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The Mathematics Of Natural Catastrophes

Author : Gordon Woo

Publisher : World Scientific

Page : 306 pages

File Size : 15,94 MB

Release : 1999-10-15

Category : Science

ISBN : 1783261978

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Book Description

This is a unique book about natural catastrophes, focusing on the mathematical aspects of these phenomena. Although academic in style and didactic in purpose, it is practical in the treatment of the diverse issues covered, which range from hazard warning and forecasting to engineering design criteria and insurance loss estimation. Addressing as it does many mathematical topics not found together in a single volume, the book should be of value to all those with a quantitative educational interest in or professional concern for natural catastrophes.



Calculating Catastrophe

Author : G. Woo

Publisher : World Scientific

Page : 368 pages

File Size : 40,60 MB

Release : 2011

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 1848167407

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Book Description

1. Natural hazards. 1.1. Causation and association. 1.2. Extra-terrestrial hazards. 1.3. Meteorological hazards. 1.4. Geological hazards. 1.5. Geomorphic hazards. 1.6. Hydrological hazards -- 2. Societal hazards. 2.1. Political violence. 2.2. Infectious disease pandemics. 2.3. Industrial and transportation accidents. 2.4. Fraud catastrophe -- 3. A sense of scale. 3.1. Size scales of natural hazards. 3.2. Hazard spatial scales. 3.3. The human disaster toll. 3.4. Models of a fractal world -- 4. A measure of uncertainty. 4.1. The concept of probability. 4.2. The meaning of uncertainty. 4.3. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. 4.4. Probability ambiguity. 4.5. The weighing of evidence -- 5. A matter of time. 5.1. Temporal models of hazards. 5.2. Long-term data records. 5.3. Statistics of extremes -- 6. Catastrophe complexity. 6.1. Emergent catastrophes. 6.2. Financial crashes. 6.3. Ancillary hazards -- 7. Terrorism. 7.1. A thinking man's game. 7.2. Defeating terrorist networks. 7.3. Counter-radicalization -- 8. Forecasting. 8.1. Earthquake forecasting. 8.2. Verification. 8.3. River flows and sea waves. 8.4. Accelerating approach to criticality. 8.5. Evidence-based diagnosis -- 9. Disaster warning. 9.1. Decision in the balance. 9.2. Evacuation. 9.3. The wisdom of experts -- 10. Disaster scenarios. 10.1. Scenario simulation. 10.2. Footprints and vulnerability. 10.3. Fermi problems -- 11. Catastrophe cover. 11.1. Probable maximum loss. 11.2. Coherent risk measures. 11.3. The Samaritan's dilemma -- 12. Catastrophe risk securitization. 12.1. Catastrophe bonds. 12.2. The price of innovation -- 13. Risk horizons. 13.1. Ecological catastrophe. 13.2. Climate change. 13.3. War and conflict resolution



Natural Hazards

Author : Edward A. Keller

Publisher : Routledge

Page : 575 pages

File Size : 45,49 MB

Release : 2016-07-07

Category : Nature

ISBN : 1315508680

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Book Description

Natural Hazards: Earth Processes as Hazards, Disasters and Catastrophes, Fourth Edition, is an introductory-level survey intended for university and college courses that are concerned with earth processes that have direct, and often sudden and violent, impacts on human society. The text integrates principles of geology, hydrology, meteorology, climatology, oceanography, soil science, ecology and solar system astronomy. The book is designed for a course in natural hazards for non-science majors, and a primary goal of the text is to assist instructors in guiding students who may have little background in science to understand physical earth processes as natural hazards and their consequences to society. Natural Hazards uses historical to recent examples of hazards and disasters to explore how and why they happen and what we can do to limit their effects. The text's up-to-date coverage of recent disasters brings a fresh perspective to the material. The Fourth Edition continues our new active learning approach that includes reinforcement of learning objective with a fully updated visual program and pedagogical tools that highlight fundamental concepts of the text. This program will provide an interactive and engaging learning experience for your students. Here's how: Provide a balanced approach to the study of natural hazards: Focus on the basic earth science of hazards as well as roles of human processes and effects on our planet in a broader, more balanced approach to the study of natural hazards. Enhance understanding and comprehension of natural hazards: Newly revised stories and case studies give students a behind the scenes glimpse into how hazards are evaluated from a scientific and human perspective; the stories of real people who survive natural hazards, and the lives and research of professionals who have contributed significantly to the research of hazardous events. Strong pedagogical tools reinforce the text's core features: Chapter structure and design organizes the material into three major sections to help students learn, digest, and review learning objectives.



