A Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model for Honduras
Author : Samuel Morley
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 16,23 MB
Release : 2013-03-15
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
External shocks, food security, and development
Author : Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 47,47 MB
Release : 2016-12-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN :
Book Description
We conduct an ex ante evaluation of the impacts of a potential global recession within the next years and the possible policy responses to support economic activity and improve social indicators in five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We review the economic and social evolution of the past decades in those countries, and we consider a global scenario that includes further deceleration of world growth, lower commodity prices, and a decline in remittances and capital flows to those countries. We simulate those scenarios and related policy issues using recursive dynamic CGE models for the countries considered. The global shock is run under fixed exchange rates and flexible exchange rates (in the case of El Salvador, which has adopted the US dollar as the domestic currency, the simulation of a flexible exchange rate is just indicative). In all cases, a flexible exchange rate delivers better results in terms of GDP per capita, by softening the overall economic impact of the external shocks. Two possible interventions to deal with the recession are simulated: one focuses on policies to strengthen the safety net for the poor; the other applies a more general macroeconomic stimulus (a tax cut plus a modest increase in public investments, financed by un-conventional monetary policy) to try to cushion the shock. For all countries except El Salvador, these two simulations are run with a flexible exchange rate. In the first policy simulation GDP per capita in those countries does not change much, but the poor groups targeted clearly improve their incomes and consumption, helping them the most during the years of the negative shocks. In the second simulation, the macroeconomic stimulus improves the performance of the economies, allowing GDP per capita to be higher than in the case of the shock alone. In summary, facing a potential global downturn as the one simulated here, those countries that have flexible exchange rates and the use of domestic monetary policies can use a mix of adjustment in exchange rates combined with targeted poverty transfers and macroeconomic stimulus to alleviate the shock. El Salvador, which does not have the exchange rate and monetary instruments, will require further support from multilateral and bilateral sources to soften the shock
A Partial Equilibrium Model of the Malawi Maize Commodity Market
Author : Mariam A. T. J. Mapila
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 33,64 MB
Release : 2013-03-29
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
Book Description
This paper presents a model of the Malawi maize commodity market that is developed for use as a policy analysis tool. The model captures national and local maize market dynamics and the linkages existing within the maize market in the country. This research has been undertaken in order to provide policy makers with a robust tool which can be used to simulate the impact of policy changes on markets and households. Such a tool ensures the availability of evidence for informing food and agricultural policies. The model is a multiequation partial equilibrium model of the national maize market in Malawi. It is developed and linked in a top-down unidirectional manner to the local maize economy via a price linkage equation. A nonbehavioral arithmetic microaccounting approach is used to estimate rural household incomes that are linked to the local economy, through which macroeconomic-level maize price changes transmit. The model can be used as a tool for analyzing the impacts of macroeconomic and agricultural policy changes on the maize industry as well as on rural households that rely on maize. The novelty of the model is that it takes into account the interrelationships between farm/household, local-economy, and national maize market prices, as well as economic theory and existing empirical evidence, to build a framework that is capable of linking to the macroeconomy rural subsistence households that are traditionally deemed to have few or no backward and forward linkages.
Exchange Rate Policy and Devaluation in Malawi
Author : Karl Pauw
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 21,67 MB
Release : 2013-03-19
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
Book Description
The Malawian economy has in recent months been plagued by a severe foreign exchange crisis, fueled in part by a steadily rising import bill, sharp successive declines in tobacco export prices, the suspension of direct government budget support from several development partners in 2011, and an all-time low in international investor confidence. Up until the regime change in April 2012, the government resisted calls for a devaluation, which at the time resulted in a thriving parallel foreign exchange market. At its peak, the Malawi kwacha was trading at a premium of up to 100 percent in this secondary market. Economic theory shows that such a situation has adverse implications for an economy in terms of the balance-of-payments adjustment process and income distribution in the economy. Those with access to foreign exchange at the official rate are able to extract rents by selling foreign currency or imported goods at inflated prices. Imports sold domestically are then often valued at the parallel exchange rate rather than the official rate, with the parallel market rate serving as the only adjustment mechanism through which equilibrium can be restored in the balance of payments. This has a significant impact on domestic inflation to the detriment of consumers, while those with preferential access to foreign exchange at the official rate capture large rents. A simulation exercise using an economywide model for Malawi considers how the economy responds to different types of foreign exchange shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. While the foreign exchange crisis in itself has severe negative implications for the economy, our results suggest that the economy responds much better to these types of shocks under a flexible exchange rate regime (that is, devaluations or a free-floating currency). Our main simulation shows that under the latter policy, gross domestic product growth, although negative, is 1.5 percentage points higher than under a fixed exchange rate policy. Similarly, poverty is 6.9 percentage points lower. A relaxation of the exchange rate policy, however, is only part of the solution; in the longer run, good governance and sound macroeconomic policy that is conducive to growth are needed to address the underlying structural problems in the economy that also contribute to foreign exchange shortages.
