Sophisticated Investor Attention and Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements


Book Description

The SEC's EDGAR log files provide a direct, powerful measure of attention from relatively sophisticated investors. We apply this measure to a sample of earnings announcements from 2003 to 2016. We find that the stock market is less surprised, and the post-earnings-announcement drift is weaker for earnings announcements receiving more pre-announcement investor attention, measured in downloads by humans from EDGAR. We further show that it is profitable to utilize the different drift patterns. An attention-based portfolio without the SEC reporting lag that longs stocks with the lowest investor attention and most positive earnings surprises and shorts stocks with the lowest attention and most negative earnings surprises generates a statistically significant monthly alpha of 1.24% after adjusting for standard asset pricing factors.




Total Attention


Book Description

We show evidence that consistent with category-learning behavior, investors allocate more attention to macroeconomic news than to firm-specific news, such as earnings announcements. Despite the distracting effect of macroeconomic news on investor attention, we find that earnings announcements with concurrent macroeconomic news announcements actually have significantly stronger immediate market response and weaker post-earnings announcement drift. We hypothesize that the combined total attention to macroeconomic news and earnings announcements helps investors understand both the systematic and firm-specific components of earnings surprises. Consistent with the hypothesis, our results show that the macroeconomic news effect is mainly driven by firms with high exposure to macroeconomic news. Moreover, we show that the effect is stronger when macroeconomic news contains more information and for firms with greater information uncertainty. Finally, we provide evidence that macroeconomic news helps reduce stock return uncertainty and enhance stock price efficiency.




Trading on Corporate Earnings News


Book Description

Profit from earnings announcements, by taking targeted, short-term option positions explicitly timed to exploit them! Based on rigorous research and huge data sets, this book identifies the specific earnings-announcement trades most likely to yield profits, and teaches how to make these trades—in plain English, with real examples! Trading on Corporate Earnings News is the first practical, hands-on guide to profiting from earnings announcements. Writing for investors and traders at all experience levels, the authors show how to take targeted, short-term option positions that are explicitly timed to exploit the information in companies’ quarterly earnings announcements. They first present powerful findings of cutting-edge studies that have examined market reactions to quarterly earnings announcements, regularities of earnings surprises, and option trading around corporate events. Drawing on enormous data sets, they identify the types of earnings-announcement trades most likely to yield profits, based on the predictable impacts of variables such as firm size, visibility, past performance, analyst coverage, forecast dispersion, volatility, and the impact of restructurings and acquisitions. Next, they provide real examples of individual stocks–and, in some cases, conduct large sample tests–to guide investors in taking advantage of these documented regularities. Finally, they discuss crucial nuances and pitfalls that can powerfully impact performance.




Investor Inattention, Firm Reaction, and Friday Earnings Announcements


Book Description

Do firms release news strategically in response to investor inattention? We consider news about earnings and analyze the response of returns to announcements on Friday and other weekdays. Friday announcements have less immediate and more delayed stock return response. The delayed response as a percentage of the total response is 60 percent on Friday and 40 percent on other weekdays. In addition, abnormal trading volume around announcement day is 10 percent lower for Friday announcements. These findings suggest that weekends distract investor attention temporarily. They support explanations of post-earning announcement drift based on underreaction to information caused by limited attention. We also document that firms release worse announcements on Friday. Friday announcements are associated with a 45 percent higher probability of a negative earnings surprise and a 50 basis points lower abnormal return. The firm-based evidence of strategic news release corroborates the investor-based evidence of inattention on Friday. The results for stock returns, volume, and strategic behavior support the hypothesis of limited attention.




Aggregate Market Attention and Earnings Announcements


Book Description

This dissertation examines the relation between the volume of earnings disclosures by firms and aggregate stock market trading activity. Although the relation between the trading activity experienced by disclosing firms and announcement volume is negative, consistent with the firm level evidence of Hirschleifer et al. (2009a), the relations between number of announcements and both overall trading and non-announcer volume are positive. Hence, while it is true that high numbers of announcement distract investor attention within the set of announcing firms, it is also true that investor attention to the market as a whole (i.e., aggregate attention) increases with number of announcements. Results also show that the average aggregate surprise content of the announced earnings has a negative impact on overall volume. The strong positive relation between aggregate attention and number of announcements is mainly driven by large announcers. Finally, the arrival of a greater number of negative earnings surprises distracts investor attention from the announcers, and the aggregate market attention is equally attracted by positive and negative numbers of news.




