The Impact of Volatility on Economic Growth
Author : Dmitry Kulikov
Publisher :
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 15,91 MB
Release : 2012
Category :
ISBN : 9789949493104
Author : Dmitry Kulikov
Publisher :
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 15,91 MB
Release : 2012
Category :
ISBN : 9789949493104
Author : Philippe Aghion
Publisher : OUP Oxford
Page : 160 pages
File Size : 11,46 MB
Release : 2005-07-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0191530239
It has long been recognized that productivity growth and the business cycle are closely interrelated. Yet, until recently, the two phenomena have been investigated separately in the economics literature. This book provides the first consistent attempt to analyze the effects of macroeconomic volatility on productivity growth, and also the reverse causality from growth to business cycles. The authors show that by looking at the economy through the lens of private entrepreneurs, who invest under credit constraints, one can go some way towards explaining persistent macroeconomic volatility and the effects of volatility on growth. Beginning with an analysis of the effects of volatility on growth, the authors argue that the lower the level of financial development in a country the more detrimental the effect of volatility on growth. This prediction is confirmed by cross-country panel regressions. The data also suggests that a fixed exchange rate regime or more countercyclical budgetary policies are growth-enhancing in countries with a lower level of financial development. The former reduce aggregate volatility whereas the latter reduce the negative effects of volatility on long-term productivity-enhancing investment by firms. The book concludes with an investigation into how the interplay between credit constraints and pecuniary externalities is sufficient to generate persistent business cycles and to explain the occurrence of currency crises.
Author : Donald W. K. Andrews
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 606 pages
File Size : 14,73 MB
Release : 2005-06-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521844413
This 2005 collection pushed forward the research frontier in four areas of theoretical econometrics.
Author : Silvio Borner
Publisher : Springer
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 50,4 MB
Release : 1998-04-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1349262846
The state and its institutions are crucial for economic development: for better and for worse. This insight informs this important, up-to-date and authoritative survey of new trends in growth economics and the widely divergent economic performance of developing countries - for example, between Latin America and South-east Asia - which seemed to be similarly placed just a generation ago. The decisive role of the political dimension in economic growth seems clear but there are many challenges to be met in getting an analytical handle on the precise determinants and in testing empirically for this. This is the challenge taken up by the international team of contributors.
Author : Joshua Aizenman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 615 pages
File Size : 48,17 MB
Release : 2005-10-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1139446940
Economic volatility has come into its own after being treated for decades as a secondary phenomenon in the business cycle literature. This evolution has been driven by the recognition that non-linearities, long buried by the economist's penchant for linearity, magnify the negative effects of volatility on long-run growth and inequality, especially in poor countries. This collection organizes empirical and policy results for economists and development policy practitioners into four parts: basic features, including the impact of volatility on growth and poverty; commodity price volatility; the financial sector's dual role as an absorber and amplifier of shocks; and the management and prevention of macroeconomic crises. The latter section includes a cross-country study, case studies on Argentina and Russia, and lessons from the debt default episodes of the 1980s and 1990s.
Author : Norman Loayza
Publisher :
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 35,42 MB
Release : 2016
Category :
ISBN :
Hnatkovska and Loayza study the empirical, cross-country relationship between macroeconomic volatility and long-run economic growth. They address four central questions:- Does the volatility-growth link depend on country and policy characteristics, such as the level of development or trade openness?- Does this link reflect a statistically and economically significant causal effect from volatility to growth?- Has this relationship been stable over time and has it become stronger in recent decades?- Does the volatility-growth connection actually reveal the impact of crises rather than the overall effect of cyclical fluctuations?The authors find that macroeconomic volatility and long-run economic growth are indeed negatively related. This negative link is exacerbated in countries that are poor, institutionally underdeveloped, undergoing intermediate stages of financial development, or unable to conduct countercyclical fiscal policies. They find evidence that this negative relationship actually reflects the harmful effect from volatility to growth. Furthermore, the authors find that the negative effect of volatility on growth has become considerably larger in the past two decades and that it is mostly due to large recessions rather than normal cyclical fluctuations.This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the effects of volatility.
Author : Viktoria Hnatkovska
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 24,40 MB
Release : 2004
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 4020314225
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 21,34 MB
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 146395476X
This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as a cross-sectionally augmented version of the pooled mean group (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of commodity terms of trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant countries contribute to faster growth. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox.
Author : Hilal Yildiz
Publisher :
Page : 15 pages
File Size : 14,5 MB
Release : 2016
Category :
ISBN :
In the era of technology advancement and rapid globalization, the relationship between real exchange rate and economic growth has become one of the widely discussed topics in economics. The relationship helps in understanding the economic structure of a particular country and guides policy makers in economic decision making and assumption based planning. This paper not only empirically investigates the impact of the exchange rate, but also it examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the economic growth because country's growth is highly influenced by exchange rate volatility. In the study, after investigating the presence of unit root in the time series of GDP, inflation and real effective exchange rate, Engle-Granger cointegration approach is used to explore Turkey's economic growth and exchange rate volatility relationship, by using quarterly data for the period 1998:1-2014:4. The results provide evidence for the existence of both short and long-term relationship between economic growth and real effective exchange rate.
Author : Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 394 pages
File Size : 20,62 MB
Release : 2014-10-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 022612892X
"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.