Agricultural Mechanization in Ghana
Author : Nazaire Houssou
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 41,94 MB
Release : 2013-03-29
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
Book Description
Since 2007, the government of Ghana has been providing subsidized agricultural machines to private enterprises established as Agricultural Mechanization Services Enterprise Centers (AMSEC) to scale up tractor-hire services to smallholder farmers. Although farmers demand for mechanization has increased in recent years, most of this demand concentrates on land preparation (plowing) service. Using the firm investment model and recent data, this paper quantitatively assesses whether AMSEC as a private enterprise is a viable business model attractive to private investors. Even though the intention of the government is to promote private sector-led mechanization, findings suggest that the AMSEC model is unlikely to be a profitable business model attractive to private investors even with the current level of subsidy. The low tractor utilization rate as a result of low operational scale is the most important constraint to the intertemporal profitability of tractor-hire services. Our findings further support the argument of Pingali, Bigot, and Binswanger (1987), who indicated that mechanization service centers supported through governments heavy subsidy are not a policy option anywhere in the world, even in the current situation in Ghana. Although the tractor rental service market is a proper way of mechanizing agriculture in a smallholder-dominated agricultural economy such as Ghana, this paper concludes that the development of such a market depends crucially on a number of factors, including increased tractor use through migration across the two very different rainfall zones (north and south), increased tractor use through multiple tasks, and use of low-cost tractors. The government can play an important role in facilitating the development of a tractor service market; however, the successful development of such a market depends on the incentive and innovation of the private sector, including farmers who want to own tractors as part of their business portfolio, traders who know how to bring in affordable tractors and expand the market, and manufacturers in exporting countries who want to seek a long-term potential market opportunity in Ghana and in other west African countries.
Measuring Food Policy Research Capacity
Author : Suresh Chandra Babu
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 29,19 MB
Release : 2013-04-10
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
Book Description
Addressing emerging global poverty, hunger, and malnutrition challenges requires prudent evidence-based policymaking at the country level. Capacity for generating evidence remains a major constraint in the policy process in developing countries. We surveyed 30 countries to measure the capacity of their individuals, organizations, and policy process system to undertake food and agricultural policy research. Our Food Policy Research Capacity Index, constructed using measures of human capacity (PhD full-time equivalent researchers per million rural residents), human capacity productivity (publications per PhD full-time equivalent researcher), and strength of institutions (the government effectiveness pillar of the Worldwide Governance Indicators), showed substantial variation across countries, with the Republic of South Africa, Colombia, and Ghana scored far higher than countries with similarly sized rural populations such as Liberia, Laos, Burundi, and Afghanistan. Initial analysis showed that the index is strongly positively correlated with the Global Food Security Index and negatively correlated with the Global Hunger Index. Further work is planned to refine the indicators, particularly with regard to the effects of country size (population) and quality of the underlying data.
The Impact of Oportunidades on Human Capital and Income Distribution
Author : Dario Debowicz
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 11,54 MB
Release : 2013-04-05
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
Book Description
In an effort to inform social policy in Mexico, this paper analyzes the effects of a major social program on school attendance and household income distribution, accounting for its partial and general equilibrium effects. Linking a microeconometric simulation model and a general equilibrium model in a bidirectional way, the paper explicitly takes spillover effects of the Oportunidades conditional cash transfer program into account. Our results suggest that partial equilibrium analysis alone may underestimate the distributional effects of the program. Extending the coverage of the program leads to a significant increase in school attendance, which reduces labor supply and increases the equilibrium wages of the children who remain at work. This general equilibrium effect indirectly reduces income inequality and poverty at the national level.
