Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View


Book Description

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.




Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View


Book Description

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.




The Future of Migration to Europe


Book Description

Even as the 2013-2017 "migration crisis" is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror. This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?




Developments in Demographic Forecasting


Book Description

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.







Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography


Book Description

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.




Regression Modelling wih Spatial and Spatial-Temporal Data


Book Description

Modelling Spatial and Spatial-Temporal Data: A Bayesian Approach is aimed at statisticians and quantitative social, economic and public health students and researchers who work with spatial and spatial-temporal data. It assumes a grounding in statistical theory up to the standard linear regression model. The book compares both hierarchical and spatial econometric modelling, providing both a reference and a teaching text with exercises in each chapter. The book provides a fully Bayesian, self-contained, treatment of the underlying statistical theory, with chapters dedicated to substantive applications. The book includes WinBUGS code and R code and all datasets are available online. Part I covers fundamental issues arising when modelling spatial and spatial-temporal data. Part II focuses on modelling cross-sectional spatial data and begins by describing exploratory methods that help guide the modelling process. There are then two theoretical chapters on Bayesian models and a chapter of applications. Two chapters follow on spatial econometric modelling, one describing different models, the other substantive applications. Part III discusses modelling spatial-temporal data, first introducing models for time series data. Exploratory methods for detecting different types of space-time interaction are presented followed by two chapters on the theory of space-time separable (without space-time interaction) and inseparable (with space-time interaction) models. An applications chapter includes: the evaluation of a policy intervention; analysing the temporal dynamics of crime hotspots; chronic disease surveillance; and testing for evidence of spatial spillovers in the spread of an infectious disease. A final chapter suggests some future directions and challenges.




Humanitarian Crises and Migration


Book Description

Whether it is the stranding of tens of thousands of migrant workers at the Libyan–Tunisian border, or the large-scale displacement triggered by floods in Pakistan and Colombia, hardly a week goes by in which humanitarian crises have not precipitated human movement. While some people move internally, others internationally, some temporarily and others permanently, there are also those who become "trapped" in place, unable to move to greater safety. Responses to these "crisis migrations" are varied and inadequate. Only a fraction of "crisis migrants" are protected by existing international, regional or national law. Even where law exists, practice does not necessarily guarantee safety and security for those who are forced to move or remain trapped. Improvements are desperately needed to ensure more consistent and effective responses. This timely book brings together leading experts from multi-disciplinary backgrounds to reflect on diverse humanitarian crises and to shed light on a series of exploratory questions: In what ways do people move in the face of crisis situations? Why do some people move, while others do not? Where do people move? When do people move, and for how long? What are the challenges and opportunities in providing protection to crisis migrants? How might we formulate appropriate responses and sustainable solutions, and upon what factors should these depend? This volume is divided into four parts, with an introductory section outlining the parameters of "crisis migration," conceptualizing the term and evaluating its utility. This section also explores the legal, policy and institutional architecture upon which current responses are based. Part II presents a diverse set of case studies, from the earthquake in Haiti and the widespread violence in Mexico, to the ongoing exodus from Somalia, and environmental degradation in Alaska and the Carteret Islands, among others. Part III focuses on populations that may be at particular risk, including non-citizens, migrants at sea, those displaced to urban areas, and trapped populations. The concluding section maps the global governance of crisis migration and highlights gaps in current provisions for crisis-related movement across multiple levels. This valuable book brings together previously diffuse research and policy issues under the analytical umbrella of "crisis migration." It lays the foundations for assessing and addressing real challenges to the status quo, and will be of interest to scholars, policy makers, and practitioners committed to seeking out improved responses and ensuring the dignity and safety of millions who move in the context of humanitarian crises.




New Directions in the Sociology of Aging


Book Description

The aging of the population of the United States is occurring at a time of major economic and social changes. These economic changes include consideration of increases in the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare and possible changes in benefit levels. Furthermore, changes in the social context in which older individuals and families function may well affect the nature of key social relationships and institutions that define the environment for older persons. Sociology offers a knowledge base, a number of useful analytic approaches and tools, and unique theoretical perspectives that can facilitate understanding of these demographic, economic, and social changes and, to the extent possible, their causes, consequences and implications. New Directions in the Sociology of Aging evaluates the recent contributions of social demography, social epidemiology and sociology to the study of aging and identifies promising new research directions in these sub-fields. Included in this study are nine papers prepared by experts in sociology, demography, social genomics, public health, and other fields, that highlight the broad array of tools and perspectives that can provide the basis for further advancing the understanding of aging processes in ways that can inform policy. This report discusses the role of sociology in what is a wide-ranging and diverse field of study; a proposed three-dimensional conceptual model for studying social processes in aging over the life cycle; a review of existing databases, data needs and opportunities, primarily in the area of measurement of interhousehold and intergenerational transmission of resources, biomarkers and biosocial interactions; and a summary of roadblocks and bridges to transdisciplinary research that will affect the future directions of the field of sociology of aging.




Perspectives on the Future of the Sociology of Aging


Book Description

The population of the United States is growing inexorably older. With birth rates historically low and life expectancy continuing to rise, the age distribution of the population in the United States is growing steadily older. This demographic shift is occurring at a time of major economic and social changes, which have important implications for the growing elderly population. Other changes, such as the move away from defined-benefit toward defined-contribution retirement plans, changes in some corporate and municipal pension plans as a result of market pressures, and the 2008 financial crisis precipitated by the crash of the housing market, all have economic implications for older people. They are also likely to make it more difficult for certain groups of future retirees to find their retirements at the level that they had planned and would like. To deal effectively with the challenges created by population aging, it is vital to first understand these demographic, economic, and social changes and, to the extent possible, their causes, consequences, and implications. Sociology offers a knowledge base, a number of useful analytic approaches and tools, and unique theoretical perspectives that can be important aids to this task. The Panel on New Directions in Social Demography, Social Epidemiology, and the Sociology of Aging was established in August 2010 under the auspices of the Committee on Population of the National Research Council to prepare a report that evaluates the recent contributions of social demography, social epidemiology, and sociology to the study of aging and seeks to identify promising new research in these fields. Perspectives on the Future of the Sociology of Aging provides candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the final published volume as sound as possible and to ensure that the volume meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge.