Republic of Lithuania: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Lithuania


Book Description

With a demonstrated resilience to the crisis and the recovery gaining strength, macroeconomic policies should aim at preserving stability and complementing structural reforms that address long-standing challenges. A medium-term plan to rebuild buffers, support potential growth, and target pockets of vulnerability would help address pre-existing disparities and poverty. Sustained productivity growth, supported by the implementation of politically difficult but needed structural reforms, is the only way to support high wage growth and convergence with Western Europe. Failure to do so could jeopardize Lithuania’s hard-earned competitiveness gains.




Republic of Lithuania


Book Description

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Lithuania picked up steam in 2017, following two years of sluggish growth. Real GDP expanded by 3.9 percent largely because of the acceleration of investment, which benefited from credit growth and high capacity utilization. Private consumption remained the main engine of growth, though it was held back by decelerating real wages. The external current account swung to a modest surplus with exports benefiting from past investments in export capacity and improved external demand. Growth in 2018 is projected at 3.2 percent, mainly because of weaker exports after a very strong performance in 2017 and a slowdown of consumption driven by negative employment growth.




Republic of Lithuania


Book Description

The strong post-pandemic recovery led to demand driven inflationary pressures. Supply side bottlenecks and large increases in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded these pressures and resulted in high and persistent inflation. The negative impact on disposable income, higher interest rates and weaker external demand have led to a deterioration of economic activity. If high inflation becomes entrenched, it will erode competitiveness and slow the successful convergence process. The financial system has ample liquidity and capital buffers to address the weakening economic cycle. Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ profitability, but they also bring significant risks.




Finland: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Finland


Book Description

With strong policy support, Finland suffered a relatively mild economic contraction in 2020 followed by a swift recovery in 2021. Medium-term growth prospects are less strong, due to adverse demographics and low productivity growth—trends that precede the pandemic. Public debt has increased due to pandemic-related support and will remain on a rising trajectory in the medium term, largely reflecting permanent spending increases.




Green Finance and Investment Sustainable Infrastructure for Low-carbon Development in the EU Eastern Partnership Hotspot Analysis and Needs Assessment


Book Description

This report analyses planned infrastructure projects, decision-making frameworks related to infrastructure development and strategic planning documents in the six countries of the EU Eastern Partnership: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.




Republic of Estonia


Book Description

Estonia’s economy is vulnerable to the fallout from the war in Ukraine given its geographical proximity to Russia, the geopolitical context, and high passthrough from global energy prices to domestic inflation. Although direct exposures to Russia and Ukraine through trade, services, and financial channels appear to be contained, the war is already significantly affecting economic confidence. Nevertheless, economic activity has progressively adapted to the pandemic, rebounding strongly in 2021, and as of mid-2022, remaining resilient to the headwinds from the war. Inflation has surged into double digits and is increasingly broad-based.




Global Waves of Debt


Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.




Republic of Estonia


Book Description

Russia’s war on Ukraine triggered supply side disruptions, shifting up price and cost levels compared to the euro area average and hurting competitiveness. These developments added to longer-standing problems. Estonia’s export market share has stalled since soon after the GFC as productivity growth fell and the country’s previous competitive edge slowly eroded.




Republic of San Marino


Book Description

Context. The global financial crisis and international efforts to address preferential tax regimes exposed the vulnerabilities of San Marino’s oversized financial sector servicing nonresidents. While the banking system entered a deep crisis in 2008 and continues to struggle, the nonfinancial sector has experienced a recovery underpinned by cost-competitiveness and strong corporate balance sheets. More recently, prudent fiscal policies, access to international capital markets and favorable external conditions improved the public finances and boosted confidence. As a result, the economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite volatile financial conditions, the government was able to rollover the Eurobond maturing next year. However, San Marino is a microstate subject to very high volatility and financial sector vulnerabilities remain, suggesting that larger-than-usual fiscal buffers are needed.




Republic of Latvia


Book Description

Latvia is facing an inflation shock, slow growth, and geopolitical challenges, while the long-term policy concern is to sustain the income convergence process. Headline inflation has surged over the past year in Latvia, measuring 12.3 percent y/y in May, while core inflation increased to 12.4 percent y/y in May. The new government, which took office in December 2022, will also have to continue to deal with the spillovers in the Baltic region from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact of sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus, the cost-of-living crisis, energy security, and the expected slowdown in growth. To secure high long-term growth in a low-inflation environment, Latvia needs to address three structural issues: (i) low productivity, (ii) low investment, and (iii) skilled labor shortages.