Iran at the Crossroads


Book Description

Iran stands at a critical juncture in its history. In the era of Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Barack Obama, the Islamic Republic has a unique opportunity to regain its traditional greatness as a cradle of rich civilisation and culture, with a capacity to be a very influential and stabilising regional actor. In this incisive analysis, Amin Saikal, a leading expert on Iranian politics, traces Iran’s transition from pro-Western monarchy to Islamic Republic and explores the choices open to Rouhani’s moderate reformist government. The Islamic Republic has endured a difficult journey throughout its existence. But since Khomeini assumed power in 1979it has been characterised by a degree of exceptionalism, which has seen Iran lock horns with the United States and prove itself an effective and shrewdly calculating player on the international stage. Looking to the future, Saikal does not shy away from confronting the difficult choices facing Iran today. Failure to achieve reconciliation with the United States in the coming years, he argues, will not only have serious implications for Iran’s internal stability and for the future security of the Middle East, but also for America’s position within this volatile and unpredictable region.




Iran's Security Policy in the Post-Revolutionary Era


Book Description

Religion, nationalism, ethnicity, economics, and geopolitics all are important in explaining Iran's goals and tactics in its relationship with the outside world, as are the agendas of key security institutions and the ambitions of their leaders. This report assesses Iran's security policy in light of these factors. It examines broad drivers of Iran's security policy, describes important security institutions, explores decisionmaking, and reviews Iran's relations with key countries. The authors conclude that Iraq is widely recognized as the leading threat to Iran's Islamic regime and Afghanistan is seen as an emerging threat. In contrast, Iran has solid, if not necessarily warm, relations with Syria and established working ties to Pakistan and Russia. Iran's policies toward its neighbors are increasingly prudent: It is trying to calm regional tension and end its isolation, although its policies toward Israel and the United States are often an exception to this policy. Iran's security forces, particularly the regular military, are often voices of restraint, preferring shows of force to overactive confrontations. Finally, Iran's security forces generally respect and follow the wishes of Iran's civilian leadership; conducting rogue operations is rare to nonexistent.




Iranian Security Policies at the Crossroads?


Book Description

The struggle between Khatami's so-called reformers and the so-called conservatives, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i, has from the beginning been played out by forces that are far from unified on either side. The struggle has been played out against the backdrop of some consensus positions between the majority of the reformers and the majority of the conservatives, especially on the need for internal stability. However, recent events seem to indicate that a new and more confrontational phase in the relationship may be emerging. Given the foreign and domestic pressures on Iran, three scenarios have become possible. Iran may attempt to continue the status quo. While such an appeal may work in the short term, it is not likely to be sustainable unless economic reforms are launched. The second scenario of internal showdown and external calm posits that the international community, and especially the US, give Iran the space it needs to reform from within and is even able to promote the process through a combination of toughness as regards the conservatives and moderation as regards the reformers. Ultimately, Iran's internal factions will have to find their own way, and it could be a confrontational one if the reformers are determined to push their agenda through in the face of real resistance. Meanwhile, US actions in Iraq stand a good chance of radicalizing Iranian politics for at least the short-term. External showdown and internal unity in the face of a threat posits a real risk of US intervention in Iran in 12 to 18 months as the next step after Iraq has been successfully invaded and occupied. In the face of such a threat, most of the reformers and the conservatives may be expected to put aside their differences to meet the threat to their country, at least for a period of time. This would seem to be the least likely scenario. An invasion of Iran is quite a different matter to Iraq. However, the perceived threat of such an invasion may give the hard-liners an excuse to try to clamp down, which may then backfire. The world should be under no illusions as to how easy it will be for the reformers to wrest power away from the conservatives in Iran. If matters come to a real head, considerable chaos may ensue for a time.







Imperial Crossroads


Book Description

For centuries the world’s Great Powers, along with their fleets, armies, and intelligence services, have been drawn to the Persian Gulf region. Lying at the junction of three great continents – Asia, Europe, and Africa – and sitting athwart the oceanic trade routes that link the cities of the world, the Gulf, like a magnet, has pulled superpowers into the shallow waters and adjacent lands of the 600 mile long appendage of the Indian Ocean. An observer at Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf would alternately have watched pass in the 15th century the treasure ships of Chinese Admiral Zheng He, in the 16th century the caravels of Portuguese Admiral Afonso de Albuquerqe, in the 17th century the merchant ships of the Dutch East India Company, in the 18th to the 20th centuries the frigates and steamships of the British, and finally in the late 20th century to today, the cruisers and aircraft carriers of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Perhaps in the future, Americans may be supplanted by the Indians, or perhaps the Chinese. In the Great Powers’ comings and goings since the 1400s, several consistent broad interests emerged. For the majority of this time, for example, the superpowers entered the Gulf region not to colonize, as the Europeans did in other places, but rather to further trade, which in the 20th century increasingly included oil. They also sought a military presence in the Gulf to protect seaborne flanks to colonial possessions further east on the Indian sub-continent and beyond (India, in fact, has long cast a shadow over the Gulf, given its historic trade and cultural ties to the Gulf region, strong ties that continue today). In their geo-political jockeying, furthermore, the Great Powers sought to deprive their rivals access to the states bordering the Gulf region. In tending to these enduring interests inside the Strait of Hormuz, the Great Powers through history concentrated their trade, political, and military presence along the littorals. Not surprisingly, their navies have played a substantive role. Imperial Crossroads: The Great Powers and the Persian Gulf is a collection of connected chapters, each of which investigates a different perspective in the broader subject of the Great Powers and their involvement with the states of the Persian Gulf. This volume concentrates on four western nations – Portugal, Holland, Britain, and the United States – and concludes with a look at the possible future involvement of two rising Asian powers – China and India.




