The Power of the Urn


Book Description

Alrak, a brutal barbarian king invades Catawissa. To satisfy his greed for power and wealth, he enslaves the people, confiscates their land and extracts high levies that drive them into poverty and despair. To ensure his control, the King's warlords are given positions of power over vast estates providing little opportunity for the people to rebel. Charles and Louise Tillsbury and their son Jonathan who were once prospers farmers have become serfs on their own land where they manage to eke out a living from what little the king does not take. But the King has ambitions to conquer new lands. To pay for the King's new levies, Jonathan is forced to travel to the city to find work as an apprentice. On his journey, Jonathan discovers an Urn that has evil as well as wonderful powers. It is the evil of the Urn that adds to the despair and captures Jonathan and separates him from his family and his childhood sweetheart, Elizabeth. But it is also the fortunes of the Urn that provide the creative opportunity that brings Jonathan and his family together again. Struggling for his freedom, it takes all of Jonathan's imagination and cunning to use the Urn to receive a gift that the Urn has no power to give. This gift not only changed the lives of Jonathan and his parents, but also that of the King and the people of Catawissa.







Bureau of Ships Journal


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Metaphysics


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Introduction to Statistical Inference


Book Description

This book is based upon lecture notes developed by Jack Kiefer for a course in statistical inference he taught at Cornell University. The notes were distributed to the class in lieu of a textbook, and the problems were used for homework assignments. Relying only on modest prerequisites of probability theory and cal culus, Kiefer's approach to a first course in statistics is to present the central ideas of the modem mathematical theory with a minimum of fuss and formality. He is able to do this by using a rich mixture of examples, pictures, and math ematical derivations to complement a clear and logical discussion of the important ideas in plain English. The straightforwardness of Kiefer's presentation is remarkable in view of the sophistication and depth of his examination of the major theme: How should an intelligent person formulate a statistical problem and choose a statistical procedure to apply to it? Kiefer's view, in the same spirit as Neyman and Wald, is that one should try to assess the consequences of a statistical choice in some quan titative (frequentist) formulation and ought to choose a course of action that is verifiably optimal (or nearly so) without regard to the perceived "attractiveness" of certain dogmas and methods.




On Leaving


Book Description

Arsić unpacks Ralph Waldo Emerson’s repeated assertion that our reality and our minds are in constant flux. Her readings of a broad range of Emerson’s writings are guided by a central question: what does it really mean to maintain that everything fluctuates, is relational, and so changes its identity?




Polya Urn Models


Book Description

Incorporating a collection of recent results, Polya Urn Models deals with discrete probability through the modern and evolving urn theory and its numerous applications. It looks at how some classical problems of discrete probability have roots in urn models. The book covers the Polya-Eggenberger, Bernard Friedman's, the Bagchi-Pal, and the Ehrenfest urns. It also explains the processes of poissonization and depoissonization and presents applications to random trees, evolution, competitive exclusion, epidemiology, clinical trials, and random circuits. The text includes end-of-chapter exercises that range from easy to challenging, along with solutions in the back of the book.




Tragic Props and Cognitive Function


Book Description

By applying aspects of cognitive psychology to a study of three key tragic props, this book examines the importance of visual imagery in ancient Greek tragedy. The shield, the urn and the mask are props which serve as controls for investigating the connection between visual imagery and the spectators' intellectual experience of tragic drama. As vehicles for conceptual change the props point to a function of imagery in problem solving. Connections between the visual and the cognitive in tragedy, particularly through image shape and its potential for various meanings, add a new perspective to scholarship on the role of the visual in ancient performance. These connections also add weight to the importance of imagery in contemporary problem solving and creative thought.