An International Comparison of Implied, Realized and GARCH Volatility Forecasts


Book Description

We compare the predictive ability and economic value of implied, realized and GARCH volatility models for 13 equity indices from 10 countries. Model ranking is similar across countries, but varies with the forecast horizon. At the daily horizon, the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model offers the most accurate predictions while an implied volatility model that corrects for the volatility risk premium is superior at the monthly horizon. Widely used GARCH models have inferior performance in almost all cases considered. All methods perform significantly worse over the 2008-09 crisis period. Finally, implied volatility offers significant improvements against historical methods for international portfolio diversification.




Forecasting Currency Volatility


Book Description

We compare forecasts of the realized volatility of the pound, mark and yen exchange rates against the dollar, calculated from intraday rates, over horizons ranging from one day to three months. Our forecasts are obtained from a short memory ARMA model, a long memory ARFIMA model, a GARCH model and option implied volatilities. We find intraday rates provide the most accurate forecasts for the one-day and one-week forecast horizons while implied volatilities are at least as accurate as the historical forecasts for the one-month and three-month horizons. The superior accuracy of the historical forecasts, relative to implied volatilities, comes from the use of high frequency returns, and not from a long memory specification. We find significant incremental information in historical forecasts, beyond the implied volatility information, for forecast horizons up to one week.




The Comparison of Forecasting Performance of Historical Volatility Versus Realized Volatility


Book Description

When forecasting stock market volatility with a standard volatility method (GARCH), it is common that the forecast evaluation criteria often suggests that the realized volatility (the sum of squared high-frequency returns) has a better prediction performance compared to the historical volatility (extracted from the close-to-close return). Since many extensions of the GARCH model have been developed, we follow the previous works to compare the historical volatility with many new GARCH family models (i.e., EGARCH, TGARCH, and APARCH model) and realized volatility with the ARMA model. Our analysis is based on the S&P 500 index from August 1st, 2018 to February 1st, 2019 (127 trading days), and the data has been separated into an estimation period (90 trading days) and an evaluation period (37 trading days). In the evaluation period, by taking realized volatility as the proxy of the true volatility, our empirical result shows that the realized volatility with ARMA model provides more accurate predictions, compared to the historical volatility with the GARCH family models.




Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets


Book Description

Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling




Volatility Forecasts and the At-the-Money Implied Volatility


Book Description

For a given time horizon $ DT$, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between $t$ and $t DT$), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at $t DT$), and several forecasts for the volatility build from multi-scales linear ARCH processes. The forecasts are derived from the process equations, and the parameters set { it a priori}. An empirical analysis across multiple time horizons $ DT$ shows that a forecast provided by an I-GARCH(1) process (1 time scale) does not capture correctly the dynamic of the realized volatility. An I-GARCH(2) process (2 time scales, similar to GARCH(1,1)) is better, while a long memory LM-ARCH process (multiple time scales) replicates correctly the dynamic of the realized volatility and delivers consistently good forecast for the implied volatility. The relationship between market models for the forward variance and the volatility forecasts provided by ARCH processes is investigated. The structure of the forecast equations is identical, but with different coefficients. Yet the process equations for the variance are very different (postulated for a market model, induced by the process equations for an ARCH model), and not of any usual diffusive type when derived from ARCH.




Handbook of Economic Forecasting


Book Description

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics




Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets


Book Description

Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets describes the existing techniques for the measurement and estimation of volatility in international stock markets with emphasis on the SV model and its empirical application. Eugenie Hol develops various extensions of the SV model, which allow for additional variables in both the mean and the variance equation. In addition, the forecasting performance of SV models is compared not only to that of the well-established GARCH model but also to implied volatility and so-called realised volatility models which are based on intraday volatility measures. The intended readers are financial professionals who seek to obtain more accurate volatility forecasts and wish to gain insight about state-of-the-art volatility modelling techniques and their empirical value, and academic researchers and students who are interested in financial market volatility and want to obtain an updated overview of the various methods available in this area.







Implied GARCH Volatility Forecasting


Book Description

This paper empirically investigates a method to quantify volatility using the information content of index options. We derive the parameters of a GARCH option pricing model from the term structure of the observed market smile of DAX 30 index. We find the EGARCH option pricing model (Duan, 1995) performs well in determining the shape of the volatility smile for different maturities in the period of January 2000 to August 2001. Based on the implied EGARCH methodology we use the information in option prices to derive a theoretically sound 'new' measure for local volatility and analyze how well it explains and forecasts actual realized volatility. The daily realized volatility measure is constructed with 5-minute interval transaction prices in the DAX 30 future. The local volatility measure explains a large part of realized volatility and performs considerably better in one day ahead volatility forecasting than conventional time-series models.




Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications


Book Description

A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.