Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?


Book Description

There is considerable evidence from industrial countries that the output gap is an important determinant of inflation. We examine whether the gap model also works in developing, newly industrializing, and industrial Asian economies. Our output gaps are based on a new nonparametric estimation procedure for trend output that does not require an arbitrary specification of the degree to which the data are smoothed. We test simple versions of the gap model in which the change in inflation is related to the output gap, as well as to the money supply and the terms of trade. We conclude that the gap model works very well in almost all of the Asian economies we study.




IMF Staff papers


Book Description

This paper argues that an important group of labor market policies are complementary in the sense that the effect of each policy is greater when implemented in conjunction with the other policies than in isolation. This may explain why the diverse, piecemeal labor market reforms in many European countries in recent years have had so little success in reducing unemployment. What is required instead is deeper labor market reforms across a broader range of complementary policies and institutions. To be politically feasible, these reforms must be combined with measures to address distributional issues.




The Domestic and Foreign Price Gaps in the P-STAR Model


Book Description

The paper uses the P-STAR model to analyze Spanish prices from 1970 to 1996, adding the foreign price gap to the standard domestic definition of the P-STAR model (the domestic price gap) to assess the role German price movements played in Spanish inflation. The domestic price gap turns out to be the major explanatory variable for inflation, even after the entrance of Spain in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM). This result suggests that the successful disinflation experienced in Spain in the past few years may be more related to domestic conditions than to foreign ones.




India and South Asia


Book Description

South Asia has become a major center of attention on the world stage with the U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan since 9/11, the ongoing concern over Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan, and India's emergence as a regional economic power. In addition, the age-old problems of South Asia - mass poverty, poor infrastructure, misgovernance, rampant corruption, political uncertainty, and regional wars - add to the increased interest in the region. Incorporating the most current information available, the expert international contributors to this handbook examine the economies and geo-political developments of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan. They focus on three core areas of importance: trade and development in the post-WTO era of globalization; macroeconomic adjustment and economic growth; and poverty, governance, the war on terror, and social indicators. With its cutting edge analysis, the handbook is an essential reference for all students, researchers, and practitioners dealing with the region.







Sweden


Book Description

This Selected Issues paper describes a variety of methodologies for estimating a country’s potential output level and presents empirical estimates for Sweden. The paper explains why these methods produce a variety of results, some of which are more plausible than others. The paper looks more closely at one aspect of growth in potential output: how it has been affected by the structural policy improvements of the past several years. The paper examines the pattern of output and unemployment over time to separate permanent changes from cyclical and other temporary changes.




Indonesia


Book Description

Over the past decade, Indonesia has developed into an important regional and global economy, as well as an active participant in the G20. The chapters in this book document the substantial improvements in the quality of macroeconomic policy that Indonesia has achieved, while also clearly laying out an agenda of measures that should be taken to safeguard these gains and further lower vulnerabilities going forward. Rather than just demonstrating progress in key macroeconomic indicators, the contributors have delved into the ways that global volatility, especially since 2008, has affected Indonesia and how that country has adjusted its policies to meet the new challenges.




The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries


Book Description

Inflation targeting (IT) serves as monetary policy framework in several advanced economies, where it has enhanced policy transparency and accountability. The paper considers its wider applicability to developing countries. The prerequisites for a successful IT framework are identified as an ability to carry out an independent monetary policy (free of fiscal dominance or commitment to another nominal anchor, like the exchange rate) and a quantitative framework linking policy instruments to inflation. These prerequisites are largely absent among developing countries, though several of them could with some further institutional changes and an overriding commitment to low inflation make use of an IT framework.




Open Economy Macroeconomics in East Asia


Book Description

The East Asia countries were among the fastest growing economies in the world and of increasing importance to the world economy. These countries have taken the lead in adopting outward-oriented development policies. This volume focuses on the major issues on open economy macroeconomics in the East Asia economies that will be instructive to both academics and policymakers. The emphasis is on the countries that were severely affected by the 1997/98 Asian financial crises. Several aspects of exchange rate, current account, budget deficits, monetary and financial issues are considered in this book. In addition, several chapters are devoted to discussion on the issues of economic integration in the region. The contagion and the currency crisis are also discussed thoroughly. Most of the chapters are empirical in nature and the empirical evidence provided is based on the recent development in time series econometrics methods.







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