Filling the learning gap in program implementation using participatory monitoring and evaluation
Author : Elias Zerfu
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 31,1 MB
Release : 2013-03-29
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
Book Description
This study is motivated by the idea that even though participatory monitoring and evaluation (PM&E) is widely accepted as a tool to manage development programs to be effective, its application is widely constrained by its high start-up resource requirements in terms of both finance and time. However, this paper argues that after the initial investment is made, the payback from using PM&E is much higher both in terms of grassroots-level learning, empowerment, and capacity building and in terms of higher-level strategic decision making which enhances impact. This is demonstrated using field-level experience of implementing PM&E in farmer field schools (FFSs) under the Agricultural Services Support Program and Agricultural Sector Development ProgramLivestock (ASSP/ASDP-L) program in Zanzibar, Tanzania. After describing the major steps followed in designing and implementing a PM&E for FFSs, the major lessons learned and challenges faced in the process are discussed. The study found out that PM&E has enabled the tracking of technology uptake and reasons behind adoption and nonadoption of technologies through detailed data collection. This informed and improved decision making at a higher level to design feasible methods to scale up adoption at other FFSs and to devise solutions for nonadoption. The need for incentives to undertake PM&E was found to be one of the major challenges of implementation, among others.
The Policy Landscape of Agricultural Water Management in Pakistan
Author : Noora-Lisa Aberman
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 39,1 MB
Release : 2013-04-13
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
Book Description
Irrigation is central to Pakistans agriculture; and managing the countrys canal, ground, and surface water resources in a more efficient, equitable, and sustainable way will be crucial to meeting agricultural production challenges, including increasing agricultural productivity and adapting to climate change. The water component of the International Food Policy Research Institutes Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP) is working to address these topics through high-quality research and policy engagement. As one of the first activities of this program, the PSSP undertook this assessment of the policy landscape for agricultural water management in Pakistan, to better understand how to engage with stakeholders in the landscape, and to assess possible opportunity points for improving water conservation. The authors use the Net-Map method, an interview tool that combines stakeholder mapping, power mapping, and social network analysis, to examine the relationships between various institutions influencing the water sector in Pakistan. Group interviews were conducted with national stakeholders in Islamabad and with provincial stakeholders in Lahore to establish separate influence maps at the different scales. Interviewees were asked about four types of network relationships: formal authority, informal pressure, technical information, and funding. Network data was analyzed using social network analysis software and notes from interviews add further depth to the network observations. Concluding discussion focuses on the distribution of power and influence in the network and on the opportunities and challenges of recent governance reforms and implications for stakeholder engagement.
Understanding the Role of Research in the Evolution of Fertilizer Policies in Malawi
Author : Michael Johnson
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 18,20 MB
Release : 2013-04-25
Category : Social Science
ISBN :
Book Description
This study examines the role of research in agricultural policy making in Malawi at a time when the Africa Union and the New Partnership for Africas Development have been seeking to promote greater evidenced-based decision making in agriculture. Drawing on both theory and actual past experiences documented in the literature, results are intended to improve our understanding of the extent to which research has played any role in influencing policy change in Malawi. This is done in the context of the evolution of the countrys fertilizer subsidy policies. Results point to some general lessons. First, strengthening the Ministry of Agricultures capacity for policy analysis and becoming more proactive in the policy process proved critical in the earlier years of Malawis long history of fertilizer subsidies. Second, the governments experience of bargaining with donors may have actually strengthened its own ability to position and assert its legitimacy in shaping policies. Third, while research may have played a historically marginal role, researchers have been able to influence policy choices whenever a window of opportunity arose for technical inputsuch as at times of crisis. However, researchers would also benefit from engaging more with the policy debates and policymaking process. Finally, while the paper draws on existing theoretical frameworks to understand the role of research in the policy process more generally, a better framework still needs to be developed in describing the standard experiences and realities of the African agricultural policy landscape.
