Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism


Book Description

Terrorism is one of the serious threats to international peace and security that we face in this decade. No nation can consider itself immune from the dangers it poses, and no society can remain disengaged from the efforts to combat it. The termcounterterrorism refers to the techniques, strategies, and tactics used in the ?ght against terrorism. Counterterrorism efforts involve many segments of so- ety, especially governmental agencies including the police, military, and intelligence agencies (both domestic and international). The goal of counterterrorism efforts is to not only detect and prevent potential future acts but also to assist in the response to events that have already occurred. A terrorist cell usually forms very quietly and then grows in a pattern – sp- ning international borders, oceans, and hemispheres. Surprising to many, an eff- tive “weapon”, just as quiet – mathematics – can serve as a powerful tool to combat terrorism, providing the ability to connect the dots and reveal the organizational pattern of something so sinister. The events of 9/11 instantly changed perceptions of the wordsterrorist andn- work, especially in the United States. The international community was confronted with the need to tackle a threat which was not con?ned to a discreet physical - cation. This is a particular challenge to the standard instruments for projecting the legal authority of states and their power to uphold public safety. As demonstrated by the events of the 9/11 attack, we know that terrorist attacks can happen anywhere.




Mathematical Methods in Combating Terrorism


Book Description

This document is a preliminary report on the role that mathematical and statistical methods might play in the defense against terrorist attacks. In no way does this replace the efforts of law enforcement agencies or intelligence activities. The hope is that mathematical techniques can make their efforts more efficient. The ideas enumerated here utilize the notion of Probabilistic Risk Analysis, which was developed for the purpose of assessing the safety of nuclear reactors, as well as randomization and game theory. More extensive work in these directions is contemplated for the future. The author is planning workshops to evaluate the ideas presented here and to elicit additional methodologies which may prove useful in this endeavor.




Mathematical Methods for Destabilizing Terrorist Activities


Book Description

This work represents the latest in mathematical and computational techniques to assist in combating terrorist cells. Achieved by quantifying threats and the effectiveness of counterterrorism operations and strategies, contributors share theories and methodologies to generate and analyze terrorist networks and provide mathematical methods and practical algorithms for destabilizing adversaries. New developments include: A new centrality-like measure to screen networks for potential actors of interest; Detection of topological characteristics of these networks to understand structure; Measures based on efficiency of networks to identify key players; Theories to detect command structures of networks by detecting hidden hierarchies; A knowledge base of the terrorist attacks in / planned in the past, by spidering data. Results of command structure via new algorithms with SNA literature (N-Clique, K-Core, etc.) are compared. The best techniques are combined to assist intelligence agencies / law enforcement.




Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism


Book Description

Terrorist groups throughout the world have been studied primarily through the use of social science methods. However, major advances in IT during the past decade have led to significant new ways of studying terrorist groups, making forecasts, learning models of their behaviour, and shaping policies about their behaviour. Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism provides the first in-depth look at how advanced mathematics and modern computing technology is shaping the study of terrorist groups. This book includes contributions from world experts in the field, and presents extensive information on terrorism data sets, new ways of building such data sets in real-time using text analytics, introduces the mathematics and computational approaches to understand terror group behaviour, analyzes terror networks, forecasts terror group behaviour, and shapes policies against terrorist groups. Auxiliary information will be posted on the book’s website. This book targets defence analysts, counter terror analysts, computer scientists, mathematicians, political scientists, psychologists, and researchers from the wide variety of fields engaged in counter-terrorism research. Advanced-level students in computer science, mathematics and social sciences will also find this book useful.




Statistical Methods in Counterterrorism


Book Description

With the realization that many clues and hints preceded the September 11 terrorist attacks, statisticians became an important part of the global war on terror. This book surveys emerging research at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. In it, a diverse group of talented researchers address such topics as Syndromic Surveillance; Modeling and Simulation; Biometric Authentication; and Game Theory. The book includes general reviews of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism, for decision makers with policy backgrounds, as well as technical treatments of statistical issues that will appeal to quantitative researchers.




Conflict and Complexity


Book Description

This book follows the methodologies of complex adaptive systems research in their application to addressing the problems of terrorism, specifically terrorist networks, their structure and various methods of mapping and interdicting them as well as exploring the complex landscape of network-centric and irregular warfare. A variety of new models and approaches are presented here, including Dynamic Network Analysis, DIME/PMESII models, percolation models and emergent models of insurgency. In addition, the analysis is informed by practical experience, with analytical and policy guidance from authors who have served within the U.S. Department of Defense, the British Ministry of Defence as well as those who have served in a civilian capacity as advisors on terrorism and counter-terrorism.




Statistical Methods in Counterterrorism


Book Description

With the realization that many clues and hints preceded the September 11 terrorist attacks, statisticians became an important part of the global war on terror. This book surveys emerging research at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. In it, a diverse group of talented researchers address such topics as Syndromic Surveillance; Modeling and Simulation; Biometric Authentication; and Game Theory. The book includes general reviews of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism, for decision makers with policy backgrounds, as well as technical treatments of statistical issues that will appeal to quantitative researchers.




Toward a Mathematical Theory of Counterterrorism


Book Description

In the war on terror, decisions have to be made quantitative decisions, concerning the allocation of resources, money, and manpower. The methods shown here should help law enforcement and intelligence agencies make these decisions and give them credible arguments with which to defend their decisions. These tools also help answer the question, "Have we disabled a terrorist cell, or is it still capable of carrying out attacks?" While we cannot answer such a question with certainty, the tools provided help determine the probability that we have disrupted a particular terrorist cell. About the author: Professor Jonathan David Farley is in the department of mathematics at the California Institute of Technology. He has been a Science Fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation and a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Seed Magazine named him one of "15 people who have shaped the global conversation about science in 2005." Originally published as a Proteus paper.




Computational Methods for Counterterrorism


Book Description

Modern terrorist networks pose an unprecedented threat to international security. The question of how to neutralize that threat is complicated radically by their fluid, non-hierarchical structures, religious and ideological motivations, and predominantly non-territorial objectives. Governments and militaries are crafting new policies and doctrines to combat terror, but they desperately need new technologies to make these efforts effective. This book collects a wide range of the most current computational research that addresses critical issues for countering terrorism, including: Finding, summarizing, and evaluating relevant information from large and changing data stores; Simulating and predicting enemy acts and outcomes; and Producing actionable intelligence by finding meaningful patterns hidden in huge amounts of noisy data. The book’s four sections describe current research on discovering relevant information buried in vast amounts of unstructured data; extracting meaningful information from digitized documents in multiple languages; analyzing graphs and networks to shed light on adversaries’ goals and intentions; and developing software systems that enable analysts to model, simulate, and predict the effects of real-world conflicts. The research described in this book is invaluable reading for governmental decision-makers designing new policies to counter terrorist threats, for members of the military, intelligence, and law enforcement communities devising counterterrorism strategies, and for researchers developing more effective methods for knowledge discovery in complicated and diverse datasets.




Terrorism Informatics


Book Description

This book is nothing less than a complete and comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art of terrorism informatics. It covers the application of advanced methodologies and information fusion and analysis. It also lays out techniques to acquire, integrate, process, analyze, and manage the diversity of terrorism-related information for international and homeland security-related applications. The book details three major areas of terrorism research: prevention, detection, and established governmental responses to terrorism. It systematically examines the current and ongoing research, including recent case studies and application of terrorism informatics techniques. The coverage then presents the critical and relevant social/technical areas to terrorism research including social, privacy, data confidentiality, and legal challenges.