Flowgraph Models for Multistate Time-to-Event Data


Book Description

A unique introduction to the innovative methodology of statisticalflowgraphs This book offers a practical, application-based approach toflowgraph models for time-to-event data. It clearly shows how thisinnovative new methodology can be used to analyze data fromsemi-Markov processes without prior knowledge of stochasticprocesses--opening the door to interesting applications in survivalanalysis and reliability as well as stochastic processes. Unlike other books on multistate time-to-event data, this workemphasizes reliability and not just biostatistics, illustratingeach method with medical and engineering examples. It demonstrateshow flowgraphs bring together applied probability techniques andcombine them with data analysis and statistical methods to answerquestions of practical interest. Bayesian methods of data analysisare emphasized. Coverage includes: * Clear instructions on how to model multistate time-to-event datausing flowgraph models * An emphasis on computation, real data, and Bayesian methods forproblem solving * Real-world examples for analyzing data from stochasticprocesses * The use of flowgraph models to analyze complex stochasticnetworks * Exercise sets to reinforce the practical approach of thisvolume Flowgraph Models for Multistate Time-to-Event Data is an invaluableresource/reference for researchers in biostatistics/survivalanalysis, systems engineering, and in fields that use stochasticprocesses, including anthropology, biology, psychology, computerscience, and engineering.




Flowgraph Models for Complex Multistate System Reliabiliy


Book Description

This chapter reviews flowgraph models for complex multistate systems. The focus is on modeling data from semi-Markov processes and constructing likelihoods when different portions of the system data are censored and incomplete. Semi-Markov models play an important role in the analysis of time to event data. However, in practice, data analysis for semi-Markov processes can be quite difficult and many simplifying assumptions are made. Flowgraph models are multistate models that provide a data analytic method for semi-Markov processes. Flowgraphs are useful for estimating Bayes predictive densities, predictive reliability functions, and predictive hazard functions for waiting times of interest in the presence of censored and incomplete data. This chapter reviews data analysis for flowgraph models and then presents methods for constructing likelihoods when portions of the system data are missing.







The Methodology of Flowgraph Models


Book Description

Flowgraph models are directed graph models for describing the dynamic changes in a stochastic process. They are one class of multistate models that are applied to analyse time-to-event data. The main motivation of the flowgraph models is to determine the distribution of the total waiting times until an event of interest occurs in a stochastic process that progresses through various states. This thesis applies the methodology of flowgraph models to the study of Markov and SemiMarkov processes. The underlying approach of the thesis is that the access to the moment generating function (MGF) and cumulant generating function (CGF), provided by Mason's rule enables us to use the Method of Moments (MM) which depends on moments and cumulant. We give a new derivation of the Mason's rule to compute the total waiting MGF based on the internode transition matrix of a flowgraph. Next, we demonstrate methods to determine and approximate the distribution of total waiting time based on the inversion of the MGF, including an alternative approach using the Pad ́e approximation of the MGF, which always yields a closed form density. For parameter estimation, we extend the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate parameters in the mixture of negative weight exponential density. Our second contribution is to develop a bias correction method in the Method of Moments (BCMM). By investigating methods for tail area approximation, we propose a new way to estimate the total waiting time density function and survival.




Modern Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Reliability


Book Description

This volume contains extended versions of 28 carefully selected and reviewed papers presented at The Fourth International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability in Santa Fe, New Mexico, June 21-25, 2004, the leading conference in reliability research. A broad overview of current research activities in reliability theory and its applications is provided with coverage on reliability modeling, network and system reliability, Bayesian methods, survival analysis, degradation and maintenance modeling, and software reliability. The contributors are all leading experts in the field and include the plenary session speakers, Tim Bedford, Thierry Duchesne, Henry Wynn, Vicki Bier, Edsel Pena, Michael Hamada, and Todd Graves.




High-Dimensional Covariance Estimation


Book Description

Methods for estimating sparse and large covariance matrices Covariance and correlation matrices play fundamental roles in every aspect of the analysis of multivariate data collected from a variety of fields including business and economics, health care, engineering, and environmental and physical sciences. High-Dimensional Covariance Estimation provides accessible and comprehensive coverage of the classical and modern approaches for estimating covariance matrices as well as their applications to the rapidly developing areas lying at the intersection of statistics and machine learning. Recently, the classical sample covariance methodologies have been modified and improved upon to meet the needs of statisticians and researchers dealing with large correlated datasets. High-Dimensional Covariance Estimation focuses on the methodologies based on shrinkage, thresholding, and penalized likelihood with applications to Gaussian graphical models, prediction, and mean-variance portfolio management. The book relies heavily on regression-based ideas and interpretations to connect and unify many existing methods and algorithms for the task. High-Dimensional Covariance Estimation features chapters on: Data, Sparsity, and Regularization Regularizing the Eigenstructure Banding, Tapering, and Thresholding Covariance Matrices Sparse Gaussian Graphical Models Multivariate Regression The book is an ideal resource for researchers in statistics, mathematics, business and economics, computer sciences, and engineering, as well as a useful text or supplement for graduate-level courses in multivariate analysis, covariance estimation, statistical learning, and high-dimensional data analysis.




