Essays on Financial Frictions and Business Cycles


Book Description

In this dissertation I explore the relationship between the frictions in a country's financial market and its business cycle movements. It is well known that the financial market is far from perfect, and shocks originating in such market could have sizable impact on the real economy. On the other hand, evolvement in the financial market could also be a reflection of the real economy. For example, economic downturn often leads to high borrowing cost for a country in the international financial market. The essays in this dissertation present an analysis of this two-way relationship, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The first essay studies the link between country credit spreads - defined as the difference between a home country's cost of borrowing from the international credit market and the world riskless interest rate - and the domestic business cycle fluctuations. By combining both empirical and theoretical analysis, this essay shows that deteriorating credit markets are both reflections of a declining economy and a major factor that depresses economic activity. This study uses a quarterly dataset over the period 1972Q1 to 2010Q1 for South Korea. The second essay probes the importance of financial shocks in creating business cycles in the United States. It starts from a theoretical dynamic stochastic generating equilibrium model, which identifies positive financial shocks as those that drag down the corporate net worth while raising domestic output. An empirical analysis later uses this property to identify financial shocks and study their importance in creating business cycle movement for the U.S. in the past fifty years. This property is in stark contrast to technological shocks, which raise both corporate net worth and total output.







Essays on Financial Markets with Liquidity Frictions


Book Description

The third chapter, joint work with Markus Brunnermeier, examines predatory short selling of equity in financial institutions. We show that when the stock of a leverage-constrained financial institution is shorted aggressively, this can trigger liquidations of long-term investments at fire-sale prices. Predatory short selling can emerge in equilibrium when a financial institution is (i) close to its leverage constraint (the vulnerability region) or (ii) violates its leverage constraint even in the absence of short selling (the constrained region). The model provides a potential justification for temporary restrictions on short selling for vulnerable institutions.







Essays on Market Frictions, Economic Shocks and Business Fluctuations


Book Description

Abstract: In the first essay, 'Financial Frictions, Intersectoral Adjustment Costs, and News-Driven Business Cycles', I show that an RBC model with financial frictions and intersectoral adjustment costs can generate sizable boom-bust cycles and plausible responses of stock prices in response to a news shock. Booms in the labor market, which make it possible for both consumption and investment to increase in response to positive news, are caused through two channels: the increases in value of marginal product of labor and the increases in value of collateral. Both of these channels enable firms to hire more workers. Intersectoral adjustment costs contribute to both channels by increasing the relative price of output and capital during expansions. Financial frictions enter in the forms of collateral constraints on firms, which influence the latter channel, and the financial accelerator mechanism driven by agency costs, which amplifies all the key variables. My model differs from previous studies in its ability to generate boom-bust cycles without restricting the functional form of consumption in household preferences and without requiring investment adjustment costs, variable capital utilization, or any nominal rigidities. In the second essay, 'Financial and Real Frictions as Sources of Business Fluctuations', I show that a negative shock to a financial or real friction in an economy can generate quantitatively significant and persistent recessions, even without a decrease in exogenous aggregate total factor productivity in a heterogeneous agents DSGE model. The increase in uncertainty that a firm is facing when it makes capital adjustment, however, is found to have a limited or dubious influence on economic activities. The roles of collateral constaints as a financial friction and nonconvex capital adjustment costs as a real friction in aggregate fluctuations are examined in this propagation mechanism. When these frictions become strengthened, the degree of capital misallocation is intensified, which leads to a drop of endogenous aggregate total factor productivity. As agents expect that the return to investment and endogenous TFP decrease, they reduce aggregate investment sharply, which also leads to a drop in employment. Interruption of efficient resource allocation coming from these two frictions is found out to be enough to generate a large and persistent aggregate flucutations even without introducing heterogeneity in firm-level productivity.




Essays on Information, Liquidity and Financial Frictions


Book Description

This dissertation seeks to understand how financial frictions arise and how they can affect the economy, and explores the implications of financial frictions for monetary policy during crises. Specifically, Chapter 2 and 3 study the endogenous nature of information asymmetry and explore its implications for financial markets and the macro economy. Chapter 4 studies the potential side effects of large scale asset purchase by central banks. In Chapter 2, I study a dynamic economy in which the information on asset quality is asymmetric and the degree of information asymmetry endogenously varies with the macro-economy, which amplifies the effects of shocks. In the model, firms hold assets of heterogeneous quality and borrow for operating expenses. Production is subject to idiosyncratic shocks, which may force the firms to liquidate their assets to pay off debts. Firms are initially uninformed of the qualities of their assets, but they can acquire private information on their own assets at a cost. Private information is individually beneficial, but it creates a lemons problem that lowers market liquidity and distorts economic decisions. Adverse shocks trigger private information acquisition, which exacerbates the lemons problem. As results, market liquidity drops and economic activity declines. The model can generate larger fluctuations in financial and macroeconomic variables than an otherwise the same model with the level of information asymmetry being fixed. In Chapter 3, I provide a possible explanation for the countercyclical movements in the measures of asset return volatility. In the model, external financing is costly due to the information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders. When the borrowers' financial conditions are worsened, the costs of external financing rise. Borrowers respond by increasing their transparency to outside investors to mitigate information asymmetry, which helps reduce the external financing cost. As a result, returns on external financing instruments disperse and fluctuate more as more information is disclosed, leading to increases in the cross sectional dispersion and the time series volatility of returns. This model can generate countercyclical dispersion, volatility in returns and external finance premium, with correlation coefficients between pairs of these measures quantitatively in line with the data. In Chapter 4, I explore the potential side effects of central bank asset purchase. In the model, commercial banks and shadow banks hold liquid assets as part of their operations. Asset purchases by the central bank decreases the supply of liquid assets that shadow banks can directly hold. When commercial banks do not face binding leverage constraints, shadow banks respond by increasing their deposits in or credit lines from commercial banks and central bank asset purchases are neutral. In the presence of a binding leverage constraint, however, asset purchases create distortions that decrease shadow banks' liquidity holdings and their lending. While conventional wisdom says that central bank asset purchases should be expansionary, I show that central bank asset purchases are necessarily contractionary when the level of bank reserves is high.