Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons


Book Description

Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecasts are compared using three different evaluation tests. With data from an equity index and two foreign exchange returns, we show that asymmetric models provide statistically significant forecast improvements upon the GARCH model for two of the datasets and improve forecasts for all datasets by means of forecasts combinations. These results extend to about 10 days in the future, beyond which the forecasts are statistically inseparable from each other.







Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models at Medium-Term Horizons


Book Description

Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecasts are compared using three different evaluation tests. With data from an equity index and two foreign exchange returns, we show that asymmetric models provide statistically significant forecast improvements upon the GARCH model for two of the datasets and improve forecasts for all datasets by means of forecasts combinations. These results extend to about 10 days in the future, beyond which the forecasts are statistically inseparable from each other.




Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models


Book Description

We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH (1,1) model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH (1,1) volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH (1,1) model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.




Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications


Book Description

A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.




Essays on Financial Econometrics


Book Description

This dissertation contains three self-contained chapters dealing with volatility modeling and forecasting. In the first chapter we compare a set of standard GARCH models with a group of Markov Regime-Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) in terms of their ability to forecast the US stock market volatility at horizons that range from one day to one month. The empirical analysis demonstrates that MRS-GARCH models do really outperform all standard GARCH models in forecasting volatility at horizons shorter than one week. In particular, all tests reject the presence of a better model than the MRS-GARCH with normal innovations. However, at forecast horizons longer than one week, standard asymmetric GARCH models tend to be superior. In chapter 2 a new model to analyze the comovements in the volatilities of a portfolio is proposed. The Pure Variance Common Features model is a factor model for the conditional variances of a portfolio of assets, designed to isolate a small number of variance features that drive all assets' volatilities. It decomposes the conditional variance into a short-run idiosyncratic component (a low-order ARCH process) and a long-run component (the variance factors). An empirical example provides evidence that models with very few variance features perform well in capturing the long-run common volatilities of the equity components of the Dow Jones. In the third and last chapter we compare standard univariate models and multivariate factor models in terms of their ability to forecast the realized variances of a group of major international stock exchanges. Our results show that those models adopting equally weighted regional factors outperform all the others. In addition, models that use factors obtained from canonical correlation analysis tend to outperform all the others that employ different multivariate techniques, therefore confirming their predicting power.




GARCH Models


Book Description

This book provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to understanding GARCH time series models and their applications whilst presenting the most advanced results concerning the theory and practical aspects of GARCH. The probability structure of standard GARCH models is studied in detail as well as statistical inference such as identification, estimation and tests. The book also provides coverage of several extensions such as asymmetric and multivariate models and looks at financial applications. Key features: Provides up-to-date coverage of the current research in the probability, statistics and econometric theory of GARCH models. Numerous illustrations and applications to real financial series are provided. Supporting website featuring R codes, Fortran programs and data sets. Presents a large collection of problems and exercises. This authoritative, state-of-the-art reference is ideal for graduate students, researchers and practitioners in business and finance seeking to broaden their skills of understanding of econometric time series models.




An International Comparison of Implied, Realized and GARCH Volatility Forecasts


Book Description

We compare the predictive ability and economic value of implied, realized and GARCH volatility models for 13 equity indices from 10 countries. Model ranking is similar across countries, but varies with the forecast horizon. At the daily horizon, the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model offers the most accurate predictions while an implied volatility model that corrects for the volatility risk premium is superior at the monthly horizon. Widely used GARCH models have inferior performance in almost all cases considered. All methods perform significantly worse over the 2008-09 crisis period. Finally, implied volatility offers significant improvements against historical methods for international portfolio diversification.




Volatility Forecasting


Book Description

Predicting the one-step-ahead volatility is of great importance in measuring and managing investment risk more accurately. Taking into consideration the main characteristics of the conditional volatility of asset returns, I estimate an asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model. The model is extended to also capture i) the skewness and excess kurtosis that the asset returns exhibit and ii) the fractional integration of the conditional variance. The model, which takes into consideration both the fractional integration of the conditional variance as well as the skewed and leptokurtic conditional distribution of innovations, produces the most accurate one-day-ahead volatility forecasts. The study recommends to portfolio managers and traders that extended ARCH models generate more accurate volatility forecasts of stock returns.




IMF Research Bulletin


Book Description