Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000


Book Description

The author develops, and applies a macroeconomic framework to ascertain the influence of domestic disequilibria, and external shocks on inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period 1994:01 to 2000:03, he estimates several "long-run" relationships for the goods, money, and foreign exchange markets of Uzbekistan, which are characterized by multiple exchange rates, import restrictions, and other domestic administrative controls. The empirical estimates, which use error correction mechanisms for different markets, show that domestic monetary, and output developments, and changes in the official exchange rate, compared with the parallel market rate, have had a significant influence on the short-run behavior of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan. Furthermore, disequilibria in the product, and money markets are the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. It should be noted that the study has been constrained by both the quantity, and the quality of quarterly data available for the Uzbekistan economy.




Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-gap Framework


Book Description

The author presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive, quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap framework focuses on the major imbalances of the economy for evaluating policy choices facing Uzbekistan. It emphasizes the domestic, and external factors that determine economic outcomes, and welfare. The author attempts to quantify two policy scenarios-gradual as against an accelerated policy implementation strategy. He finds that an aggressive adjustment policy would indeed improve most performance, and welfare indicators. Two major ingredients of such an aggressive adjustment strategy are the unification of the exchange rate, and implementation of current account convertibility in the balance of payments. The author also draws attention to the relative importance of external financing, and the sustainability of the balance of payments under alternative structural adjustment paths facing Uzbekistan.




Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.




The Price of Inconvertible Deposits


Book Description

The Argentine crisis witnessed, among other things, a deposit run, the suspension of deposit convertibility, and a "boom" in the stock market. The authors argue that this boom reflects the cost that depositors were willing to incur to get their money out of the banking system, in light of the impending risks. This boom was generalized to all stocks and more pronounced in liquid stocks. Furthermore, the boom was a symptom that deposits were effectively restricted and that investors were not able to circumvent capital controls. This paper--a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to understand financial crises.




The World Bank Research Program 2004


Book Description

The World Bank's research is intended to address critical issues and problems facing member governments in developing and transition economies. How can the governments of the poorest countries generate enough revenue to provide the education and health services essential to reducing poverty and promoting growth and development? How can poor countries attract investors to build the infrastructure their economies need? How can they develop systems to bring clean water to the 2 billion people without it today? How can they train teachers and bring to class the 115 million children who have not yet received any education? And how can rich countries be persuaded to lower market barriers, helping to reverse the decline in export prices for poor countries that has left them earning less from trade today than in the 1970s? These are the types of questions that are addressed in this edition of 'The World Bank Research Program: Abstracts from Current Studies'. This volume reports on research projects initiated, under way, or completed from July 2003 through June 2004. It covers 151 research projects on several broad development related issues, including agriculture, health, education, environment, infrastructure, investment climate, and more. The abstract for each project describes the questions addressed, the analytic methods used, the findings to date, and policy implications.




The Periphery of the Euro


Book Description

This book analyzes the monetary and exchange rate policies in Eastern European countries not covered by the current EU enlargement process. Specifically the book examines the major CIS countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and the Ukraine. (The new Eastern European EU members are also frequently referenced for comparison purposes.) Current and prospective monetary policy options are considered and the applicability of the EU monetary integration experience for the CIS countries and the prospects of a monetary re-unification around the Russian Federation are assessed. This is the first book to formally deal with many of these questions.




Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000


Book Description

Ranaweera develops and applies a macroeconomic framework to ascertain the influence of domestic disequilibria and external shocks on inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period 1994:01 to 2000:03, he estimates several quot;long-runquot; relationships for the goods, money, and foreign exchange markets of Uzbekistan which are characterized by multiple exchange rates, import restrictions, and other domestic administrative controls. The empirical estimates, which use error correction mechanisms for different markets, show that domestic monetary and output developments, and changes in the official exchange rate compared with the parallel market rate have had a significant influence on the short-run behavior of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan. Furthermore, disequilibria in the product and money markets are the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. It should be noted that the study has been constrained by both the quantity and the quality of quarterly data available for the Uzbekistan economy.This paper - a product of the Development Data Group, Development Economics Senior Vice Presidency - is part of an ongoing effort in the group to improve quantitative analytical tools for country assistance strategies.







Income, Inequality, and Poverty During the Transition from Planned to Market Economy


Book Description

World Bank Technical Paper No. 394. Joint Forest Management (JFM) has emerged as an important intervention in the management of Indias forest resources. This report sets out an analytical method for examining the costs and benefits of JFM arrangements. Two pilot case studies in which the method was used demonstrate interesting outcomes regarding incentives for various groups to participate. The main objective of this study is to develop a better understanding of the incentives for communities to participate in JFM.




Global Economic Prospects, June 2021


Book Description

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.