Author : Alan Grossman
Publisher :
Page : 268 pages
File Size : 22,5 MB
Release : 2007
Category : Performing Arts
ISBN :
Migration has rapidly become a fundamental component of modern life and increasingly determines who we are and how we define ourselves. This text explains the phenomena of mobility and displacement through essays, films, photography and audio recordings.
Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 417 pages
File Size : 16,71 MB
Release : 2013-12-16
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9400775512
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Author : Andrei Rogers
Publisher : SAGE Publications, Incorporated
Page : 108 pages
File Size : 10,76 MB
Release : 1985-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN :
Andrei Rogers, one of the world's leading authorities on population trends, offers a powerful technique for carrying out regional population projections. He gives a clear step-by-step analysis and demonstrations of actual projections of future populations at the regional level. The examples show how to calculate regional population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions using data from several developed and less developed countries.
Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 318 pages
File Size : 10,94 MB
Release : 2010-10-23
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9048188970
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 433 pages
File Size : 40,97 MB
Release : 2005-12-21
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 0306473720
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Author :
Publisher :
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 21,73 MB
Release : 1990
Category : Population forecasting
ISBN :
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 44,28 MB
Release : 2000-10-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 0309069904
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author : Steve H. Murdock
Publisher :
Page : 420 pages
File Size : 29,20 MB
Release : 1983
Category : Radioactive waste disposal
ISBN :
Author : Tom Wilson
Publisher : Springer
Page : 219 pages
File Size : 26,90 MB
Release : 2015-11-25
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 3319221353
This edited collection shows how demographic analysis plays a pivotal role in planning, policy and funding decisions in Australia. Drawing on the latest demographic data and methods, these case studies in applied demography demonstrate that population dynamics underpin the full spectrum of contemporary social, economic and political issues. The contributors harness a range of demographic statistics and develop innovative techniques demonstrating how population dynamics influence issues such as electoral representation, the distribution of government funding, metropolitan and local planning, the provision of aged housing, rural depopulation, coastal growth, ethnic diversity and the well-being of Australia's Indigenous community. Moving beyond simple statistics, the case studies show that demographic methods and models offer crucial insights into contemporary problems and provide essential perspectives to aid efficiency, equity in public policy and private sector planning. Together the volume represents essential reading for students across the social sciences as for policy makers in government and private industry.
Author : Paul R. Campbell
Publisher :
Page : 90 pages
File Size : 25,53 MB
Release : 1994
Category : Demographic transition
ISBN :
