individual's physical condition. The focus is on the enlistment of 18- to 24-year-olds and their first term of service.