Structure of Decision


Book Description

This book outlines a new approach to the analysis of decision making based on "cognitive maps." A cognitive map is a graphic representation intended to capture the structure of a decision maker's stated beliefs about a particular problem. Following introductory chapters that develop the theory and techniques of cognitive mapping, a set of five empirical studies applies these new techniques to five policy areas. Originally published in 1976. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.




Process and Structure in Human Decision Making


Book Description

Fourteen contributors from six countries present recent research results in the study of decision-making processes. They address cognitive and evaluative issues involved in human choice and judgement. Several studies model how decision makers represent and structure information involved in making choices. Others discuss theory, methods, or group decision making.




Theory of Value Structure


Book Description

The theory of value structure concerns the meaning of “better than” and “good,” as well as the way in which values serve as a basis for rational decision making. Drawing methodologically from economics and theories of decision making, the aim of serious axiology in metaethics is to do justice to problems that have puzzled philosophers of value for centuries. Can value comparisons be cyclic? Are all values comparable with each other and can decision makers just add up different aspects of an evaluation to determine the best course of action? A Theory of Value Structure: From Values to Decisions starts with a thorough introduction to the modeling of “better than” comparisons from a normative perspective. In the philosophical part of the book, Erich H. Rast argues that aspects of “better than” comparisons can differ qualitatively so much that one aspect may outrank another. Consequently, the classical weighted sum aggregation model fails. Values cannot always be summed up and comparisons may be fundamentally noncompensatory, an indeterminacy that explains problems like the apparent nontransitivity of “better than” and hard cases in decision making. Using a lexicographic method of value comparisons, Rast develops a multidimensional theory of “better than” and shows how and to which extent it can be combined with standard methods of decision making under uncertainty by using rank-dependent utility theory.







Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information


Book Description

Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.




The Capital Structure Decision


Book Description

In 1958 an academic paper on corporate finance written by two professors (Merton Miller and Frances Modigliani, who were later awarded the Nobel prize for their research efforts) was published in The American Economic Review. One prime conclusion of their paper was that the exact form of a firm's capital structure did not affect the firm's value. Later papers by the same two authors and by many others modified the assumptions and changed this conclusion. We now think that capital structure decisions do affect a firm's value and corporate managers should understand better the financing alternatives that are available. One of the most important financial decisions is the decision to buy or lease assets. The leasing industry is large and getting larger. Unfortunately, it is very easy for a firm to evaluate incorrectly lease alternatives (see Chapter 12). The capital structure decision is one of the three most important financial decisions that management make (the distribution of earnings and the capital budgeting decisions are the other two contenders). Managers should increase their understanding of capital structure alternatives and remember that choosing the best capital structure is an art and not an exact simple calculation. But applying the art can be improved with understanding.




Interpretable Machine Learning


Book Description

This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.




Community Power Structure


Book Description

In this study of busy, complex Regional City -- and it is a real city -- the author has analyzed the power structure from top to bottom. He has searched out the men of power and, under fictitious names, has described them as they initiate policies in their offices, their homes, their clubs. They form a small, stable group at the top of the social structure. Their decision-making activities are not known to the public, but they are responsible for whatever is done, or not done, in their community. Beneath this top policy group is a clearly marked social stratification, through which decisions sift down to the substructures chosen to put them into effect. The dynamic relations within the power structure are made clear in charts, but the real interest lies in the author's report of what people themselves say. The African American community is also studied, with its own power structure and its own complicated relations with the large community. The method of study is fully described in an Appendix. The book should be of particular value to sociologists, political scientists, city-planning executives, Community Council members, social workers, teachers, and research workers in related fields. As a vigorous and readable presentation of facts, it should appeal to the reader who would like to know how his/her own community is run. Community Power Structure is not an expose. It is a description and discussion of a social phenomenon as it occured. It is based on sound field research, including personal observation and interviews by the author.




Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions


Book Description

A comprehensive guide to making better capital structure and corporate financing decisions in today's dynamic business environment Given the dramatic changes that have recently occurred in the economy, the topic of capital structure and corporate financing decisions is critically important. The fact is that firms need to constantly revisit their portfolio of debt, equity, and hybrid securities to finance assets, operations, and future growth. Capital Structure and Corporate Financing Decisions provides an in-depth examination of critical capital structure topics, including discussions of basic capital structure components, key theories and practices, and practical application in an increasingly complex corporate world. Throughout, the book emphasizes how a sound capital structure simultaneously minimizes the firm's cost of capital and maximizes the value to shareholders. Offers a strategic focus that allows you to understand how financing decisions relates to a firm's overall corporate policy Consists of contributed chapters from both academics and experienced professionals, offering a variety of perspectives and a rich interplay of ideas Contains information from survey research describing actual financial practices of firms This valuable resource takes a practical approach to capital structure by discussing why various theories make sense and how firms use them to solve problems and create wealth. In the wake of the recent financial crisis, the insights found here are essential to excelling in today's volatile business environment.




Rational Decisions in Organisations


Book Description

Managers in organisations must make rational decisions. Rational decision making is the opposite of intuitive decision making. It is a strict procedure utilising objective knowledge and logic. It involves identifying the problem to solve, gathering facts, identifying options and outcomes, analysing them, considering all the relationships and selecting the decision. Rational decision making requires support: methods and software tools. The identification of the problem to solve needs methods that would measure and evaluate the current situation. Identification and evaluation of options and analysis of the available possibilities involves analysis and optimisation methods. Incorporating intuition into rational decision making needs adequate methods that would translate ideas or observed behaviours into hard data. Communication, observation and opinions recording is hardly possible today without adequate software. Information and data that form the input, intermediate variables and the output must be stored, managed and made accessible in a user-friendly manner. Rational Decisions in Organisations: Theoretical and Practical Aspects presents selected recent developments in the support of the widely understood rational decision making in organisations, illustrated through case studies. The book shows not only the variety of perspectives involved in decision making, but also the variety of domains where rational decision support systems are needed. The case studies present decision making by medical doctors, students and managers of various universities, IT project teams, construction companies, banks and small and large manufacturing companies. Covering the richness of relationships in which the decisions should and must be taken, the book illustrates how modern organisations operate in chains and networks; they have multiple responsibilities, including social, legal, business and ethical duties. Nowadays, managers in organisations can make transparent decisions and consider a multitude of stakeholders and their diverse features, incorporating diverse criteria, using multiple types and drivers of information and decision-making patterns, and referring to numerous lessons learned. As the book makes clear, the marriage of theoretical ideas with the possibilities offered by technology can make the decisions in organisations more rational and, at the same time, more human.