The Report: Nigeria 2013


Book Description

As the single most populous nation in Africa, Nigeria recently overtook South Africa as the largest economy on the continent. Natural resources, oil and gas in particular, comprise the country’s single largest revenue-earner but the 170m person economy also has seen significant activity in recent years into the industrial, financial, telecoms and – as of 2013 – power sectors. Hydrocarbons reserves have traditionally attracted the vast majority of domestic and foreign investment in Nigeria. Oil production capacity has remained at roughly 2.5m barrels per day (bpd) since the start of 2000, although output fell to 2.2m bpd on average in 2012. Still, the country has long operated below its true potential and government efforts in recent years have sought to increase local value addition, by boosting refining capacity and minimising theft and bunkering. The country’s banking sector has been through a significant shake-up as well, resulting in a far healthier and more robust financial industry, while reforms in the telecoms and agricultural sectors have strengthened medium-term prospects.




Nigeria


Book Description

Nigeria, the United States’ most important strategic partner in West Africa, is in grave trouble. While Nigerians often claim they are masters of dancing on the brink without falling off, the disastrous administration of President Goodluck Jonathan, the radical Islamic insurrection Boko Haram, and escalating violence in the delta and the north may finally provide the impetus that pushes it into the abyss of state failure. In this thoroughly updated edition, John Campbellexplores Nigeria’s post-colonial history and presents a nuanced explanation of the events and conditions that have carried this complex, dynamic, and very troubled giant to the edge. Central to his analysis are the oil wealth, endemic corruption, and elite competition that have undermined Nigeria’s nascent democratic institutions and alienated an increasingly impoverished population. However, state failure is not inevitable, nor is it in the interest of the United States. Campbell provides concrete new policy options that would not only allow the United States to help Nigeria avoid state failure but also to play a positive role in Nigeria’s political, social, and economic development.




Nigeria


Book Description

This Financial Sector Stability Assessment on Nigeria discusses the macroeconomic performance and structure of the financial system. Although Nigerian economy experienced both domestic and external shocks in recent years, the economy continued to grow rapidly, achieving more than 7 percent growth each year since 2009. The performance of financial institutions has begun to improve, though some of the emergency anti-crisis measures continue to be in place. However, the regulatory and supervisory framework has gaps and weaknesses. In sum, the Nigerian economy has emerged from the banking crisis, and has the potential to enjoy an extended period of strong economic growth.




Nigeria


Book Description

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights Nigeria’s poverty and income inequality that remain high and social and governance indicators that are below averages for sub-Saharan Africa. Growth is expected to remain strong, driven by agriculture, trade, and services. Inflation should continue to decline, in line with a tight monetary policy, and a lowering trend in food prices from higher rice and wheat production. Transparency and governance in the oil sector should be enhanced, including by strengthening the regulatory framework through the passage of a sound Petroleum Industry Bill featuring stringent enforcement clauses.




Reforming the Unreformable


Book Description

A report on development economics in action, by a crucial player in Nigeria's recent reforms. Corrupt, mismanaged, and seemingly hopeless: that's how the international community viewed Nigeria in the early 2000s. Then Nigeria implemented a sweeping set of economic and political changes and began to reform the unreformable. This book tells the story of how a dedicated and politically committed team of reformers set out to fix a series of broken institutions, and in the process repositioned Nigeria's economy in ways that helped create a more diversified springboard for steadier long-term growth. The author, Harvard- and MIT-trained economist Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, currently Nigeria's Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance and formerly Managing Director of the World Bank, played a crucial part in her country's economic reforms. In Nigeria's Debt Management Office, and later as Minister of Finance, she spearheaded negotiations with the Paris Club that led to the wiping out of $30 billion of Nigeria's external debt, 60 percent of which was outright cancellation. Reforming the Unreformable offers an insider's view of those debt negotiations; it also details the fight against corruption and the struggle to implement a series of macroeconomic and structural reforms. This story of development economics in action, written from the front lines of economic reform in Africa, offers a unique perspective on the complex and uncertain global economic environment.







Nigeria


Book Description

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights Nigeria’s poverty and income inequality that remain high and social and governance indicators that are below averages for sub-Saharan Africa. Growth is expected to remain strong, driven by agriculture, trade, and services. Inflation should continue to decline, in line with a tight monetary policy, and a lowering trend in food prices from higher rice and wheat production. Transparency and governance in the oil sector should be enhanced, including by strengthening the regulatory framework through the passage of a sound Petroleum Industry Bill featuring stringent enforcement clauses.




Understanding Boko Haram


Book Description

The primary objective of this book is to understand the nature of the Boko Haram insurgency in northeast Nigeria. Boko Haram’s goal of an Islamic Caliphate, starting in the Borno State in the North East that will eventually cover the areas of the former Kanem-Borno Empire, is a rejection of the modern state system forced on it by the West. The central theme of this volume examines the relationship between the failure of the state-building project in Nigeria and the outbreak and nature of insurgency. At the heart of the Boko Haram phenomenon is a country racked with cleavages, making it hard for Nigeria to cohere as a modern state. Part I introduces this theme and places the Boko Haram insurgency in a historical context. There are, however, multiple cleavages in Nigeria ̶ ethnic, regional, cultural, and religious ̶ and Part II examines the different state-society dynamics fuelling the conflict. Political grievances are common to every society; however, what gives Boko Haram the space to express such grievances through violence? Importantly, this volume demonstrates that the insurgency is, in fact, a reflection of the hollowness within Nigeria’s overall security. Part III looks at the responses to Boko Haram by Nigeria, neighbouring states, and external actors. For Western actors, Boko Haram is seen as part of the "global war on terror" and the fact that it has pledged allegiance to ISIS encourages this framing. However, as the chapters here discuss, this is an over-simplification of Boko Haram and the West needs to address the multiple dimension of Boko Haram. This book will be of much interest to students of terrorism and political violence, insurgencies, African politics, war and conflict studies, and IR in general.




State Fragility, State Formation, and Human Security in Nigeria


Book Description

Since the 1990s, attempts at democratic transition have generated hopes for 'civil society' as well as ambivalence about the state. The interdisciplinary studies gathered here explore this dynamic through the complex interactions of state fragility, self-help, and self-organization in Nigeria. Nigeria stands as a particularly interesting case, as its multifaceted associational life extends far beyond civil society organizations (CSOs) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs): as this volume reveals, there is a 'third sector' of Nigerian society encompassing everything from community self-help programs to ethno-religious affiliations to militias. Some of these formations have narrow, pragmatic aims, while others have an explicit socio-cultural or political agenda; most can be understood as compensating for the state's failure to deliver services and maintain regulatory frameworks. By examining the emergence of broader forms of civil society, this volume considers their successes while also assessing their costs and contradictions.




Addressing the Natural Resource Curse


Book Description

Some natural resources-oil and minerals in particular-exert a negative and nonlinear impact on growth via their deleterious impact on institutional quality. We show this result to be very robust. The Nigerian experience provides telling confirmation of this aspect of natural resources. Waste and poor institutional quality stemming from oil appear to have been primarily responsible for Nigeria''s poor long-run economic performance. We propose a solution for addressing this resource curse which involves directly distributing the oil revenues to the public. Even with all the difficulties that will no doubt plague its actual implementation, our proposal will, at the least, be vastly superior to the status quo. At best, however, it could fundamentally improve the quality of public institutions and, as a result, durably raise long-run growth performance.