Understanding and Calculating the Odds


Book Description

This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)




Head First Statistics


Book Description

A comprehensive introduction to statistics that teaches the fundamentals with real-life scenarios, and covers histograms, quartiles, probability, Bayes' theorem, predictions, approximations, random samples, and related topics.




Knowing the Odds


Book Description

John Walsh, one of the great masters of the subject, has written a superb book on probability. It covers at a leisurely pace all the important topics that students need to know, and provides excellent examples. I regret his book was not available when I taught such a course myself, a few years ago. —Ioannis Karatzas, Columbia University In this wonderful book, John Walsh presents a panoramic view of Probability Theory, starting from basic facts on mean, median and mode, continuing with an excellent account of Markov chains and martingales, and culminating with Brownian motion. Throughout, the author's personal style is apparent; he manages to combine rigor with an emphasis on the key ideas so the reader never loses sight of the forest by being surrounded by too many trees. As noted in the preface, “To teach a course with pleasure, one should learn at the same time.” Indeed, almost all instructors will learn something new from the book (e.g. the potential-theoretic proof of Skorokhod embedding) and at the same time, it is attractive and approachable for students. —Yuval Peres, Microsoft With many examples in each section that enhance the presentation, this book is a welcome addition to the collection of books that serve the needs of advanced undergraduate as well as first year graduate students. The pace is leisurely which makes it more attractive as a text. —Srinivasa Varadhan, Courant Institute, New York This book covers in a leisurely manner all the standard material that one would want in a full year probability course with a slant towards applications in financial analysis at the graduate or senior undergraduate honors level. It contains a fair amount of measure theory and real analysis built in but it introduces sigma-fields, measure theory, and expectation in an especially elementary and intuitive way. A large variety of examples and exercises in each chapter enrich the presentation in the text.




The Doctrine of Chances


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The Doctrine of Chances


Book Description




Introduction to Probability


Book Description

This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.




Understanding Probability


Book Description

Like it or not, chance plays a big part in our lives. Every day we face situations where the result is uncertain, and, perhaps without realizing it, we guess about the likelihood of one outcome or another. Fortunately, mastering the concepts of probability can cast new light on situations where randomness and chance appear to rule. In this book, which uses lotteries and casino games to provide the many illustrative examples, the reader can learn about the world of probability. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. Written with wit and clarity, this book can be read easily by anyone who is not put off by a few numbers and some high-school algebra. It is also ideally suited to students of all disciplines taking their first course in probability.




The Logic Of Sports Betting


Book Description

How do sportsbooks make their lines? Which types of bets are the best? Can you beat the house? The Logic Of Sports Betting answers all these questions and more with a dash of humor and a whole lot of real talk about how it all works. Peek behind the counter and learn how sportsbooks operate. Combine that insider knowledge with why-didn't-I-think-of-that sports betting logic, and you have the winning formula. Ed Miller is a best-selling (over 300,000 copies sold) author of books on poker and gambling. This is his first book on sports betting, but maybe his favorite book to write so far. Matthew Davidow is a sports modeler, using proprietary methods to beat major sports betting markets for over 15 years, and co-founding two leading private sports analytics firms along the way. What people are saying about The Logic Of Sports Betting "Matt and Ed are two of the smartest minds in sports betting." - Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor "As a sportsbook employee for 30-plus years, I find it difficult to read or watch anything about sports betting. But I could not put The Logic Of Sports Betting down. It's that good." - Robert Walker, Las Vegas bookmaker




The Probability of God


Book Description

Does God exist? This is probably the most debated question in the history of mankind. Scholars, scientists, and philosophers have spent their lifetimes trying to prove or disprove the existence of God, only to have their theories crucified by other scholars, scientists, and philosophers. Where the debate breaks down is in the ambiguities and colloquialisms of language. But, by using a universal, unambiguous language—namely, mathematics—can this question finally be answered definitively? That’s what Dr. Stephen Unwin attempts to do in this riveting, accessible, and witty book, The Probability of God. At its core, this groundbreaking book reveals how a math equation developed more than 200 years ago by noted European philosopher Thomas Bayes can be used to calculate the probability that God exists. The equation itself is much more complicated than a simple coin toss (heads, He’s up there running the show; tails, He’s not). Yet Dr. Unwin writes with a clarity that makes his mathematical proof easy for even the nonmathematician to understand and a verve that makes his book a delight to read. Leading you carefully through each step in his argument, he demonstrates in the end that God does indeed exist. Whether you’re a devout believer and agree with Dr. Unwin’s proof or are unsure about all things divine, you will find this provocative book enlightening and engaging. “One of the most innovative works [in the science and religion movement] is The Probability of God...An entertaining exercise in thinking.”—Michael Shermer, Scientific American “Unwin’s book [is] peppered with wry, self-deprecating humor that makes the scientific discussions more accessible...Spiritually inspiring.”--Chicago Sun Times “A pleasantly breezy account of some complicated matters well worth learning about.”--Philadelphia Inquirer “One of the best things about the book is its humor.”--Cleveland Plain Dealer “In a book that is surprisingly lighthearted and funny, Unwin manages to pack in a lot of facts about science and philosophy.”--Salt Lake Tribune




POKER MATH


Book Description

Poker is a card game that requires skill and strategy, and people have been playing it for hundreds of years. The application of mathematics is one of the most important aspects of winning at poker. It can make a major difference in a player's success at poker to have a firm grasp on the mathematical fundamentals of the game and the ability to put those fundamentals into practice in the midst of competition. In this section, we will discuss the significance of poker math in the game of poker and explore the various ways in which a strong understanding of the mathematical principles that underlie poker math can lead to improved decision-making and, ultimately, a greater number of wins. The term "poker math" refers to the application of several mathematical ideas and the theory of probability in order to make educated decisions while playing the game. Understanding the probabilities of winning a hand, calculating the odds of winning the pot, and calculating the expected value of a given move are the fundamentals of poker math. Players who are serious about taking their poker skills to the next level absolutely need to understand these ideas. Mastering the mathematical aspects of poker also enables players to boost their earnings, which is another significant advantage. Players are able to make more educated choices regarding when to bet, fold, or raise depending on the information they get from their knowledge of the probabilities of winning a hand. Players can boost their odds of winning more hands and, eventually, more money if they make these decisions with a thorough understanding of the underlying mathematical principles. A player who is proficient in poker math can also reduce the amount of money they lose to the game. Players are able to assess whether or not it is worthwhile to put additional money into a hand by estimating the odds of the pot. Players have the option to fold and reduce their losses if the odds of winning the pot are unfavorable to them. Poker players can avoid making costly mistakes that can have negative effects on their bankroll if they base their judgments on their knowledge of poker math and make those decisions consistently.