Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices


Book Description

Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.




NCR-134 Conference


Book Description




NCR-134 Conference


Book Description




NCR-134 Conference


Book Description




NCR-134 Conference


Book Description







NCR-134 Conference


Book Description




The Economics of Livestock Disease Insurance


Book Description

This book on the economics of livestock disease insurance is organized into three major parts. Following an introduction (chapters 1-2), part II (chapters 3-8) includes a variety of discussions about what is known about how to build a livestock insurance programme. It begins with a look at the conceptual basis for government involvement in the management of livestock diseases, including prevention, control, regulation and eradication. This discussion is picked up by looking at incentive compatibility and insurability conditions in the private sector, emphasizing how livestock disease management is unique. Compensation is also examined, including what losses should be compensated, choosing a method to value the losses, determining the portion of losses to compensate, and outlining a potential role for insurance. Finally, the complexity of the risks at the farm level is demonstrated using a model that evaluates revenue insurance. Part III (chapters 9-20) offers a diverse discussion about disease management issues and programmes in Australia, Canada, Europe and the USA. These chapters include more discussion about how to build economically sound insurance programmes, and observations are based on modelling or observing case studies. The book has a subject index.




Beef Industry


Book Description




Agricultural Product Prices


Book Description

Published continuously since 1972, Agricultural Product Prices has become the standard textbook and reference work for students in agricultural and applied economics, buyers and sellers of commodities, and policymakers, clearly explaining conceptual and empirical models applicable to agricultural product markets. The new fifth edition uses up-to-date information and models to explain the behavior of agricultural product prices. Topics include price differences over market levels (marketing margins), price differences over space (regionally and internationally) and by quality attributes, and price variability with the passage of time (seasonal and cyclical variations, trends, and random behavior). William G. Tomek and Harry M. Kaiser review and adapt microeconomic principles to the characteristics of agricultural commodity markets and then apply these principles to the various dimensions of price behavior. They also provide an in-depth discussion of prices established for futures contracts and their relationship to cash (spot) market prices; cover the influential roles of price discovery institutions, such as auctions and negotiated contracts, and government policies regulating trade and farms; and discuss the specification, use, and evaluation of empirical models of agricultural prices, placing emphasis on the challenges of doing high-quality, useful analyses and interpreting results.