Complexity, Heterogeneity, and the Methods of Statistical Physics in Economics


Book Description

This book systematically provides a prospective integrated approach for complexity social science in its view of statistical physics and mathematics, with an impressive collection of the knowledge and expertise of leading researchers from all over the world. The book mainly covers both finitary methods of statistical equilibrium and data-driven analysis by econophysics. The late Professor Masanao Aoki of UCLA, who passed away at the end of July 2018, in his later years dedicated himself to the reconstruction of macroeconomics mainly in terms of statistical physics. Professor Aoki, who was already an IEEE fellow, was also named an Econometric Society Fellow in 1979. Until the early 1990s, however, his contributions were focused on the new developments of a novel algorithm for the time series model and their applications to economic data. Those contributions were undoubtedly equivalent to the Nobel Prize-winning work of Granger's "co-integration method". After the publications of his New Approaches to Macroeconomic Modeling and Modeling Aggregate Behavior and Fluctuations in Economics, both published by Cambridge University Press, in 1996 and 2002, respectively, his contributions rapidly became known and spread throughout the field. In short, these new works challenged econophysicists to develop evolutionary stochastic dynamics, multiple equilibria, and externalities as field effects and revolutionized the stochastic views of interacting agents. In particular, the publication of Reconstructing Macroeconomics, also by Cambridge University Press (2007), in cooperation with Hiroshi Yoshikawa, further sharpened the process of embodying “a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes” in economic modeling. Interestingly, almost concurrently with Prof. Aoki’s newest development, similar approaches were appearing. Thus, those who were working in the same context around the world at that time came together, exchanging their results during the past decade. In memory of Prof. Aoki, this book has been planned by authors who followed him to present the most advanced outcomes of his heritage.




Reconstruction of Macroeconomics: Methods of Statistical Physics, and Keynes' Principle of Effective Demand


Book Description

This book explains how standard micro-founded macroeconomics is misguided and proposes an alternative method based on statistical physics. The Great Recession following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2015 amply demonstrated that mainstream micro-founded macroeconomics was in trouble. The new approach advanced in this book reasonably explains important macro-problems such as employment, business cycles, growth, and inflation/deflation. The key concept is demand failures, which modern micro-founded macroeconomics has ignored. “It (Chapter 3) captures analytically a good part of the intuition that underlies the Keynesian economics of people like Tobin and me.” Robert Solow, Emeritus Institute Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Nobel Laureate in Economics, 1987 “Professor Hiroshi Yoshikawa provides a unique synthesis of statistical physics and macro-economic theory in order to confront the dismal failure in economics and in finance to understand how an economy or a financial market works, given the heterogeneous decision making of many different individual interacting actors. Economics has failed in this regard with the naive and often misleading concept of “representative agents.” The author presents many insights on the historical development, concepts, and errors made by the most illustrious economists in the past. This book should be essential readings for any economics students as well as academic researchers and policy makers, who should learn to bring back good-sense thinking in their impactful decisions.” Didier Sornette, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich)




Information Geometry


Book Description

The subject of information geometry blends several areas of statistics, computer science, physics, and mathematics. The subject evolved from the groundbreaking article published by legendary statistician C.R. Rao in 1945. His works led to the creation of Cramer-Rao bounds, Rao distance, and Rao-Blackawellization. Fisher-Rao metrics and Rao distances play a very important role in geodesics, econometric analysis to modern-day business analytics. The chapters of the book are written by experts in the field who have been promoting the field of information geometry and its applications. - Written by experts for users of information geometry - Basics to advanced readers are equally taken care - Origins and Clarity on Foundations




New Insights on Principal Component Analysis


Book Description

This book on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) extensively explores the core analyses and case studies within this field, incorporating the latest advancements. Each chapter delves into various disciplines like engineering, administration, economics, and technology, showcasing diverse applications and the utility of PCA. The book emphasizes the integration of PCA with other algorithms and methodologies, highlighting the enhancements achieved through combined approaches. Moreover, the book elucidates updated versions or iterations of PCA, detailing their descriptions and practical applications.




Big Data Analysis on Global Community Formation and Isolation


Book Description

In this book, the authors analyze big data on global interdependence caused by the flows of commodities, money, and people, using a network science approach to obtain differing views of globalization and to clarify the facts on isolation of communities. Globalization reduces international economic inequality, i.e., it allows emerging countries to catch up while it increases relative poverty in some advanced countries. How should this trade-off between international and domestic inequalities be resolved? At the same time, the reduction of biocultural diversity caused by globalization needs to be avoided. What kind of change is required in local communities to conserve biocultural diversity? On the issue of commodity flow, research results of the supply-chain network, isolation in industry, and resource flows and stocks are presented in this book. For monetary flow, ownership networks, value-added networks, and profit shifting were studied; and regarding the flow of people, linkage of ethnic groups, immigrant assimilation, and refugees were examined. Based on the resulting view of globalization and isolation, the development of the isolation index using machine learning is discussed. Finally, recommendations for evidence-based policymaking in the United Nations are considered.







Macro-Econophysics


Book Description

The concepts of statistical physics and big data play an important role in the evidence-based analysis and interpretation of macroeconomic principles. The techniques of complex networks, big data, and statistical physics are useful to understand theories of economic systems, and the authors have applied these to understand the intricacies of complex macroeconomic problems. Recent research work using tools and techniques of big data, statistical physics, complex networks, and statistical science is covered, and basic graph algorithms and statistical measures of complex networks are described. The application of big data and statistical physics tools to assess price dynamics, inflation, systemic risks, and productivity is discussed. Chapter-end summary and numerical problems are provided to reinforce understanding of concepts.




21st Century Economics: A Reference Handbook


Book Description

Interest in economics is at an all-time high. Among the challenges facing the nation is an economy with rapidly rising unemployment, failures of major businesses and industries, and continued dependence on oil with its wildly fluctuating price. Economists have dealt with such questions for generations, but they have taken on new meaning and significance. Tackling these questions and encompassing analysis of traditional economic theory and topics as well as those that economists have only more recently addressed, 21st Century Economics: A Reference Handbook is a must-have reference resource. Key Features Provides highly readable summaries of theory and models in key areas of micro and macroeconomics, helpful for students trying to get a "big picture" sense of the field Includes introductions to relevant theory as well as empirical evidence, useful for readers interested in learning about economic analysis of an issue as well for students embarking on research projects Features chapters focused on cutting-edge topics with appeal for economists seeking to learn about extensions of analysis into new areas as well as new approaches Presents models in graphical format and summarizes empirical evidence in ways that do not require much background in statistics or econometrics, so as to maximize accessibility to students




Finitary Probabilistic Methods in Econophysics


Book Description

Econophysics applies the methodology of physics to the study of economics. However, whilst physicists have good understanding of statistical physics, they may be unfamiliar with recent advances in statistical conjectures, including Bayesian and predictive methods. Equally, economists with knowledge of probabilities do not have a background in statistical physics and agent-based models. Proposing a unified view for a dynamic probabilistic approach, this book is useful for advanced undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in physics, economics and finance. The book takes a finitary approach to the subject, discussing the essentials of applied probability, and covering finite Markov chain theory and its applications to real systems. Each chapter ends with a summary, suggestions for further reading, and exercises with solutions at the end of the book.




A Crude Look at the Whole


Book Description

A top expert explains why a social and economic understanding of complex systems will help society to anticipate and confront our biggest challenges Imagine trying to understand a stained glass window by breaking it into pieces and examining it one shard at a time. While you could probably learn a lot about each piece, you would have no idea about what the entire picture looks like. This is reductionism -- the idea that to understand the world we only need to study its pieces -- and it is how most social scientists approach their work. In A Crude Look at the Whole, social scientist and economist John H. Miller shows why we need to start looking at whole pictures. For one thing, whether we are talking about stock markets, computer networks, or biological organisms, individual parts only make sense when we remember that they are part of larger wholes. And perhaps more importantly, those wholes can take on behaviors that are strikingly different from that of their pieces. Miller, a leading expert in the computational study of complex adaptive systems, reveals astounding global patterns linking the organization of otherwise radically different structures: It might seem crude, but a beehive's temperature control system can help predict market fluctuations and a mammal's heartbeat can help us understand the "heartbeat" of a city and adapt urban planning accordingly. From enduring racial segregation to sudden stock market disasters, once we start drawing links between complex systems, we can start solving what otherwise might be totally intractable problems. Thanks to this revolutionary perspective, we can finally transcend the limits of reductionism and discover crucial new ideas. Scientifically founded and beautifully written, A Crude Look at the Whole is a powerful exploration of the challenges that we face as a society. As it reveals, taking the crude look might be the only way to truly see.