Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices


Book Description

"The current literature has provided a number of important insights about the effects of macroeconomic data releases on monetary policy expectations and asset prices. However, one puzzling aspect of that literature is that the estimated responses are quite small. Indeed, these studies typically find that the major economic releases, taken together, account for only a small amount of the variation in asset prices even those closely tied to near-term policy expectations. In this paper we argue that this apparent detachment arises in part from the difficulties associated with measuring macroeconomic news. We propose two new econometric approaches that allow us to account for the noise in measured data surprises. Using these estimators, we find that asset prices and monetary policy expectations are much more responsive to incoming news than previously believed. Our results also clarify the set of facts that should be captured by any model attempting to understand the interactions between economic data, monetary policy, and asset prices"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.







Applied Econometric Analysis: Emerging Research and Opportunities


Book Description

Professionals are constantly searching for competitive solutions to help determine current and future economic tendencies. Econometrics uses statistical methods and real-world data to predict and establish specific trends within business and finance. This analytical method sustains limitless potential, but the necessary research for professionals to understand and implement this approach is lacking. Applied Econometric Analysis: Emerging Research and Opportunities explores the theoretical and practical aspects of detailed econometric theories and applications within economics, political science, public policy, business, and finance. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as cointegration, machine learning, and time series analysis, this book is ideally designed for economists, policymakers, financial analysts, marketers, researchers, academicians, and graduate students seeking research on the various techniques of econometric concepts.




Market Microstructure in Emerging and Developed Markets


Book Description

A comprehensive guide to the dynamic area of finance known as market microstructure Interest in market microstructure has grown dramatically in recent years due largely in part to the rapid transformation of the financial market environment by technology, regulation, and globalization. Looking at market transactions at the most granular level—and taking into account market structure, price discovery, information flows, transaction costs, and the trading process—market microstructure also forms the basis of high-frequency trading strategies that can help professional investors generate profits and/or execute optimal transactions. Part of the Robert W. Kolb Series in Finance, Market Microstructure skillfully puts this discipline in perspective and examines how the working processes of markets impact transaction costs, prices, quotes, volume, and trading behavior. Along the way, it offers valuable insights on how specific features of the trading process like the existence of intermediaries or the environment in which trading takes place affect the price formation process. Explore issues including market structure and design, transaction costs, information flows, and disclosure Addresses market microstructure in emerging markets Covers the legal and regulatory issues impacting this area of finance Contains contributions from both experienced financial professionals and respected academics in this field If you're looking to gain a firm understanding of market microstructure, this book is the best place to start.




Discovering and Disentangling the Effects of US Macro-Announcements for European Stocks


Book Description

In this study, we analyze the effects of US macroeconomic announcements on European stock returns, return volatility and bid-ask spreads using intraday data. While an index-based analysis provides expected outcomes of differing importance of macro-economic announcements, we provide first evidence on stock-specific reactions. The study further contributes by disentangling stock-specific impacts from overall market reactions. A spread analysis reveals that return volatility affects the spread size positively, and that spreads are systematically higher directly after news releases. This is followed by structurally lower spreads, indicating quickly decreasing asymmetric information in the market after announcements. Additionally, spreads tend to react to announcements even if the returns or the volatility of the underlying stock is not significantly affected. This points at the importance of the analysis of news events beyond return and volatility analyses.




Essays on Asset Prices and Macroeconomic News Announcements


Book Description

My dissertation is composed of three chapters that are unified by their exploration of asset prices and macroeconomic news announcements. With respect to asset prices, my main focus is on the price discovery process: how do asset prices reveal information relevant for asset fundamentals? Through my research, I provide new answers to this question. My work gets at core issues in asset pricing: whether financial markets are informationally efficient; why some assets earn unconditionally high premia; and how the sensitivity of prices to information varies over time and across assets. Specifically, chapter one shows evidence that sophisticated traders with an informational advantage inefficiently impound their edge into the aggregate U.S. stock market and U.S. Treasury bonds. In chapter two, I explore a model in which investors are averse to ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) to explain why the equity premium is concentrated around specific events. Finally, chapter three investigates how the Federal Reserve's zero lower bound affects the response of asset prices, in particular interest rates, to information. Each of the three chapters explores the price discovery process using the unique setting of U.S. macroeconomic news announcements, which are made by government agencies and private-sector organizations and cover macroeconomic data on inflation, output, and unemployment. Analyzing financial markets in this setting deepens our understanding of how asset prices reflect information about macroeconomic fundamentals. At the same time, the results have macroeconomic implications; for example, the assumptions of monetary policy models in theory and the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in practice.




