The Dictator's Learning Curve


Book Description

In this riveting anatomy of authoritarianism, acclaimed journalist William Dobson takes us inside the battle between dictators and those who would challenge their rule. Recent history has seen an incredible moment in the war between dictators and democracy—with waves of protests sweeping Syria and Yemen, and despots falling in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. But the Arab Spring is only the latest front in a global battle between freedom and repression, a battle that, until recently, dictators have been winning hands-down. The problem is that today’s authoritarians are not like the frozen-in-time, ready-to-crack regimes of Burma and North Korea. They are ever-morphing, technologically savvy, and internationally connected, and have replaced more brutal forms of intimidation with subtle coercion. The Dictator’s Learning Curve explains this historic moment and provides crucial insight into the fight for democracy.




Aiding Democracy Abroad


Book Description

Aid to promote democracy abroad has emerged as a major growth industry in recent years. Not only the United States but many other Western countries, international institutions, and private foundations today use aid to support democratic transitions in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Though extensive in scope, these activities remain little understood outside the realm of specialists. Debates among policymakers over democracy promotion oscillate between unhelpful poles of extreme skepticism and unrealistic boosterism, while the vast majority of citizens in aid-providing countries have little awareness of the democracy-building efforts their governments sponsor. Aiding Democracy Abroad is the first independent, comprehensive assessment of this important new field. Drawing on extensive field research and years of hands-on experience, Thomas Carothers examines democracy-aid programs relating to elections, political parties, governmental reform, rule of law, civil society, independent media, labor unions, decentralization, and other elements of what he describes as "the democracy template" that policymakers and aid officials apply around the world. Steering a careful path between the inflated claims of aid advocates and the exaggerated criticisms of their opponents, Carothers takes a hard look at what such programs achieve and how they can be improved.




The J Curve


Book Description

Locate nations on the J Curve -- left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter by further isolating them. The West's isolation of Kim Jong-il's North Korea gives him the cover he needs to extend his brutal regime (the mistake the U.S. made for a long time with Saddam Hussein and Castro); in Saudi Arabia, western governments should encourage manageable change before the country breaks apart; they should help strengthen China's economy so it can further liberalize; they must encourage Israel to decide what kind of country it will be. Filled with imaginative and surprising examples of how to correct outworn political ideas, The J Curve points the way for western governments to lead the way to a realistic political balance and a healthier economic future.




Democracy as a Curve


Book Description

This paper attempts to model the relationship between economic growth and democratization, with an emphasis on non-linearities. I adopt and explore the concept of “political capital” as a measure of democracy, which is extremely uncommon in the literature and brings considerable advantages in dynamic terms. My results indicate that the impact of democratization on growth is significant and does vary according to the stage of democratic development each country is in, which is likely to be an important factor in explaining the academic dissonance regarding this topic. Broadly, I find that initial democratization enacts a stronger and positive change in economic performance, which then subsides until a level of near zero at the intermediate democracy level. For more evolved democracies, further democratization may impact growth negatively, negligibly or positively (albeit more weakly so than in the initial stages). Additionally, this relationship is found to be significant both when accounting for more and less direct effects of democracy. Results for the more direct avenue are more optimistic, implying that the indirect impacts of democracy on growth, as a whole, might be negative. For most estimations, a (minimum) level of democracy that maximizes growth is found, which I call the “democracy maximum”. My results suggest this occurs for a democracy level of, on a scale of 1 to 10, around or above 6.







The Second Curve


Book Description

Britain's leading guru looks to the future. Charles Handy is one of the giants of contemporary thought. His books on management – including Understanding Organizations and Gods of Management – have changed the way we view business. His work on broader issues and trends – such as Beyond Certainty – has changed the way we view society. In The Second Curve, Handy builds on a life's work to glimpse into the future and see what challenges and opportunities lie ahead. He looks at current trends in capitalism and asks whether it is a sustainable system. He explores the dangers of a society built on credit. He challenges the myth that remorseless growth is essential. He even asks whether we should rethink our roles in life – as students, parents, workers and voters – and what the aims of an ideal society of the future should be. Provocative and thoughtful as ever, he sets out the questions we all need to ask ourselves – and points us in the direction of some of the answers.







Dividing the Rulers


Book Description

The election of populist politicians in recent years seems to challenge the commitment to democracy, if not its ideal. This book argues that majority rule is not the problem; rather, the institutions that stabilize majorities are responsible for the suppression of minority interests. Despite the popular notion that social choice instability (or “cycling”) makes it impossible for majorities to make sound legislation, Yuhui Li argues that the best part of democracy is not the large number of people on the winning side; it is that the winners can be easily divided and realigned with the losers in the cycling process. He shows that minorities’ bargaining power depends on their ability to exploit division within the winning coalition and induce its members to defect, an institutionalized uncertainty that is missing in one-party authoritarian systems. Dividing the Rulers theorizes why such division within the majority is important and what kind of institutional features can help a democratic system maintain such division, which is crucial in preventing the “tyranny of the majority.” These institutional solutions point to a direction of institutional reform that academics, politicians, and voters should collectively pursue.




The Dictator's Learning Curve


Book Description

In this riveting anatomy of the new face of authoritarianism, acclaimed journalist William Dobson takes us inside the battle between modern dictators and those who challenge their rule. From Tahrir Square to the Kremlin, we have witnessed an incredible moment in the war between dictators and democracy. The problem is that today's authoritarians are not like the frozen-in-time, ready-to-crack regime of North Korea. They are ever-morphing, technologically savvy, and have replaced more brutal forms of intimidation with subtle coercion. But as dictators have become more nimble, so have the inspiring people who oppose their rule. The Dictator's Learning Curve explains this historic moment and offers hope for the future of freedom. 'Says something really fresh about the world we live in' Sunday Telegraph 'Timely, authoritative and as readable as a novel' Prospect




Governance for Peace


Book Description

An evidence-based analysis of governance focusing on the institutional capacities and qualities that reduce the risk of armed conflict.