Book Description

"In August 2008, long-standing Russia-Georgia tensions erupted into armed hostility and disproportionate counter aggression in large part due to a failure of United States' escalation management strategy in the region. The U.S. failed to effectively manage the crisis is several ways. It inadvertently escalated the crisis by not anticipating Russian reactions to Kosovo independence and NATO enlargement with respect to Russia's desire to maintain its sphere of influence. Furthermore, the U.S. failed to deter Russian escalation and military buildup immediately preceding the war by sending diplomatic signals with no reinforcing military posture. Finally, the U.S. failed to deter Georgia (its ally in the conflict) from being baited into initiating military action. This paper provides a short overview of the run up to the conflict and briefly explains key ideas and terms in the escalation management model as described by Morgan et al in Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century. Subsequently, the paper analyzes facts and U.S. decision making during the crisis using the escalation management model. For each tenant of the model applied to key events leading up to and during the fighting, the paper highlights strategic missteps, their consequences and potential alternative courses of action. Because it enjoys the clarity of hindsight, the purpose of the paper is not to assign blame. Rather, the goal is to highlight how escalation management model can be used to better control similar situations in the future."--Abstract.