Elements of Time Series Econometrics: an Applied Approach


Book Description

This book presents the numerous tools for the econometric analysis of time series. The text is designed with emphasis on the practical application of theoretical tools. Accordingly, material is presented in a way that is easy to understand. In many cases intuitive explanation and understanding of the studied phenomena are offerd. Essential concepts are illustrated by clear-cut examples. The attention of readers is drawn to numerous applied works where the use of specific techniques is best illustrated. Such applications are chiefly connected with issues of recent economic transition and European integration. The outlined style of presentation makes the book also a rich source of references. The text is divided into five major sections. The first section, “The Nature of Time Series”, gives an introduction to time series analysis. The second section, “Difference Equations”, describes briefly the theory of difference equations with an emphasis on results that are important for time series econometrics. The third section, “Univariate Time Series”, presents the methods commonly used in univariate time series analysis, the analysis of time series of one single variable. The fourth section, “Multiple Time Series”, deals with time series models of multiple interrelated variables. The fifth section “Panel Data and Unit Root Tests”, deals with methods known as panel unit root tests that are relevant to issues of convergence. Appendices contain an introduction to simulation techniques and statistical tables. Kniha přináší soubor základních i pokročilých technik a postupů používaných v ekonometrické analýze časových řad. Kniha klade důraz na umožnění efektivního použití popsaných technik v aplikovaném ekonomickém výzkumu. Toho je dosaženo tím, že teoretické základy popsané ekonometrie jsou prezentovány spolu s intuitivním vysvětlením problematiky a jednotlivé techniky jsou ilustrovány na výsledcích současného výzkumu a to především v kontextu procesu nedávné ekonomické transformace a současné evropské integrace. Toto pojetí z knihy činí nejen učebnici v klasickém smyslu, ale také užitečný referenční zdroj neboť odkazy v knize spojují klasickou i moderní ekonometrickou literaturu se soudobými aplikacemi, na nichž je použití jednotlivých technik jasně pochopitelné. Mnohá použití vycházejí z bohaté předchozí práce autorů v oboru. Text knihy je rozdělen do pěti hlavních částí. První část, “The Nature of Time Series”, přináší úvod do analýzy časových řad a popis jejich nejdůležitějších charakteristik, vlastností a procesů. Druhá část, “Difference Equations”, stručně popisuje teorii diferenciálních rovnic s důrazem na aspekty, které jsou klíčové v ekonometrii časových řad. Třetí část, “Univariate Time Series”, poměrně rozsáhle popisuje techniky, které se používají při analýze jednotlivých časových řad bez jejich vzájemené interakce a zahrnuje jak lineární tak nelineární modelované struktury. Čtvrtá část, “Multiple Time Series”, popisuje modely které umožňují analýzu několika časových řad a jejich vzájemných interakcí. Pátá část “Panel Data and Unit Root Tests”, zahrnuje některé techniky postavené na panelových datech, jež k průřezovým datům přidávají časovou dimenzi a vztahují se k analýze konvergence. Závěr knihy je doplněn o úvod do simulační techniky a statistické tabulky




Understanding the Polish Capital Market


Book Description

The first stock exchange in Warsaw – capital city of the Kingdom of Poland– was established in 1817. Over the past 205 years, the fortunes of the capital market have been closely linked to the "bumpy road" of Polish history. The establishment of the GPW Warsaw Stock Exchange in 1991 was a landmark for transformation from a centrally planned communist economy to a market-driven capitalist one. Since the doors of the exchange reopened, Polish GDP per capita (current USD) increased eight times, translating into an average yearly growth rate of over 7%. The capital market has played a pivotal role in the economic success of Poland over the last three decades. It is not easy to precisely quantify the impact, as it was rather a spill-over effect. Economic growth has fostered the development of a capital market, and more efficient conversion of savings to investments via the capital market. The excellence of capital market institutions can be gauged with reference to various parameters. A synthetic measure is so-called market status. According to FTSE Russell (global index provider), Polish capital attained developed market status in 2018, being the first and only post-communist state to do so. It is fair to say that transformation has been completed and developed market status indicates clearly that the institutions and regulations are world class. The current challenge is competing with other developed markets for the best issuers and offering the most demanding investors an excellent trading experience. This book offers scientific insight into the Polish capital market story. Authored by a group of renowned scholars, with contributions aspiring to the highest academic standards for theoretical considerations and empirical research. The book covers various topics, including links between monetary policy and capital markets, micro and macro market structures, and investors and issuers' behaviour and strategies. All chapters are rooted in contemporary finance theory, supported by various econometric models based on the most recently available data. The book aims to provide academics and practitioners insight into the Polish capital market, appealing especially to those interested in gaining a deeper understanding of emerging markets' successful transformation into developed ones. It can also be used as supplementary reading for doctoral and master’s students in finance, particularly relating to capital markets and economics – predominantly development economics and economic policy.




Research Anthology on Macroeconomics and the Achievement of Global Stability


Book Description

The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked economies around the world and created an era of global instability. As the pandemic comes to a close, it is essential to examine global economies in order to achieve and maintain global stability. By maintaining global stability, the world may be prepared for future economic shocks. The Research Anthology on Macroeconomics and the Achievement of Global Stability discusses the emerging opportunities, challenges, and strategies within the field of macroeconomics. It features advancements in the field that encourage global economic stability. Covering topics such as Islamic banking, international trade, and Econophysics, this major reference work is an ideal resource for economists, government leaders and officials, business leaders and executives, finance professionals, students and educators of higher education, librarians, researchers, and academicians.