Book Description

"As the mining investment boom fades, Australia risks falling into the stagnation that afflicts much of the rich world. This report examines what policymakes can do so that Australia remains a dynamic, growing economy. It focuses on private sector investment, a key to growth. Investment in Australia has been exceptionally strong. Since 2005, the capital stock per person has grown by a third. Even excluding mining, capital per person has grown by more than 15 per cent. By contrast, in both the US and Uk the capital stock per person grew by just 7 per cent. Strong investment has belped to increase output per person by 10 per cent between 2005 and 2015, compared to 6 per cent in the US and 4 per cent in the UK. But Australia is now experiencing its biggest ever five-year fall in mining investment, as a share of GDP. And non-mining business investment has fallen from 12 per cent to 9 per cent of GDP, lower than at any point in the 50 years from 1960 to 2010. It is important to keep this problem in perspective. Investment in the 2000a was buoyed by rapid growth and easy finance that masked longterm structural changes in the economy. With the shift to a services economy, and with lower capital goods prices, businesses can thrive with lower levels of investment. But about a third of the fall in nonmining investment is a result of the economy growing slowly, which discourages businesses from investing. What should the Australian govenernment do to encourage investment? There are no silver bullets - only tought choices. And we need to set realistic expectations that theses choices will only produce incremental increases in investment. The Turnbull Govenment proposes a cut in company tax. It would probably attract more foreign investment. But there are trade-offs. A cut would also reduce national income for years and would hit the budget. Committing to a tax cut before the budget is on a clear path to recovery risks reducing future living standards. Alternative company tax models like accelerated depreciatin or a cash flow tax can make investment more attractive, but would cos the budget even more in the earl years. An investment allowance would be cheaper, but may be difficult to administer. Calls for tax breaks for small business should be rejected. Other policies can encourage investment. Government deficits can expand expenditure and hence invesment. But they impose costs on futute taxpayers and can reduce flexibility in a crisis. The RBA should keep interest rates low; risjs to financial stability can be managed by tightening prudential standards. Governements, state and federal, should build more infrastructure, but only if they can build better infrstructure. And of course policy to support economic growth (by reducing tax distortions, boosting labour participation, encouraging competition, improving the efficieny of land use, and tightening regulatory frameworks) would also encourage private investment. Lower growth may well be the 'new normal', and investment is likely to remain below previous peaks. There is no reason to panic. But there is also no excuse for policy complacency. Australia should prudently encourage investment through this new reality."--Page 3.