Exchange Rates and Wages in an Integrated World


Book Description

We analyze how the pass-through from exchange rate to domestic wages depends on the degree of integration between domestic and foreign labor markets. Using data from 66 countries over the period 1981–2005, we find that the elasticity of domestic wages to real exchange rate is 0.1 after a year for countries with high barriers to external labor mobility, but about 0.4 in countries with low barriers to mobility. The results are robust to the inclusion of various controls, different measures of exchange rates, and concepts of labor market integration. These findings call for including labor mobility in macro models of external adjustment.




Exchange Rate, Money, and Wages


Book Description

This paper is the first attempt to look at inflation dynamics and monetary transmission mechanisms in Armenia in the context of a full information model containing three interrelated markets: foreign exchange, money, and labor. Using the vector error correction model (VECM) approach, we find that the exchange rate pass-through to prices is very strong relative to credit, wage, and interest rate channels. The analysis suggests a relatively fast adjustment of prices to long-run disequilibria in the exchange rate market, albeit with initial overshooting of the price level. In addition, we find no evidence of prices responding to changes in money and wages in a statistically significant manner.




Exchange Rate, Money, and Wages


Book Description

This paper is the first attempt to look at inflation dynamics and monetary transmission mechanisms in Armenia in the context of a full information model containing three interrelated markets: foreign exchange, money, and labor. Using the vector error correction model (VECM) approach, we find that the exchange rate pass-through to prices is very strong relative to credit, wage, and interest rate channels. The analysis suggests a relatively fast adjustment of prices to long-run disequilibria in the exchange rate market, albeit with initial overshooting of the price level. In addition, we find no evidence of prices responding to changes in money and wages in a statistically significant manner.




The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities


Book Description

This paper studies dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G-7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era. The model predicts that a positive domestic money supply shock lowers the domestic nominal interest rate, that it raises output and that it leads to a nominal and real depreciation of the country’s currency. Increases in domestic labor productivity and in the world interest rate too are predicted to induce a nominal and real exchange rate depreciation.




Exchange Rates and Wages


Book Description

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations across the population is an important issue for increasingly globalized economies. Previous studies using industry aggregate data have found differences across industries in the labor market implications of exchange rates, reporting that industry wages are significantly more responsive than industry employment. We offer an explanation for this paradoxical finding. Using Current Population Survey data for 1976 through 1998, we document that the main mechanism for exchange rate effects on wages occurs through job turnover and the strong consequences this has for the wages of workers undergoing such job transitions. By contrast, workers who remain with the same employer experience little if any wage impacts from exchange rate shocks. In addition, we find that the least educated workers who also have the most frequent job changes shoulder the largest adjustments to exchange rates.




The Macroeconomic Consequences of Wage Indexation Revisited


Book Description

Since the mid-1970s, there has been considerable research on the macroeconomic consequences of wage indexation. Nonetheless, until recently, this research had not explicitly explored the implications of contracts that index wages to lagged inflation, the usual type of wage indexation observed in practice. Drawing mainly on recent research by the author, this paper examines the consequences of wage indexation to lagged inflation on aggregate wage formation, the cost of disinflation under money- and exchange-rate-based stabilization, the variability of output under alternative shocks and policy regimes, the choice of exchange rate regime, and the level and variability of inflation.




Exchange Rate Regimes and Location


Book Description

This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rates on firms’ location choices and on countries’ specialization patterns. In a two-country, two-differentiated-goods monetary model, demand, supply, and monetary (as well as exchange rate) shocks arise after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The paper finds that countries are more specialized under flexible than fixed rates, and that the pattern of specialization is not uniquely defined by trade models but depends also on the exchange rate regime. The adoption of fixed exchange rates endogenously increases the desirability of this currency area by reducing the shock asymmetry. These results also shed light on the effects of exchange rate variability on trade.




Wages and Exchange Rates


Book Description




Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System


Book Description

This account of exchange rates in the international monetary system considers the issues in international macroeconomics. Using theoretical models of international economics it explains the effects of various policies and issues in macroeconomics.




Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries


Book Description

In spite of the attention paid exchange rates in recent economic debates on developing countries, relatively few studies have systematically analyzed in detail the various ramifications of exchange rate policy in these countries. In this new volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research, leading economists use rigorous models to tackle various exchange rate issues, while also illuminating policy implications that emerge from their analyses. The volume, divided into four main sections, addresses: the role of exchange rates in stabilization programs and the adjustment process; the importance of exchange rate policy during liberalization reform in developing countries; exchange rate problems relevant and unique to developing countries, illustrated by case studies; and the problems defining, measuring, and identifying determinants of real exchange rates. Authors of individual papers examine the relation between commercial policies and exchange rates, the role of exchange rate policy in stabilization programs, the effectiveness of devaluations as a policy tool, and the interaction between exchange rate terms of trade an capital flow. This research will not only prove crucial to our understanding of the role of exchange rates in developing countries, but will clearly set the standard for future work in the field.