An Analysis of Repressed Inflation in Two Transition Economies


Book Description

We construct a simple model that tests for repressed inflation by estimating a "true" rate of inflation that explains behavior of observed money demand. We estimate the model using quarterly data for Czechoslovakia and Poland. Although our results should be viewed as preliminary, given the imperfect nature of our data, we do have strong evidence that, prior to 1991, there was considerable repressed inflation in Poland, while there was essentially no repressed inflation in Czechoslovakia.




Forced Savings and Repressed Inflation in the Soviet Union


Book Description

In countries such as the Soviet Union, where wealth is mainly stored in monetary assets, the behavior of the money to income ratio is a poor indicator of the growth of undesired monetary balances (monetary overhang). In those countries a monetary overhang is primarily a wealth overhang, which has to be analyzed by evaluating deviations of actual from desired wealth holdings; this requires an empirical analysis of consumption and saving decisions. In this paper, we present estimates of a consumption function for the Soviet Union, from which an evaluation of the monetary overhang existing at the end of 1990 is derived.




Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again


Book Description

Financial repression (legal restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations) was widely used in the past but was largely abandoned in the liberalization wave of the 1990s, as widespread support for interventionist policies gave way to a renewed conception of government as an impartial referee. Financial repression has come back on the agenda with the surge in public debt in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and some countries have reintroduced administrative ceilings on interest rates. By distorting market incentives and signals, financial repression induces losses from inefficiency and rent-seeking that are not easily quantified. This study attempts to assess some of these losses by estimating the impact of financial repression on growth using an updated index of interest rate controls covering 90 countries over 45 years. The results suggest that financial repression poses a significant drag on growth, which could amount to 0.4-0.7 percentage points.




AccessAsia


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Inflation in Czechoslovakia, 1985-91


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The American Bibliography of Slavic and East European Studies


Book Description

This bibliography, first published in 1957, provides citations to North American academic literature on Europe, Central Europe, the Balkans, the Baltic States and the former Soviet Union. Organised by discipline, it covers the arts, humanities, social sciences, life sciences and technology.




The Liquidation of Government Debt


Book Description

High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.




Economic Dynamics in Transitional Economies


Book Description

Learn more about the transitional economies of Central and Eastern Europe! This book examines the economic dynamics of Central and Eastern European post-Communist countries. It illuminates the paths these countries are taking toward restructuring their markets, increasing international trade, and bettering their connections with the European Union and other countries. Beginning with a comparative analysis of the three P-governmentsPigouvian, Partizan, and Paternalisticand continuing with a discussion of the interrelated political and economic difficulties of transition, author Bruno Sergi proposes a surprising solution. Inspired by the Bruxelles consensus, he proposes that the European Commission should become a fourth P-government, replacing the role formerly played by the Washington consensus in the restructuring of post-Communist economies. Economic Dynamics in Transitional Economies also explores: regional comparative macroeconomics the aftereffects of the Washington Consensus integration of Eastern and Western European economies interrelations between national and regional monetary activity political and economic policy reform involvement of European Union member countries We are living in historic times, and Economic Dynamics in Transitional Economies will be a welcome guide to the rough roads ahead. This thorough assessment of current political and economic realities will stimulate debate about new European paradigms, the role of the European Union, and the difficulties of post-Communist transition. These issues promise to be vital to the region’s success in the new century.