Diagnostic Uncertainty and Insurance in Credence Goods Markets


Book Description

Credence goods markets - like health care or repair services - with their informational asymmetries between expert sellers and uninformed customers are prone to fraudulent behavior of sellers and resulting market inefficiencies. Only little is known so far about how diagnostic uncertainty of sellers affects market outcomes, and how one widespread feature of such markets, insurance on the customer side, interacts with the degree of diagnostic uncertainty. We present a model that analyzes the effects of both diagnostic uncertainty and insurance in a unified framework and we test the model's predictions in lab experiments. Both in theory and in the experiment diagnostic uncertainty increases the rate of incorrect service provision and leads to less trade, thus reducing efficiency. In theory, insurance also increases the provision of incorrect services, but at the same time it also increases the volume of trade leading to an ambiguous net effect on welfare. In the experiments the net effect of insurance coverage on efficiency turns out to be negative. We also find an important interaction effect: if consumers are insured, experts invest less in diagnostic precision.




Diagnostic Uncertainty and Insurance Coverage in Credence Goods Markets


Book Description

Credence goods markets - like for health care or repair services - with their informational asymmetries between sellers and customers are prone to fraudulent behavior of sellers and resulting market inefficiencies. We present the first model that considers both diagnostic uncertainty of sellers and the effects of insurance coverage of consumers in a unified framework. We test the model's predictions in a laboratory experiment. Both in theory and in the experiment diagnostic uncertainty decreases the rate of efficient service provision and leads to less trade. In theory, insurance also decreases the rate of efficient service provision, but at the same time it also increases the volume of trade, leading to an ambiguous net effect on welfare. In the experiment, the net effect of insurance coverage on efficiency turns out to be positive. We also uncover an important interaction effect: if consumers are insured, experts invest less in diagnostic precision. We discuss policy implications of our results.




Serving Consumers in an Uncertain World


Book Description

Credence goods markets are prone to fraudulent behavior and market inefficiencies due to informational asymmetries between sellers and customers. We examine experimentally the effects of diagnostic uncertainty and insurance coverage on the information acquisition and provision decisions by sellers and the trading decisions by consumers. Our results reveal that diagnostic uncertainty is a major source of inefficiency by decreasing efficient service provision. Insurance coverage has a positive net effect on market efficiency, despite making information acquisition and efficient service provision less likely. We also examine the role of -s and of sellers' prosociality in shaping service provision and information acquisition.




Misconduct in Credence Good Markets


Book Description

We study how monitoring, expert skill and consumer awareness affect the level of misconduct in markets with asymmetric information and price-taking experts. Theoretical predictions show that experts subject to more intense monitoring may be less ethical in equilibrium. Similarly, more experienced experts are predicted to exhibit greater levels of misconduct. We test these predictions in the insurance sales industry and find that monitored experts are 21 to 98% more likely to take advantage of customers, relative to unmonitored experts. We also find empirical evidence that more experienced experts are significantly more likely to mislead their customers.




Learning from Lemons


Book Description

This paper considers the potential role of government in aiding the scale-up of high quality index insurance products in developing countries. In particular, we analyse optimal public policy in light of the fact that index insurance policies are typically credence goods - that is, the basis risk of a given policy cannot be distinguished by consumers before purchase and only to a limited extent after purchase. We discuss two potential market failures that stem from this property that governments may seek to correct: low takeup and low investment in reducing basis risk. In each case, we consider the costs and benefits of various alternative government policies. We show that policies aimed to improve take-up may improve or worsen incentives for investment, and that the precise nature of these effects will depend on the government's ability to commit, the marginal cost of funds, and their potential to identify the inputs necessary for constructing a high quality index.




Insurance Intermediation


Book Description

Insurance intermediaries can help consumers to economize on information and transaction costs in insurance markets. This book analyzes conduct and performance in the market for insurance information services by applying search theoretical and industrial organization approaches. Based on a sample of 927 insurance intermediaries, coverage empirically studies the factors that affect the quality of the information services provided by them.




The Microeconomics of Insurance


Book Description

In this relatively short survey, we present the core elements of the microeconomic analysis of insurance markets at a level suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate economics students. The aim of this analysis is to understand how insurance markets work, what their fundamental economic functions are, and how efficiently they may be expected to carry these out.




Moral Hazard in Health Insurance


Book Description

Addressing the challenge of covering heath care expenses—while minimizing economic risks. Moral hazard—the tendency to change behavior when the cost of that behavior will be borne by others—is a particularly tricky question when considering health care. Kenneth J. Arrow’s seminal 1963 paper on this topic (included in this volume) was one of the first to explore the implication of moral hazard for health care, and Amy Finkelstein—recognized as one of the world’s foremost experts on the topic—here examines this issue in the context of contemporary American health care policy. Drawing on research from both the original RAND Health Insurance Experiment and her own research, including a 2008 Health Insurance Experiment in Oregon, Finkelstein presents compelling evidence that health insurance does indeed affect medical spending and encourages policy solutions that acknowledge and account for this. The volume also features commentaries and insights from other renowned economists, including an introduction by Joseph P. Newhouse that provides context for the discussion, a commentary from Jonathan Gruber that considers provider-side moral hazard, and reflections from Joseph E. Stiglitz and Kenneth J. Arrow. “Reads like a fireside chat among a group of distinguished, articulate health economists.” —Choice