Inflation, Exchange Rates and Stabilization


Book Description

The essay is an extended version of the Frank D. Graham Lecture presented at Princeton University in May 1985. It discusses the interaction of inflation and exchange rate policy in a variety of contexts. Four different settings are used to highlight that role: the experiments with exchange rate overvaluation in the Southern Cone; the place of exchange depreciation in the transition from high to even higher inflation discussed in the context of Brazil; exchange rate fixing and real appreciation during stabilization in the 1920s; and finally the U.S. real appreciation of 1980-85. The common thread of the argument is that exchange rate policy can make an important contribution to stabilization, but that it can also be lead to persistent deviations from PPP, with devastatingly adverse effects.The essay investigates through what channels these PPP deviatiins arise and how they influence inflation, trade and capital flight.




Monetary Stability Through International Cooperation


Book Description

Monetary Stability through International Cooperation contains essays written by high ranking policy makers in the field of central banking and international finance, written in honour of André Szász, who has been Executive Director of De Nederlandsche Bank since 1973, responsible for international monetary relations. Colleagues from several other central banks, from finance ministries and from international institutions pay tribute to him by analysing the conditions fostering European as well as global monetary stability. The book provides an inside view of the thinking of monetary officials at the turn of 1993/1994, when the currency turmoil in the ERM of mid-1993 had subsided and views on its implications for exchange rate management and, more generally, for European integration were taking shape. Topics include exchange rate stabilisation, policy coordination and central bank independence. A second section, on the international monetary system, includes essays on the policy implications of present day dynamic financial markets as well as the role of the IMF. This book, written by `insiders for an insider', provides valuable insights to those who are interested in contemporary international monetary relations.










Essays on Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Price Convergence


Book Description

In the first chapter, entitled “On Cross-country Differences in the Contribution of Nontraded Goods to Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations”, the contribution of nontraded goods to Real Exchange Rate (RER) fluctuations for a large number of countries that include high, middle, and low-income countries are estimated using Engel’s (1999, JPE ) approaches. We also propose a new quantity dual approach which does not require any assumption regarding the functional form for either the production function or for the overall price index to estimate similar measures. All the three approaches used yield qualitatively similar estimates, but there exists a large cross-country variation in the contributions of the nontraded goods to RER fluctuations. Income, government expenditure, exchange rate volatility, and political stability are found to be negatively correlated to the contributions of nontraded goods, while inflation, consumption expenditure, and openness are positively correlated to the contributions of nontraded goods to RER fluctuations. In the second chapter, entitled “The Great Recession and Price Convergence in the United States”, We analyze the differential nature of commodity price convergence in cities in the U.S.A. before and after the Great Recession of 2008. Using quarterly retail price data for 50 commodities from 279 cities for the period 1992–2014, we show that the speed of price convergence for almost all the commodities increased after the great recession, and that observation is more pronounced for nonperishable prices. We also observe that the price convergence disparity between the most and the least affected states widened, with the most affected areas experiencing much higher speed of price convergence than before the Great Recession. Moreover, the geographic variations of changes in rate of convergence are noteworthy. In the third chapter, entitled “Language, Topography, and Price Convergence”, we ask what else can downgrade technological innovations, improvement of transportation infrastructures, and other policy tools in boosting integrations of commodity markets? This paper analyzes the impact of two highly exogenous variables—languages and elevations—on retail price convergence which indicates the level of market integration. Using data from a very ethnic and topographically diversified country—India—we show that language and topographical variations represent intrinsic barriers to market integration and should not be overlooked. Therefore, ceteris paribus, a country with more similarities in languages and less variation in topographical features is likely to benefit more from technological improvements and from the improvement of transportation infrastructures due to the resulting faster rate of convergence.




Essays on Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics


Book Description

"This thesis explores the relationship between the exchange rate and the domestic price level in three essays. The first essay (Chapter 2) examines the causality between the exchange rate and consumer prices, and estimates the extent of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices for 12 OECD countries for the period 1974 to 2016. Using the adoption of the Euro and the adoption of the policy of targeting inflation in these countries, which represent changes in the monetary policy regime, I divide this time period into two groups and examine causality and pass-through behaviour separately for each country. Based on a newly developed causality measure for multiple horizons, I found that the direction of causality from consumer prices to exchange rate becomes stronger for the countries with the Euro while the direction of causality from the exchange rate to consumer prices becomes stronger for the inflation targeting countries after their respective regime change. By deriving the impulse response functions from a recursive vector autoregressive model, I found that the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is not statistically different from zero for the countries with the Euro while the pass-through is statistically significant in four out of the six remaining countries. Before the regime change, the evidence on both fronts was somewhat mixed among these two sets of countries. The second essay (Chapter 3) examines whether the aggregate price level responds asymmetrically to exchange rate appreciations and depreciations in 12 Asian countries for the period 1994 to 2016. Using a recently developed response-based test, I found evidence of asymmetric responses of the consumer price index to exchange rate appreciations and depreciations in 6 out of the 12 countries. The slope-based test also provides evidence of asymmetry for 6 countries, but the results are the same as the response-based tests only for 4 countries. Further, depreciations are not necessarily passed-through to prices more than the appreciations. The third essay (chapter 4) examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for our selected 12 Asian countries for the period 1974 to 2016. Since stationarity of the real exchange rate implies that PPP holds, I employ unit root tests on the real exchange rate in the presence of multiple structural breaks. Our findings support the PPP hypothesis for six countries. Further, there is no additional evidence of trend stationarity of the series in these countries, so that there is no support for the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. " --







Exchange Rates and Inflation


Book Description

Collected for the first time in Exchange Rates and Inflation, twenty-two articles are gathered in four parts covering exchange rate theory, special topics in exchange rate economics, equilibrium real exchange rates, and inflation and stabilization.