The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos


Book Description

Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.




Stock Market Volatility and Monetary Policy


Book Description

This thesis comprises three essays. The first essay examines the effect of federal funds rate surprises on implied stock market volatility using U.S. data. While volatility is measured using two popular implied volatility indices (VIX and VXO indexes), different techniques are employed to measure federal funds rate surprises from federal funds futures data at the daily and monthly frequencies. We find that the surprises significantly increase volatility, even when timing uncertainty is accounted for. Consistent with the efficient markets hypothesis, we find that the expected component of a target rate change; as well as the target rate change itself, do not significantly affect volatility. Nonlinearities and asymmetries are explored in the response of volatility to the direction of the rate change and the sign of the surprise. The evidence of asymmetries and nonlinearities is found to be weak. The second essay investigates the dynamic response of U.S. stock market variables to monetary policy shocks and the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the stock market using vector autoregressive models. We find that volatility is increased and excess returns are decreased contemporaneously due to a monetary policy shock but that the persistence of the effect depends on the model used. A daily analysis using conditional heteroskedasticity models confirms the results found with vector autoregressive models. The third essay uses Canadian data to examine risk premiums and predictability in futures contracts (BAX futures) on short-term Canadian interest rates (Bankers' Acceptances). While evidence for a constant risk premium is found, the predictive regressions employed only uncover weak signs of predictability (and time-varying risk premiums) in returns on BAX futures. This result is confirmed by forecast efficiency regressions. Lastly, out-of-sample forecasting of Bankers' Acceptances returns is undertaken. Forecasting results reveal the superior predictive ability of the model exploiting the restrictions of economic theory in comparison to random walk, autoregressive and error correction models.




Market Volatility and Investor Confidence


Book Description










The Effect of Futures Trading on Cash Market Volatility


Book Description

The stock market crash of October 1987 and the growing importance of index arbitrage and portfolio insurance helped to focus the attention of academics, practitioners and regulators on the possibly destabilising role of equity index futures on the underlying cash market. Although theoretical evidence on this question is somewhat ambiguous, empirical evidence, relating particularly to US markets, has been less equivocal: typically, no significant effect of futures trading has been found. This paper presents an analysis of daily stock price volatility on the London Stock Exchange for the period 1980-93. The measure of volatility produced is appropriate, given the distribution of returns and the time-varying nature of stock price volatility, and changes in monetary policy regime. The impact of futures on stock price volatility is measured within an augmented ARCH framework and the principal result is striking: rather than increasing volatility, index futures contracts are found to have reduced volatility significantly by around 17%.




The New Commodity Trading Guide


Book Description

“I’ve been trading stocks and commodities for more than 30 years, and I’ve read any number of how-to books, but George Kleinman’s The New Commodity Trading Guide is as clear, precise, and useful as any book I’ve come across during my career. I cannot recommend it strongly enough, if for no other reason than George finally explains ‘The Voice from the Tomb’ better than any of the old guard at the CBOT. Read it and reap.”--Dennis Gartman, editor/publisher The Gartman Letter, L.C. “Commodities present great financial opportunity and, as every hedge fund and trader has experienced, great risk. This book shows how to use commodity trading and volatility to capture excess profits while limiting losses. These lessons are as critical for investors as they are for traders, as we are likely to be in a volatile trading environment for the foreseeable future.”--Daniel J. Dart, private investor and COO, Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, Third Party Group (retired) “George Kleinman’s book has just the right blend of practical trading wisdom, technical charting, and fundamental analysis. It’s full of revealing discussions about seasonal trading patterns and long term trends. But most importantly it presents a balanced view that honestly reveals both the difficulties and advantages of being a private commodities trader. There’s something here for both experienced investors and beginners interested in learning from a seasoned expert.”--Jeff Augen, author of The Volatility Edge in Options Trading and Trading Options at Expiration “I highly recommend George Kleinman’s The New Commodity Trading Guide. George’s insights, the result of 25 years of successful trading experience, are explained in a way that a new trader can grasp and, at the same time, an experienced trader can translate into his own trading. Best of all, George presents many of his own creative trading methods including his Natural Number Method, explained for the first time in this book.”--Jeff Quinto, president of Transformative Trading and futures trading coach “Since leaving the trading floor, George is one of the few people I still talk to about the markets, and this book clearly shows why. He is able to take classic time-tested methods of technical analysis and adapt them to the conditions faced by today’s electronic traders.”--Andrew Stanton, 20-year veteran of the NY trading floors Over the long term, commodities prices are expected to rise based on massive increases in global demand. But, as many investors have discovered the hard way, merely knowing this is not enough to make consistent profits. Fundamental changes in the commodities markets have occurred that have implications most investors do not understand. For instance, century-old “open outcry” trading floors have now been replaced with computerized trading. In The New Commodity Trading Guide, commodities expert George Kleinman reveals the new practical realities of worldwide electronic commodities trading and specific strategies for capitalizing on today’s radically different markets. Kleinman shows how to leverage the one indicator that consistently drives commodity prices today...introduces the right ways to trade on news and profit from trends...reveals consistent seasonal price shifts that mean huge profits...shows which conventional strategies still work (and which don’t!). Finally, he introduces the Natural Number Method, a breakthrough approach that any commodities trader can use to supercharge performance! Capturing the 5000% return What you can learn from one of history’s fastest price moves “Breaking par”: how you can profit from market psychology How to make profitable trades right after market barriers are shattered The trend’s your friend--if you know how to use it Discover the best times to go with the flow Why markets behave differently at significant break points... ...and how to use that knowledge to make big profits What hasn’t changed--and how you can profit from it Two classic chart patterns that continue to work!




Beast on Wall Street


Book Description

It is now abundantly clear that stock volatility is a contagious disease that spreads virulently from market to market around the world. Price changes in one market drive subsequent price changes in that market as well as in others. In Beast, Haugen makes a compelling case for the fact that even under normal conditions, fully 80 percent of stock volatility is price driven. Moreover, this volatility is far from benign. It acts to reduce the level of investment spending and constitutes a significant and permanent drag on economic growth. Price-driven volatility is unstable. Dramatic and unpredictable explosions in price-driven volatility can send stock markets in a downward spiral and cause significant disruptions in economic activity. Haugen argues that this indeed happened in 1929 and 1930. If volatility in Asian markets persists, it can easily become the source of the problem rather than merely a symptom.