Disaster by Choice

Author : Ilan Kelman

Publisher : Oxford University Press

Page : 180 pages

File Size : 41,8 MB

Release : 2020-02-27

Category : Science

ISBN : 0192578286

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Book Description

An earthquake shatters Haiti and a hurricane slices through Texas. We hear that nature runs rampant, seeking to destroy us through these 'natural disasters'. Science recounts a different story, however: disasters are not the consequence of natural causes; they are the consequence of human choices and decisions. we put ourselves in harm's way; we fail to take measures which we know would prevent disasters, no matter what the environment does. This can be both hard to accept, and hard to unravel. A complex of factors shape disasters. They arise from the political processes dictating where and what we build, and from social circumstances which create and perpetuate poverty and discrimination. They develop from the social preference to blame nature for the damage wrought, when in fact events such as earthquakes and storms are entirely commonplace environmental processes We feel the need to fight natural forces, to reclaim what we assume is ours, and to protect ourselves from what we perceive to be wrath from outside our communities. This attitude distracts us from the real causes of disasters: humanity's decisions, as societies and as individuals. It stops us accepting the real solutions to disasters: making better decisions. This book explores stories of some of our worst disasters to show how we can and should act to stop people dying when nature unleashes its energies. The disaster is not the tornado, the volcanic eruption, or climate change, but the deaths and injuries, the loss of irreplaceable property, and the lack and even denial of support to affected people, so that a short-term interruption becomes a long-term recovery nightmare. But we can combat this, as Kelman shows, describing inspiring examples of effective human action that limits damage, such as managing flooding in Toronto and villages in Bangladesh, or wildfire in Colorado. Throughout, his message is clear: there is no such thing as a natural disaster. The disaster lies in our inability to deal with the environment and with ourselves.



Megadisasters

Author : Florin Diacu

Publisher : Princeton University Press

Page : 214 pages

File Size : 49,24 MB

Release : 2010

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0691133506

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Book Description

The history and science behind efforts to predict major disasters, from tsunamis to stock market crashes Can we predict cataclysmic disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or stock market crashes? The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 claimed more than 200,000 lives. Hurricane Katrina killed over 1,800 people and devastated the city of New Orleans. The recent global financial crisis has cost corporations and ordinary people around the world billions of dollars. Megadisasters is a book that asks why catastrophes such as these catch us by surprise, and reveals the history and groundbreaking science behind efforts to forecast major disasters and minimize their destruction. Each chapter of this exciting and eye-opening book explores a particular type of cataclysmic event and the research surrounding it, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, rapid climate change, collisions with asteroids or comets, pandemics, and financial crashes. Florin Diacu tells the harrowing true stories of people impacted by these terrible events, and of the scientists racing against time to predict when the next big disaster will strike. He describes the mathematical models that are so critical to understanding the laws of nature and foretelling potentially lethal phenomena, the history of modeling and its prospects for success in the future, and the enormous challenges to scientific prediction posed by the chaos phenomenon, which is the high instability that underlies many processes around us. Yielding new insights into the perils that can touch every one of us, Megadisasters shows how the science of predicting disasters holds the promise of a safer and brighter tomorrow.



Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling

Author : Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace

Publisher : John Wiley & Sons

Page : 536 pages

File Size : 26,49 MB

Release : 2017-04-24

Category : Science

ISBN : 1118906063

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Book Description

This book covers both the practical and theoretical aspects of catastrophe modelling for insurance industry practitioners and public policymakers. Written by authors with both academic and industry experience it also functions as an excellent graduate-level text and overview of the field. Ours is a time of unprecedented levels of risk from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Fortunately, it is also an era of relatively inexpensive technologies for use in assessing those risks. The demand from both commercial and public interests—including (re)insurers, NGOs, global disaster management agencies, and local authorities—for sophisticated catastrophe risk assessment tools has never been greater, and contemporary catastrophe modelling satisfies that demand. Combining the latest research with detailed coverage of state-of-the-art catastrophe modelling techniques and technologies, this book delivers the knowledge needed to use, interpret, and build catastrophe models, and provides greater insight into catastrophe modelling’s enormous potential and possible limitations. The first book containing the detailed, practical knowledge needed to support practitioners as effective catastrophe risk modellers and managers Includes hazard, vulnerability and financial material to provide the only independent, comprehensive overview of the subject, accessible to students and practitioners alike Demonstrates the relevance of catastrophe models within a practical, decision-making framework and illustrates their many applications Includes contributions from many of the top names in the field, globally, from industry, academia, and government Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioner’s Guide is an important working resource for catastrophe modelling analysts and developers, actuaries, underwriters, and those working in compliance or regulatory functions related to catastrophe risk. It is also valuable for scientists and engineers seeking to gain greater insight into catastrophe risk management and its applications.