Applied Logistic Regression


Book Description

A new edition of the definitive guide to logistic regression modeling for health science and other applications This thoroughly expanded Third Edition provides an easily accessible introduction to the logistic regression (LR) model and highlights the power of this model by examining the relationship between a dichotomous outcome and a set of covariables. Applied Logistic Regression, Third Edition emphasizes applications in the health sciences and handpicks topics that best suit the use of modern statistical software. The book provides readers with state-of-the-art techniques for building, interpreting, and assessing the performance of LR models. New and updated features include: A chapter on the analysis of correlated outcome data A wealth of additional material for topics ranging from Bayesian methods to assessing model fit Rich data sets from real-world studies that demonstrate each method under discussion Detailed examples and interpretation of the presented results as well as exercises throughout Applied Logistic Regression, Third Edition is a must-have guide for professionals and researchers who need to model nominal or ordinal scaled outcome variables in public health, medicine, and the social sciences as well as a wide range of other fields and disciplines.




Bayesian Thinking, Modeling and Computation


Book Description

This volume describes how to develop Bayesian thinking, modelling and computation both from philosophical, methodological and application point of view. It further describes parametric and nonparametric Bayesian methods for modelling and how to use modern computational methods to summarize inferences using simulation. The book covers wide range of topics including objective and subjective Bayesian inferences with a variety of applications in modelling categorical, survival, spatial, spatiotemporal, Epidemiological, software reliability, small area and micro array data. The book concludes with a chapter on how to teach Bayesian thoughts to nonstatisticians. Critical thinking on causal effects Objective Bayesian philosophy Nonparametric Bayesian methodology Simulation based computing techniques Bioinformatics and Biostatistics




Matrix Analysis for Statistics


Book Description

An up-to-date version of the complete, self-contained introduction to matrix analysis theory and practice Providing accessible and in-depth coverage of the most common matrix methods now used in statistical applications, Matrix Analysis for Statistics, Third Edition features an easy-to-follow theorem/proof format. Featuring smooth transitions between topical coverage, the author carefully justifies the step-by-step process of the most common matrix methods now used in statistical applications, including eigenvalues and eigenvectors; the Moore-Penrose inverse; matrix differentiation; and the distribution of quadratic forms. An ideal introduction to matrix analysis theory and practice, Matrix Analysis for Statistics, Third Edition features: • New chapter or section coverage on inequalities, oblique projections, and antieigenvalues and antieigenvectors • Additional problems and chapter-end practice exercises at the end of each chapter • Extensive examples that are familiar and easy to understand • Self-contained chapters for flexibility in topic choice • Applications of matrix methods in least squares regression and the analyses of mean vectors and covariance matrices Matrix Analysis for Statistics, Third Edition is an ideal textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses on matrix methods, multivariate analysis, and linear models. The book is also an excellent reference for research professionals in applied statistics. James R. Schott, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Statistics at the University of Central Florida. He has published numerous journal articles in the area of multivariate analysis. Dr. Schott’s research interests include multivariate analysis, analysis of covariance and correlation matrices, and dimensionality reduction techniques.




Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization


Book Description

A comprehensive account of the theory and application of Monte Carlo methods Based on years of research in efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimation of rare-event probabilities, counting problems, and combinatorial optimization, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is a complete illustration of fast sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The book provides an accessible overview of current work in the field of Monte Carlo methods, specifically sequential Monte Carlo techniques, for solving abstract counting and optimization problems. Written by authorities in the field, the book places emphasis on cross-entropy, minimum cross-entropy, splitting, and stochastic enumeration. Focusing on the concepts and application of Monte Carlo techniques, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization includes: Detailed algorithms needed to practice solving real-world problems Numerous examples with Monte Carlo method produced solutions within the 1-2% limit of relative error A new generic sequential importance sampling algorithm alongside extensive numerical results An appendix focused on review material to provide additional background information Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is an excellent resource for engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians, and readers interested in efficient simulation techniques. The book is also useful for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses on Monte Carlo methods.