Unthinkable


Book Description

Examines Iran's current nuclear potential while charting America's future course of action, recounting the prolonged clash between both nations to outline options for American policymakers.




South Korea at the Crossroads


Book Description

Against the backdrop of China’s mounting influence and North Korea’s growing nuclear capability and expanding missile arsenal, South Korea faces a set of strategic choices that will shape its economic prospects and national security. In South Korea at the Crossroads, Scott A. Snyder examines the trajectory of fifty years of South Korean foreign policy and offers predictions—and a prescription—for the future. Pairing a historical perspective with a shrewd understanding of today’s political landscape, Snyder contends that South Korea’s best strategy remains investing in a robust alliance with the United States. Snyder begins with South Korea’s effort in the 1960s to offset the risk of abandonment by the United States during the Vietnam War and the subsequent crisis in the alliance during the 1970s. A series of shifts in South Korean foreign relations followed: the “Nordpolitik” engagement with the Soviet Union and China at the end of the Cold War; Kim Dae Jung’s “Sunshine Policy,” designed to bring North Korea into the international community; “trustpolitik,” which sought to foster diplomacy with North Korea and Japan; and changes in South Korea’s relationship with the United States. Despite its rise as a leader in international financial, development, and climate-change forums, South Korea will likely still require the commitment of the United States to guarantee its security. Although China is a tempting option, Snyder argues that only the United States is both credible and capable in this role. South Korea remains vulnerable relative to other regional powers in northeast Asia despite its rising profile as a middle power, and it must balance the contradiction of desirable autonomy and necessary alliance.




The Security of the Caspian Sea Region


Book Description

Published in association with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.




Pakistan at the Crossroads


Book Description

In Pakistan at the Crossroads, top international scholars assess Pakistan's politics and economics and the challenges faced by its civil and military leaders domestically and diplomatically. Contributors examine the state's handling of internal threats, tensions between civilians and the military, strategies of political parties, police and law enforcement reform, trends in judicial activism, the rise of border conflicts, economic challenges, financial entanglements with foreign powers, and diplomatic relations with India, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, and the United States. In addition to ethnic strife in Baluchistan and Karachi, terrorist violence in Pakistan in response to the American-led military intervention in Afghanistan and in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas by means of drones, as well as to Pakistani army operations in the Pashtun area, has reached an unprecedented level. There is a growing consensus among state leaders that the nation's main security threats may come not from India but from its spiraling internal conflicts, though this realization may not sufficiently dissuade the Pakistani army from targeting the country's largest neighbor. This volume is therefore critical to grasping the sophisticated interplay of internal and external forces complicating the country's recent trajectory.




Arms Control and Iranian Foreign Policy


Book Description

Since 2003, when the world learned that the Islamic Republic of Iran had succeeded in secretly developing a capability to enrich uranium and separate plutonium, the question of Iran’s nuclear program has ranked high on the international political and arms control agenda. This book studies the IRI’s diplomatic operations in the issue area of arms control and demonstrates how arms control diplomacy has formed an integral part of the IRI’s foreign policy during the various phases of its history. Furthermore, it fills a gap in the research literature on Iran’s foreign and security policies by providing the first comprehensive account of Iranian arms control diplomacy under the Islamic regime. This book aims at reconstructing Iran’s diplomatic operations in four distinct thematic areas of arms control: conventional, chemical, biological, and nuclear arms control. It also looks at the diplomatic means by which the IRI’s leadership has tried to achieve its arms control objectives. This text also seeks to identify and examine the individual objectives that have guided Iranian policy choices in the domain of arms control. Finally, it places the reconstructed Iranian objectives into a broader context by elaborating on the fundamental values or foreign policy goals that the IRI’s arms control objectives have served. This highly informative and thought provoking volume will be valuable reading for students, researchers and academics, as well as for commentators and policy-makers interested in Middle East studies, Iranian studies, international relations and arms control.