Bounding Wrong-Way Risk in Measuring Counterparty Risk


Book Description

Counterparty risk measurement integrates two sources of risk: market risk, which determines the size of a firm's exposure to a counter party, and credit risk, which reflects the likelihood that the counterparty will default on its obligations. Wrong-way risk refers to the possibility that a counterparty's default risk increases with the market value of the exposure. We investigate the potential impact of wrong-way risk in calculating a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to a derivatives portfolio: CVA has become a standard tool for pricing counterparty risk and setting associated capital requirements. We present a method, introduced in our earlier work, for bounding the impact of wrong-way risk on CVA. The method holds fixed marginal models for market and credit risk while varying the dependence between them. Given simulated paths of the two models, we solve a linear program to find the worst-case CVA resulting from wrong way risk. The worst case can be overly conservative, so we extend the procedure by penalizing deviations of the joint model from a baseline model. By varying the penalty for deviations, we can sweep out the full range of possible CVA values for different degrees of wrong-way risk. Our method addresses an important source of model risk in counterparty risk measurement.




Bounding Wrong-Way Risk in CVA Calculation


Book Description

A credit valuation adjustment (CVA) is an adjustment applied to the value of a derivative contract or a portfolio of derivatives to account for counterparty credit risk. Measuring CVA requires combining models of market and credit risk to estimate a counterparty's risk of default together with the market value of exposure to the counterparty at default. Wrong-way risk refers to the possibility that a counterparty's likelihood of default increases with the market value of the exposure. We develop a method for bounding wrong-way risk, holding fixed marginal models for market and credit risk and varying the dependence between them. Given simulated paths of the two models, a linear program computes the worst-case CVA. We analyze properties of the solution and prove convergence of the estimated bound as the number of paths increases. The worst case can be overly pessimistic, so we extend the procedure by constraining the deviation of the joint model from a baseline reference model. Measuring the deviation through relative entropy leads to a tractable convex optimization problem that can be solved through the iterative proportional fitting procedure. Here, too, we prove convergence of the resulting estimate of the penalized worst-case CVA and the joint distribution that attains it. We consider extensions with additional constraints and illustrate the method with examples.




XVA Desks - A New Era for Risk Management


Book Description

Written by a practitioner with years working in CVA, FVA and DVA this is a thorough, practical guide to a topic at the very core of the derivatives industry. It takes readers through all aspects of counterparty credit risk management and the business cycle of CVA, DVA and FVA, focusing on risk management, pricing considerations and implementation.







Counterparty Credit Risk


Book Description

The first decade of the 21st Century has been disastrous for financial institutions, derivatives and risk management. Counterparty credit risk has become the key element of financial risk management, highlighted by the bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers and failure of other high profile institutions such as Bear Sterns, AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The sudden realisation of extensive counterparty risks has severely compromised the health of global financial markets. Counterparty risk is now a key problem for all financial institutions. This book explains the emergence of counterparty risk during the recent credit crisis. The quantification of firm-wide credit exposure for trading desks and businesses is discussed alongside risk mitigation methods such as netting and collateral management (margining). Banks and other financial institutions have been recently developing their capabilities for pricing counterparty risk and these elements are considered in detail via a characterisation of credit value adjustment (CVA). The implications of an institution valuing their own default via debt value adjustment (DVA) are also considered at length. Hedging aspects, together with the associated instruments such as credit defaults swaps (CDSs) and contingent CDS (CCDS) are described in full. A key feature of the credit crisis has been the realisation of wrong-way risks illustrated by the failure of monoline insurance companies. Wrong-way counterparty risks are addressed in detail in relation to interest rate, foreign exchange, commodity and, in particular, credit derivative products. Portfolio counterparty risk is covered, together with the regulatory aspects as defined by the Basel II capital requirements. The management of counterparty risk within an institution is also discussed in detail. Finally, the design and benefits of central clearing, a recent development to attempt to control the rapid growth of counterparty risk, is considered. This book is unique in being practically focused but also covering the more technical aspects. It is an invaluable complete reference guide for any market practitioner with any responsibility or interest within the area of counterparty credit risk.




