Interim Review of The Adequacy of The Fund’s Precautionary Balances


Book Description

Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.




Review Of The Adequacy Of The Fund’s Precautionary Balances


Book Description

On December 12, 2022, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place on the standard two-year cycle, after an interim review in December 2021. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. In conducting the review, the Executive Board applied the rules-based framework agreed in 2010. Precautionary balances have risen further since the 2021 interim review and coverage metrics have strengthened. At the same, credit and other financial risks have also increased. The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate. Against this background, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion. The Board also discussed the role of surcharges, which are primarily a component of the Fund’s risk management framework but also contribute to reserves accumulation.




Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances


Book Description

On October 30, 2020, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. Precautionary balances, comprising the Fund’s general and special reserves and the Special Contingent Account (SCA-1), are one element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. These balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. This review of the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances took place on the standard two-year cycle, although it was delayed by a few months to allow for an assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Fund financial risks. In conducting the review, the Executive Board applied the rules-based framework agreed in 2010.




Review of the Adequacy of the Fund's Precautionary Balances


Book Description

This paper reviews the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances, using the framework approved by the Board in 2010. The review takes place on the standard two-year cycle. The paper discusses developments since the last review in 2014 and revisits several issues discussed at that time. The framework provides an indicative range for the target for precautionary balances linked to credit outstanding, and allows for judgment in setting this target. A reserve coverage ratio of 20-30 percent draws on approaches in other IFIs, adapted to the circumstances of the Fund, and is a guide for determining the target. At the same time, Directors have emphasized the continued importance of judgment and Board discretion in light of a broad assessment of financial risks facing the Fund.




Review of the Adequacy of the Fund's Precautionary Balances


Book Description

This paper reviews the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances, using the framework approved by the Board in 2010. The review takes place on the standard two-year cycle and assesses developments since the last review in 2016.




Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2017 and FY 2018


Book Description

The Fund’s total net income for FY 2017, including surcharges, is projected at about SDR 1.7 billion or some SDR 0.7 billion higher than expected in April 2016. This mainly reflects the IAS 19 adjustment (relating to reporting of employee benefits), which is expected to contribute about SDR 0.4 billion to net income, and higher investment income. Lending income is expected to be modestly lower than the April 2016 estimates. The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 1.2 billion for FY 2017 (which excludes projected income of the gold endowment), be placed equally to the special and general reserve. After the placement of GRA FY 2017 net income to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 16.4 billion at the end of FY 2017. The paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase in the Fund’s reserves from the GRA to the Investment Account. In April 2016, the margin for the rate of charge was set at 100 basis points for the two years FY 2017 and FY 2018. The margin may be adjusted before the end of the first year of this two-year period (i.e., FY 2017) but only if warranted by fundamental changes in the underlying factors relevant for the establishment of the margin at the start of the two-year period. Staff does not propose a change in the margin. The projections for FY 2018 point to a net income position of SDR 0.7 billion. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions.




Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances


Book Description

The paper reviews the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances and proposes a more transparent and rules-based framework for adjusting the precautionary balance target through time. The framework seeks to provide sufficient flexibility to capture the main elements considered relevant by the Board in the past when setting the target and draws on approaches followed by other IFIs, adapted to the particular circumstances of the Fund.




The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework


Book Description

The medium-term income projections have been updated from the April 2015 outlook and the February review of the adequacy of precautionary balances. The main changes to the outlook stem from a more gradual rise in the SDR interest rates and lower surcharge income following the lowering of the surcharges threshold. The revised projections still show a positive forecast for net operational income (and surcharges) over the medium term, albeit lower than projected a year ago. Lending income (excluding surcharges) is marginally higher compared with earlier estimates. Surcharge income is estimated to be lower, reflecting the adjustment of the surcharges thresholds following the implementation of quota increases under the 14th General Review. Projected income from the Fixed-Income Subaccount of the Investment Account and interest-free resources are expected to increase more gradually over the medium-term as market indicators now point to a slower rise in interest rates from their current low levels. The expenditure path includes an increase in real terms of about 1⁄2 percent in the net administrative budget for FY 2017 to accommodate rising costs for physical and IT security. Moreover, reflecting further upward pressure over the medium term and uncertainty about the scope for offsetting savings, the traditional baseline assumption of a constant real spending envelope in the outer years is complemented by an alternative scenario with a further moderate spending increase of 11⁄2 percent, phased in over FY 2018–19. In addition, a lower projected U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate increases the expenses in SDR terms.




Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2018 and FY 2019-20


Book Description

"The Fund’s total net income for FY 2018 is projected at about SDR 0.7 billion, broadly in line with the April 2017 estimate. The projections for total lending income are broadly unchanged. Most sources of lending income are lower, reflecting a lower level of credit outstanding as a result of advance repurchases and delayed disbursements. However, projected commitment fee income is higher following the early cancellation of a large FCL arrangement in November 2017. The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 0.7 billion for FY 2018 (excluding projected income of the gold sales profits-funded Endowment Subaccount) be placed to the special and general reserve. After the placement of GRA FY 2018 net income to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 17.4 billion at the end of FY 2018. The paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase in the Fund’s reserves from the GRA to the Investment Account. The paper also revisits options for the allocation of net income between the special and general reserve, and proposes that net income be allocated equally between the special and general reserve. In line with the recent Board discussion of a framework for guiding future payouts from the Endowment Subaccount, the paper presents a detailed proposal, which includes delaying payouts for three years to protect the real value of the Endowment. The paper also recommends that the margin for the rate of charge for the period FY 2019–2020 be kept unchanged at 100 basis points. The margin will again be set under the exceptional circumstances clause, as non-lending income continues to be constrained by the low interest rate environment and lending income will be used to finance a portion of the Fund’s non-lending activities. The projections for FY 2019 and FY 2020 point to a net income position of SDR 0.4 billion and SDR 1 billion, respectively. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions."




Review of the Adequacy of and Options for Supplementing Fund Resources


Book Description

This review discusses the potential scale of a possible increase, as well as modalities that would facilitate a prompt increase in the Fund’s resources should the need for additional resources be agreed. While a permanent increase in Fund resources has traditionally been achieved through an increase in quotas, borrowing has often been used to bridge to a general quota increase given the substantial time involved in the latter undertaking. At a time of crisis, the case for such an approach is even stronger. The precise design and scope of any such borrowing would need to be considered in consultation with potential creditors, and with careful attention to the broader implications for the Fund’s finances.