Media Coverage and Investors' Attention to Earnings Announcements


Book Description

Does investors' inattention contribute to the post-earnings announcement drift? I study this question using media coverage as a proxy for attention. I compare announcements made by the same firm in the same year and generating the same earnings surprise, when one announcement is covered in the Wall Street Journal while the other is not. I find that announcements with media coverage generate a stronger price and trading volume reaction at the time of the announcement and less subsequent drift. Moreover, this effect is less pronounced for more visible firms and on high-distraction days. These results are both economically and statistically strong. They lend support to the notion that limited attention is an important source of friction in financial markets.




Earnings Notifications, Investor Attention, and the Earnings Announcement Premium


Book Description

This paper provides new evidence that investor attention explains positive returns around earnings announcements and reconciles the attention explanation with information-based explanations in the literature. I use earnings notifications, which are attention-grabbing announcements of the upcoming earnings date but otherwise provide little new information. I find positive returns, more EDGAR searches, and higher trading volumes on notification days. I also find that attention and returns around the earnings announcement are lower in the presence of notifications, consistent with notifications attenuating investor attention. I show that attention has its strongest effect on returns in the days immediately following the earnings announcement.




Limited Investor Attention And The Earnings Announcement Premium


Book Description

This paper explores the extent to which limited investor attention explains positive average stock returns around earnings announcements. I observe positive abnormal returns on days when firms announce the date earnings will be released (earnings notification days) and lower returns around earnings announcements when firms begin providing earnings notifications. I find a similar effect for other highly-visible news events occurring soon before earnings announcements and higher returns around earnings announcements and when retail investors are more actively acquiring information about the firm. My results suggest that the attention-grabbing effect of earnings announcements provides a partial explanation of positive average returns around earnings announcements.




Stock Price Reaction to Quarterly Earnings Announcements with respect of outlook changes and deviation to consensus forecast


Book Description

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1.1, EBS European Business School gGmbH (Finance), language: English, abstract: Many authors have already studied about stock price reactions after earnings announcements yet, which is because of the importance of earnings announcements, in particular quarterly earnings announcements, for many investors. However, all major studies concerning this topic deal with long-term scenarios, the stock’s price performance is measured for a time period of at least three quarters. Due to the fact that there are many investors, especially institutional investors such as hedge funds that trade stocks much more frequently, the existing studies are not relevant for them. This paper studies stock price reactions around quarterly earnings announcements for companies listed in Deutscher Aktienindex (DAX) or Midcap DAX (MDAX) with respect to changes of the company’s full-year outlook and of earnings surprise regarding analyst consensus forecast within ten days before and after the announcement date. Hence, this paper aims to analyse short-term reaction to quarterly earnings announcements, which are of relevance for all investors, whose investment strategy is, at least partially, focussing on the short-term performance. The main target group of this analysis are therefore hedge funds and investors that run short-term strategies. Due to the fact that the widespread Event Study Methodology is focused on the long-term, it is irrelevant for this analysis.




Limited Attention and the Earnings Announcement Returns of Past Stock Market Winners


Book Description

We document that stocks with the strongest prior 12-month returns experience a significant average market-adjusted return of 1.58 percent during the five trading days before their earnings announcements and a significant average market-adjusted return of 1.86 percent in the five trading days afterward. These returns remain significant even after accounting for transactions costs. We empirically test two possible explanations for these anomalous returns. The first is that unexpectedly positive news hits the market over the few days prior to these firms' earnings announcements, and that unexpectedly negative news comes out just afterwards. The second possibility is that stocks with sharp run-ups tend to attract individual investors' attention, and investment dollars, particularly before their earnings announcements. We do not find evidence for an information-based explanation; however, our analysis suggests the possibility that the trading decisions of individual investors are at least partly responsible for the return pattern we observe.