The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking, Volume I


Book Description

This global handbook provides an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of shadow banking, or market-based finance as it has been recently coined. Engaging in financial intermediary services outside of normal regulatory parameters, the shadow banking sector was arguably a critical factor in causing the 2007-2009 financial crisis. This volume focuses specifically on shadow banking activities, risk, policy and regulatory issues. It evaluates the nexus between policy design and regulatory output around the world, paying attention to the concept of risk in all its dimensions—the legal, financial, market, economic and monetary perspectives. Particular attention is given to spillover risk, contagion risk and systemic risk and their positioning and relevance in shadow banking activities. Newly introduced and incoming policies are evaluated in detail, as well as how risk is managed, observed and assessed, and how new regulation can potentially create new sources of risk. Volume I concludes with analysis of what will and still needs to happen in the event of another crisis. Proposing innovative suggestions for improvement, including a novel Pigovian tax to tame financial and systemic risks, this handbook is a must-read for professionals and policy-makers within the banking sector, as well as those researching economics and finance.




Revisiting Risk-Weighted Assets


Book Description

In this paper, we provide an overview of the concerns surrounding the variations in the calculation of risk-weighted assets (RWAs) across banks and jurisdictions and how this might undermine the Basel III capital adequacy framework. We discuss the key drivers behind the differences in these calculations, drawing upon a sample of systemically important banks from Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific. We then discuss a range of policy options that could be explored to fix the actual and perceived problems with RWAs, and improve the use of risk-sensitive capital ratios.




Wrong-Way-Risk in Tails


Book Description

With new regulations like the credit valuation adjustment (CVA) the assessment of wrong-way-risk (WWR) is of utter importance. We analyze the effect of a counterparty's credit risk and its influence on other asset classes (equity, currency, commodity and interest rate) in the event of extreme market movements like the counterparty's default. With an extreme value approach we model the tail of the joint distribution of different asset returns belonging to the above asset classes and counterparty credit risk indicated by changes in CDS spreads and calculate the effect on the expected shortfall when conditioning on counterparty credit risk. We find the conditional expected shortfall to be 2% to 440% higher than the unconditional expected shortfall depending on the asset class. Our results give insights both for risk management as well as for setting an initial margin for non-centrally cleared derivatives which becomes mandatory in the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR).




Counterparty Credit Risk Modelling


Book Description

To enhance your understanding of the risk management, pricing and regulation of counterparty credit risk, this new title offers the most detailed and comprehensive coverage available. Michael Pykhtin, a globally respected expert in credit risk, has combed the industry's most important organisations to assemble a winning team of specialist contributors - presenting you with the definitive insider view.




Modelling, Pricing, and Hedging Counterparty Credit Exposure


Book Description

It was the end of 2005 when our employer, a major European Investment Bank, gave our team the mandate to compute in an accurate way the counterparty credit exposure arising from exotic derivatives traded by the ?rm. As often happens, - posure of products such as, for example, exotic interest-rate, or credit derivatives were modelled under conservative assumptions and credit of?cers were struggling to assess the real risk. We started with a few models written on spreadsheets, t- lored to very speci?c instruments, and soon it became clear that a more systematic approach was needed. So we wrote some tools that could be used for some classes of relatively simple products. A couple of years later we are now in the process of building a system that will be used to trade and hedge counterparty credit ex- sure in an accurate way, for all types of derivative products in all asset classes. We had to overcome problems ranging from modelling in a consistent manner different products booked in different systems and building the appropriate architecture that would allow the computation and pricing of credit exposure for all types of pr- ucts, to ?nding the appropriate management structure across Business, Risk, and IT divisions of the ?rm. In this book we describe some of our experience in modelling counterparty credit exposure, computing credit valuation adjustments, determining appropriate hedges, and building a reliable system.