Global Economic Prospects, June 2021


Book Description

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.




Global Productivity


Book Description

The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD




Economic Growth and Development Policy


Book Description

This book provides the theoretical and analytical background necessary to understanding the process of growth and the implementation of economic policies. First, it presents the growth theory landscape and the evolution of growth as well as modern growth theory arguments where the policy implications of the theoretical approaches are set. The book then covers the relationship between policy and growth, discussing not only the growth prototypes that prevail but also their relation to politics and economic policy formation and decision making. In this context, policy formation determinants, as well as the targets, instruments, and policy implementations, are crucial. The role of structural changes and structural reforms and their relationship with economic growth is also analyzed. The book ends with an interdisciplinary study of how institutions and cultural background, entrepreneurship and innovation affect policy formation.




Global Economic Prospects, June 2020


Book Description

The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers' immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.




Infrastructure Economics and Policy


Book Description

In this comparison of infrastructure across countries and sectors, leading international academics and practitioners consider the latest approaches to infrastructure policy, implementation, and finance. The book presents evidence-based solutions and policy considerations, essential concepts and economic theories, and a current overview.




The Long Shadow of Informality


Book Description

A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.




Leveraging Services for Development


Book Description

The services economy is on the rise all around the world, and services now comprise the largest share of economic activity and employment in almost every country. This book presents the latest evidence demonstrating how technologies and globalization have transformed the services industry. Services are becoming increasingly tradable under World Trade Organization rules and regional trade agreements, and some services subsectors are also seeing rates of productivity growth comparable to that in manufacturing. At the same time, services are increasingly contributing to manufacturing success, and countries’ overall economic competitiveness now hinges crucially on the availability of high-quality and affordable services inputs. Furthermore, a well-functioning services sector can accelerate human development through better access to basic needs, such as education, energy, finance, health, water, and sanitation. Services can also be a source of good jobs with fewer negative environmental and social externalities. Overall, the ongoing structural transformation toward a services economy is a unique opportunity to achieve long-term income growth, which in turn promotes sustainable development. This book offers suggestions on how to achieve this, and is thus an indispensable read for researchers and policy makers alike.




Global Economic Prospects, January 2020


Book Description

The global economy is in a broad-based cyclical recovery. Investment, manufacturing and trade are on the rebound. Financing conditions are benign, monetary policies are generally accommodative, and the worst impacts of the recent commodity price collapse have begun to dissipate. However, the global economic outlook remains clouded by a number of risks. These include the possibility of financial market disruptions, rising protectionist sentiment, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Of particular concern is evidence of subdued productivity and slowing potential growth. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the causes of the broad-based slowing of potential growth and suggests remedies. The report also contains Special Focus sections on the impact of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse and the relationship between education demographics and global inequality. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.




Ideas, Policies and Economic Development in the Americas


Book Description

The interplay of ideas and policies is central to understanding the historical evolution of economies. Ideas shape economic institutions and real economic constraints are the source of new economic ideas. The history of economic ideas, both those that are fairly recent and those that are considerably older, may provide a fertile ground for new appr




Economics in Christian Perspective


Book Description

Victor Claar and Robin Klay introduce students to the basic principles of economics and then evaluate the principles and issues as seen from a Christian perspective. This textbook places the economic life in the context of Christian discipleship and stewardship. This text is for use in any course needing a survey of the principles of economics.