An Introduction to Catastrophe Theory

Author : Peter Timothy Saunders

Publisher : Cambridge University Press

Page : 162 pages

File Size : 50,91 MB

Release : 1980-06-30

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 9780521297820

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Book Description

An introduction to catastrophe theory, a mathematical theory which deals with those changes which occur abruptly rather than smoothly. Includes many applications to illustrate the different ways in which catastrophe can be used in life, physical and social sciences.



Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards

Author : Jonathan Rougier

Publisher : Cambridge University Press

Page : 587 pages

File Size : 22,90 MB

Release : 2013-02-21

Category : Nature

ISBN : 1107006198

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Book Description

A state-of-the-art overview of natural hazard risk assessment, for researchers and professionals in natural-hazard science, risk management and environmental science.



Statistical Analysis of Natural Disasters and Related Losses

Author : V.F. Pisarenko

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 89 pages

File Size : 43,1 MB

Release : 2013-09-11

Category : Nature

ISBN : 3319014544

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Book Description

The study of disaster statistics and disaster occurrence is a complicated interdisciplinary field involving the interplay of new theoretical findings from several scientific fields like mathematics, physics, and computer science. Statistical studies on the mode of occurrence of natural disasters largely rely on fundamental findings in the statistics of rare events, which were derived in the 20th century. With regard to natural disasters, it is not so much the fact that the importance of this problem for mankind was recognized during the last third of the 20th century - the myths one encounters in ancient civilizations show that the problem of disasters has always been recognized - rather, it is the fact that mankind now possesses the necessary theoretical and practical tools to effectively study natural disasters, which in turn supports effective, major practical measures to minimize their impact. All the above factors have resulted in considerable progress in natural disaster research. Substantial accrued material on natural disasters and the use of advanced recording techniques have opened new doors for empirical analysis. However, despite the considerable progress made, the situation is still far from ideal. Sufficiently complete catalogs of events are still not available for many types of disasters, and the methodological and even terminological bases of research need to be further developed and standardized. The present monograph summarizes recent advances in the field of disaster statistics, primarily focusing on the occurrence of disasters that can be described by distributions with heavy tails. These disasters typically occur on a very broad range of scales, the rare greatest events being capable of causing losses comparable to the total losses of all smaller disasters of the same type. Audience: This SpringerBrief will be a valuable resource for those working in the fields of natural disaster research, risk assessment and loss mitigation at regional and federal governing bodies and in the insurance business, as well as for a broad range of readers interested in problems concerning natural disasters and their effects on human life.



Advances in Natural Hazards and Volcanic Risks: Shaping a Sustainable Future

Author : Ana Malheiro

Publisher : Springer Nature

Page : 226 pages

File Size : 50,67 MB

Release : 2023-04-20

Category : Science

ISBN : 3031250427

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Book Description

This book comprises the selected proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on Natural Hazards (NATHAZ’22), Angra do Heroísmo, Terceira Island, Azores, 2022. The book interests all researchers and practitioners in Earth Sciences, Volcanic Risks, Natural Hazards, Geoethics, Environmental Sciences and Engineering. Terceira is a volcanic island with volcanic systems with caldera (Cinco Picos, Guilherme Moniz, Santa Bárbara and Pico Alto central volcanoes) and an active fissural zone defined by various alignments of small volcanic cones, lava domes and fault zones. The agricultural landscape, the natural and forest reserve, as well as the natural pools make the island a unique place to visit. The historic downtown of Angra do Heroísmo is a UNESCO world heritage, and several iconic buildings witness the island’s geodynamic history. Natural hazards result from a threat of a naturally occurring event that will have a negative effect on humans. That damaging effect is often called natural disasters. Among the natural hazards and potential disasters to be considered are: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, subsidence, floods, droughts and coastal erosion. In addition, anthropogenic hazards occur as a result of human interaction with the environment. They comprise technological risks due to exposure to hazardous substances in the environment. Natural systems in different frameworks require a comprehensive understanding of climatology, geology, hydrology and volcanic data, processes and dynamics. Thus, it is important to perform hazard and risk assessment studies to accomplish hazard mitigation. In addition, it highlighted the role of variability and climate change in Earth systems. Furthermore, an accurate understanding of the natural systems and interactions with engineering, geodiversity and natural resources is vital to the entire socioeconomic sector. This book is expected to offer an overview of natural hazards in model regions in Europe, America, Asia and the Atlantic islands. It gives new insights into the characterization, assessment, protection, and modelling of geological hazards, volcanic systems, urban areas, coastal zones and engineering approaches by international researchers and professionals. The scientific committee comprises lead geoscientists, natural hazards related practitioners, and academics worldwide. The main topics include: 1. Multi-hazards and risks: sustainable society, disasters and geoethics 2. Natural hazards and assessment: rock falls, landslides, urban planning and management 3. Sustainable Earth systems: hazards and climate change 4. Terceira Island geology and geodiversity: meeting volcanological hazards in the Azores