Balance Sheet Network Analysis of Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems


Book Description

The 2008/9 financial crisis highlighted the importance of evaluating vulnerabilities owing to interconnectedness, or Too-Connected-to-Fail risk, among financial institutions for country monitoring, financial surveillance, investment analysis and risk management purposes. This paper illustrates the use of balance sheet-based network analysis to evaluate interconnectedness risk, under extreme adverse scenarios, in banking systems in mature and emerging market countries, and between individual banks in Chile, an advanced emerging market economy.




Cross-Border Financial Surveillance


Book Description

Effective cross-border financial surveillance requires the monitoring of direct and indirect systemic linkages. This paper illustrates how network analysis could make a significant contribution in this regard by simulating different credit and funding shocks to the banking systems of a number of selected countries. After that, we show that the inclusion of risk transfers could modify the risk profile of entire financial systems, and thus an enriched simulation algorithm able to account for risk transfers is proposed. Finally, we discuss how some of the limitations of our simulations are a reflection of existing information and data gaps, and thus view these shortcomings as a call to improve the collection and analysis of data on cross-border financial exposures.




A network analysis of global banking


Book Description

In this paper we explore the properties of the global banking network using cross-border bank lending data for 184 countries over 1978-2009. Specifically, we analyze financial interconnectedness using network metrics of centrality, connectivity, and clustering. We document a relatively unstable global banking network, with structural breaks in network indicators identifying several waves of capital flows. Interconnectedness rankings, especially for borrowers, are relatively volatile over the period. Connectivity tends to fall during and after systemic banking crises and sovereign debt crises. The 2008-09 global financial crisis stands out as an unusually large perturbation to the cross-border banking network.




Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU


Book Description

This paper applies network analysis to assess the extent of systemic vulnerabilities in the ECCU banking system. It includes two sets of illustrative stress tests. First, solvency and liquidity shocks to each individual bank and the impact on other banks in the network through their biltareal net asset exposures. Second, country and region-wide tail shocks to GDP affecting capital and liquidity of all banks in the shocked jurisdictions, followed by the rippling effects through the regional network. The results identify systemic institutions that merit hightened attention by the regulator, as determined by the degree of connectivity with the rest of the system, and the extent to which they are vulnerable to the failure of other banks.




Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance


Book Description

Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is key to understanding the macroeconomic outlook, identifying vulnerabilities, and tracing the transmission of potential shocks and policies. This paper reviews the use of balance sheet analysis in the Fund’s bilateral surveillance and introduces some practical examples of how it can be deepened. Recent evaluations of IMF surveillance––including the 2014 TSR––have emphasized the importance of strengthening balance sheet analysis and coverage of macro-financial issues. This paper is a first step that highlights useful examples of such analysis conducted by staff over the last decade, documents the data and tools that have been used, and mentions some limitations. In addition, it discusses recent improvements in the coverage and quality of balance sheet data through initiatives launched in the wake of the global crisis, as well as key remaining gaps, addressing which requires international collaboration.




A Guide to IMF Stress Testing


Book Description

The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).




Macroprudential Policy


Book Description




Understanding Financial Interconnectedness


Book Description

This paper seeks to advance our understanding of global financial interconnectedness by (i) mapping aspects of the architecture of global finance and (ii) investigating critical fault lines related to interconnectedness along which systemic risks were built up and shocks transmitted in the crisis. It thus takes initial steps toward operationalizing enhanced financial sector and macro-financial surveillance called for by the IMF’s Executive Board and by experts such as de Larosiere et al. (2009). Getting a better handle on interconnectedness would strengthen the Fund‘s ability, together with the Financial Stability Board, to track systemic risk concentrations. It would also inform spillover and vulnerability analyses, and sharpen bilateral and multilateral surveillance.




SYSTEMIC RISK IN BANKING


Book Description

Shortly after the financial crisis of 2007-2008 many authors began to write about certain “huge institutions” potentially able to damage the entire financial system through negative shocks, approaching the issue of systemic risk in banking through the evaluation of the so called “Too-Big-to-Fail” actors. While the size of a bank is certainly a factor of risk when considering systemic implications, this book also explores the properties of some deeply interconnected institutions. The author’s main intuition is based on the renowned work by Mark Granovetter on “The Strength of Weak Ties” and “Economic Action and Social Structure: The Problem of Embeddedness”: dangerous flows, like financial shocks, may travel very quickly through networks in unexpectedly efficient ways thanks to “Weak Ties”. The existence of weaker yet longer ties implies a naturally “robust yet fragile” network where even distant actors are closely interconnected, sharing both opportunities and risks. As a consequence, some nodes may act as key actors under the structural perspective. It is therefore critical for the central authority to identify and closely monitor said institutions. Thanks to a journey through the history of Social Network Analysis this book offers a complete overview on the evolution of the methodology and the most recent applications to systemic risk assessment, which are completed by a critical approach towards the “Too-Interconnected-to-Fail” perspective.




Mapping Financial Stability


Book Description

This book approaches macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of three tasks. The focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication into analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment. Generally, this book explores approaches for representing complex data concerning financial entities on low-dimensional displays. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. Accordingly, this book creates a Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), and lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. Beyond external risk communication, the aim of the visual means is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence.