Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960–98


Book Description

The paper concludes that world copper prices play an important role in short-term fluctuations and probably influence long-term growth of the Chilean economy. While many mechanisms may be at work, investment seems to play a major role. In a copper price boom, the higher copper price and associated capital inflows create upward pressure on the real exchange rate. The appreciation of the Chilean peso during the first part of the copper cycle contributes to lower inflation, which could partly explain why real wages grow more rapidly in this part of the cycle.




Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries


Book Description

This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.




Chile


Book Description

This Selected Issues paper examines the effect of lower copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. This paper discusses the copper outlook and suggests that the fall in copper prices is likely to have a persistent (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth. It argues that copper prices are unlikely to return to historical highs in the near future. The paper also provides theoretical and empirical evidence supporting the view that long-term GDP growth will not be affected, but the transition toward a lower GDP level can take up to a decade.




Chile


Book Description

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.




Commodity Terms of Trade


Book Description

This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.







End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers


Book Description

This paper estimates the effect of copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. We find that a price decline is likely to have a durable (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth: while the impact is the strongest in the first 3 years after the shock, the transition towards the new lower steady-state GDP level generally takes 5–10 years. From a production function perspective, the GDP growth slowdown is mainly driven by lower capital accumulation.




Living in a Material World


Book Description

At a time when the world is grappling with rising food and energy prices and climate change, Living in a Material World provides an insight into some of the contributing factors behind these challenges. The emergence of new consumers in China, India, Russia and the Middle East has added formidable competition to the natural resources that have been taken for granted in the developed world. Everything we consume involves the use of metals, fossil fuels or agriculture. Our high tech 'lifestyles' depend on the secure supply of these raw materials which we take from planet earth and use to make our lives more comfortable, more productive or more manageable. The effect of this increasing global demand for commodities has pushed up prices of materials from oil and copper to corn and wheat; forcing consumers to pay more for the many 'necessities' of life, from a loaf of bread to electricity bills. Since the commodity boom has unfolded, commodities have gone from the back page of the newspaper to the front; with more and more headlines about record food and oil prices, dire climate change warnings, energy security and China's demand for more raw materials. This era of high oil and food prices is no passing phase: The supply of many key natural resources is stretched to the limit. But what is the real cost? Living in a Material World makes the link between raw materials and the consumer, and shows how they are relevant to everybody, everyday - now more so than at any time since the last oil shock nearly three decades ago. A unique insight into this 'once in a generation' boom, the book shows how the increasing value of commodities is impacting on consumers and investors, in ways we are only just beginning to understand. "It was a great pleasure to read this book which provides an essential background to understanding commodities for anybody interested in understanding them more closely. It is so rare to see all the essential elements brought together in one book." –Chris Brodie, Krom River Partners LLP "Kevin Morrison set out to write a book about the daily relevance that raw materials have for the ordinary consumer. He has achieved his objective par excellence. The subject matter has been comprehensively researched and well documented - yet the writer has avoided using complicated technical language. The style of the book is more in tune with a novel and the main topics are treated with a special sense of humour. I would readily recommend this work to anyone interested in how global energy issues have a direct affect on us all." –Mehdi Varzi, President, Varzi Energy, London







Economic Policies and Programs in South America


Book Description