Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures


Book Description

Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.




Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures


Book Description

Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. An essential reference for experts concerned with geopolitical and geoeconomic futures. -- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics The way the authors have integrated the International Futures model into scenario analysis is very instructive and amounts to a useful methodological contribution to the literature on scenario analysis. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecasting exercises that take economic growth as exogenous to the energy markets and ignore political factors. -- Peter Hartley, Mitchell Professor of Economics and Rice Scholar in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute, Rice University Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson have written an interesting and original book in which they analyze several different scenarios for economic growth, energy prices, and international conflict over the next forty years in an engaging and accessible style. I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to understand the range of possible futures. -- James Morrow, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan




The New Energy Crisis


Book Description

Global warming reveals that world energy consumption is on an unsustainable path. This updated second edition of The New Energy Crisis examines the impact of climate change on energy economics and geopolitics, exploring key issues such as energy poverty, renewable and nuclear energy, and focusing on the implications of the Fukushima crisis.




New Energy, New Geopolitics


Book Description

This report evaluates the energy and geopolitical shifts that have arisen from the production of shale gas and light tight oil in the United States. It begins by assessing how much the unconventional energy trend has already impacted energy, geopolitics, and national security. The report then posits several possible energy futures that could emerge from the unconventionals revolution. Finally, it offers views on the major geostrategic question: how will the United States seek to utilize this, so far, domestic resource trend, and given the range of potential future energy outcomes, what might the geopolitical and national security implications be. This report pairs with three background reports, all available from Rowman & Littlefield: New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 1: Energy Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 2: Geopolitical and National Security Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 3: Scenarios, Strategies, and Pathways




The Geopolitics of Energy


Book Description

Rarely has the world's energy sector known such a complicated and fragile environment as that being experienced in 2011. Energy demand is increasing rapidly because of growth in the developing countries. It is largely met by fossil fuels : oil, natural gas and coal, and also by hydraulic and nuclear power. The use of all these forms of energy now gives rise to controversy. A year after the uncontrollable oil leaks from the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, the consequences of the accident are still being debated. The development of shale gas, currently the source of half natural gas production in the United States, meets strong opposition in a number of European countries. Even more serious, the accident at Fukushima has put into question the future development of nuclear power, particularly in Europe but also in the USA. There is considerable criticism of the use of coal, which is the source for most of the energy needs in China and a number of developing countries, because of its emissions of CO2 and other pollutants. Even traditional biomass, whose use leads to deforestation and to respiratory diseases, and the development of hydraulic power are the subject of debate. How should one judge between these different energies ? How can decisions be taken between reducing consumption and increasing production ? What is the future for new renewable energies ? These are the issues at stake on the energy sector. This book appears just at the right time to provide clear and well documented replies to the questions that all of us, as energy users, are posing. How are the different forms of energy produced ? What does the future hold for them ? Who are the players active in the energy scene ? What are the supply constraints ? What is the impact of the strong growth in India and China on energy resources ? The book is in two parts. The first sets out the major characteristics of the energy sector. The second provides an analysis of the global energy issues region by region and details the geopolitical aspects. This work is well illustrated and accessible to all, as it does not require any specific prior knowledge. It will particularly interest readers seeking a global perspective of a sector that is fundamental both to our economy and also for our international policies.




The New Politics of Strategic Resources


Book Description

Since 2008, energy and food markets—those most fundamental to human existence—have remained in turmoil. Resource scarcity has had a much bigger global impact in recent years than has been predicted, with ongoing volatility a sign that the world is only part-way through navigating a treacherous transition in the way it uses resources. Scarcity, and perceptions of scarcity, increase political risks, while geopolitical turmoil exacerbates shortages and complicates the search for solutions. The New Politics of Strategic Resources examines the political dimensions of strategic resource challenges at the domestic and international levels. For better or worse, energy and food markets are shaped by perceptions of national interest and do not behave as traditional market goods. So while markets are an essential part of any response to tighter resource supplies, governments also will play a key role. David Steven, Emily O'Brien, Bruce Jones, and their colleagues discuss what those roles are and what they should be. The architecture for coordinating multilateral responses to these dynamics has fallen short, raising questions about the effective international management of these issues. Politics impede here too, as the major powers must negotiate political and security trade-offs to cooperate on the design of more robust international regimes and mechanisms for resource security and the provision of global public goods. This timely volume includes chapters on major powers (United States, India, China) and key suppliers (Russia, Saudi Arabia). The contributors also address thematic topics, such as the interaction between oil and state fragility; the changing political dynamics of climate change; and the politics of resource subsidies.




New Energy, New Geopolitics


Book Description

The second background report in the New Energy, New Geopolitics series, this report evaluates the geopolitical and national security impacts of the dramatic increase in the production of shale gas and light tight oil in the United States. It examines how the unconventional energy trend has already impacted U.S. national security and geopolitics and then posits several possible energy futures that could emerge from the unconventional revolution. This report pairs with the original "New Energy, New Geopolitics" report and two other background reports, all available from Rowman & Littlefield: New Energy, New Geopolitics: Balancing Stability and Leverage New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 1: Energy Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 3: Scenarios, Strategies, and Pathways




Europe’s Energy Transition


Book Description

Europe’s Energy Transition: Insights for Policy Making looks at the availability and cost of accessing energy and how it significantly affects economic growth and competitiveness in global markets. The results in this book, from a European Commission (EC) financed project by INSIGHT_E, provide an overview of the most recent analyses, focusing on energy markets and their implications for society. Designed to inform European policymaking, elements of this book will be integrated into upcoming EC policies, giving readers invaluable insights into the cost and availability of energy, the effect of price increases affecting vulnerable consumer groups, and current topics of interest to the EC and ongoing energy debate.INSIGHT_E provides decision-makers with unbiased policy advice and insights on the latest developments, including an assessment of their potential impact. Presents answers to strategic questions posed by the European Commission Coherently assesses the energy transition, from policies to energy supply, markets, system requirements, and consumer needs Informed the EC "Clean Energy for All Europeans" package from end of 2016, e.g., regarding aspects of energy poverty Endorsed by thought leaders from within and outside of Europe, including utilities, energy agencies, research institutes, journal editors, think tanks, and the European Commission




Handbook on Energy and Economic Growth


Book Description

This comprehensive Handbook examines the links between energy, the economy, and the environment. Esteemed international experts explore the ways in which energy contributes to economic growth, particularly in the context of geopolitical and climate uncertainties. Highlighting the importance of balancing environmental needs with economic development, the authors in this Handbook underline the socio-economic impact of environmental policies and regulations. They explore recent trends in energy efficiency and 'renewable' and 'green' energy sources, as well as developments in climate finance and corporate social responsibility and their impacts on the energy-growth nexus in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, health and tourism. Chapters include empirical assessments of the energy-economic growth nexus, analyses of the energy transition and associated challenges, advanced developments in energy-growth models and their practical applications. Focus is placed on multiple phenomena impacting energy supply and demand, including increasing climate concerns, ongoing international geopolitical tensions, energy physical realities, and the Covid-19 health crisis. Providing a range of cross-disciplinary perspectives as well as avenues for future research, this timely Handbook is a valuable resource for graduate students and academics in development and energy economics, business and environment science studies. It is also beneficial to analysts, policymakers and professionals working in the fields of energy and the environment.




The Geopolitics of Energy


Book Description

For a variety of reasons -- population growth, development, economics, investment and infrastructure needs, geopolitics, policy/governance, and the expected impacts of climate change, to name but a few -- the current global energy system is unsustainable in its present form. But in the absence of replacement technologies and clean energy forms that are both scalable and affordable, conventional sources of energy and related infrastructure need to remain robust for decades to come, even as policymakers undertake efforts to transform the energy system. This book identifies and examines the relevant drivers that are likely to dictate future trends in energy consumption and fuel choices in the context of a shifting geopolitical landscape, taking into account the attendant economic, foreign policy, energy security, and environmental consequences and priorities. Projecting out to 2035, the report looks at petroleum, coal, renewables, nuclear energy, and natural gas, plus what the authors term the "game changer"--Climate change. The authors believe that managing the transition to a new energy future will be one of the greatest challenges that the global community will face in the coming decades. Contrary to fashionable political rhetoric, such a transformation is likely to be irregular, costly, and at times painful, but inevitably it will and must be done.