An Analysis of Price Volatility, Trading Volume and Market Depth of Stock Futures Market in India


Book Description

Project Report from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, , course: Ph. D, language: English, abstract: Every modern economy is based on a sound financial system and acts as a monetary channel for productive purpose with effecting economic growth. It encourages saving habit by throwing open and plethora of instrument avenues suiting to the individuals requirements, mobilizing savings from households and other segments and allocating savings into productive usage such as trade, commerce, manufacture etc. Thus a financial system can also be understood as institutional arrangements, through which financial surpluses are mobilized from the units generating surplus income and transferring them to the others in need of them. In nutshell, financial market, financial assets, financial services and financial institutions constitute the financial system. The activities include exchange and holding of financial assets or instruments of different kinds of financial institutions, banks and other intermediaries of the market. Financial markets provide channels for allocation of savings to investment and provide variety of assets to savers in various forms in which the investors can park their funds. At the same time, financial market is one that integral part of the financial system which makes significant contribution to the countries’ economic development. It establishes a link between the demand and supply of long-term capital funds. The economic strength of a country depends squarely on the state of financial market, apart from the productive potential of the country. The efficient allocation of fund by the capital market depends on the state of capital market. All the countries therefore focus more on the functioning of the capital market. Indian financial market has faced many challenges in the process of effecting more efficient allocation and mobilization of capital. It has attained a remarkable degree of growth in the last decade and in continuing to achieve the same in current decade also. Opening up of the economy and adoption of the liberalized economic policies have driven our economy more towards the free market. Over the last few years, financial markets, more specifically the security market were experiencing a lot of structural and regulatory changes. The major constituents of financial market are money market and the capital market catering to the type of capital requirements.




The Impact of Derivatives on Stock Market Volatility


Book Description

One of the most important issues that have engaged the financial managers and the academicians in Finance all over the world is the financial markets volatility and the need to forecast it accurately. The stock prices depend on the investment behavior which, in turn, is affected by the efficiency of volatility forecasting. The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility in the Indian stock market after the introduction of futures contracts on the SENSEX index. To explore the time series properties Unit Root Test and ARCH LM test have been employed. GARCH (1, 1) model have been applied to study the impact on underlying volatility, for this sample period of 26 years has been taken. The results of this study indicate that the introduction of futures leads to a significant change in the spot market volatility of the SENSEX index and it is successful in reducing the volatility.




STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY AND FORECASTING USING ARIMA MODEL WITH REFERENCE TO SELECTED STOCKS IN NSE, INDIA


Book Description

The share markets in India have created a lure for investing money by the investors. The strategy for earning big money in short time needs a lot of patience. There is no fixed formula for success in the market. The early stage of the share market was very familiar for average investor. Now the markets are wide enough to invest. There are different markets like bond market, forex market, derivative market and other specialty markets.




Effect of Futures Trading on Spot Market Volatility


Book Description

This study investigates the relationship between futures trading activity and spot market volatility for agricultural, metal, precious metals and energy commodities in Indian commodity derivatives market. This article contributes to the debate whether the futures trading in Indian commodity futures market stabilizes or destabilizes spot market. We explore this issue by modeling contemporaneous as well as dynamic relationship between spot volatility and futures trading activity including trading volume (speculative/day trading) and open interest (hedging). Following Bessembinder and Senguin (1992), we examine contemporaneous relationship through augmented GARCH model in which spot volatility is modeled as GARCH (1,1) process and trading activity is used as explanatory variable. We also decompose futures trading volume and open interest series into expected and unexpected component. The lead-lag relationship between spot price volatility and futures trading volume and open interest is investigated through VAR model. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function are used to understand the dynamic relationship between these variables. We found that both expected and unexpected futures trading volume affects contemporaneous spot volatility positively. However, in case of agricultural commodities only unexpected volume affects the contemporaneous spot volatility. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function confirm that the lagged unexpected volatility causes spot price volatility for all commodities. The effect of speculative/day trading activity measured by trading volume on spot market volatility is positive. However, hedging activity measured by open interest does not show significant effect on spot market volatility. We do not find any effect of spot volatility on futures trading activity for most of the commodities.




Futures Trading and Spot Market Volatility in India


Book Description

Derivatives in the securities markets were launched mainly with the twofold objective of risk transfer and to enhance liquidity in the underlying cash market and thereby ensuring better market efficiency. In the late 1990s, various derivative instruments were introduced in the equity segment of major markets worldwide. It further complicated the volatility behavior of these markets as derivatives opened new avenues for hedging and speculation. Since futures trading encourage speculation, the debate on the impact of speculators on the cash market volatility intensified with the introduction of futures trading. This constitutes the main research problem of this study and the objectives have been set out in accordance to this phenomenon of the derivatives market. The current research work examines the effect of the introduction of futures trading on the volatility of the underlying cash market in India. The standard univariate GARCH model has been used to capture the time-varying nature of volatility and volatility clustering phenomenon in the data. This research study adds a new dimension to the existing literature on futures trading and will be useful to all the market participants.




Option-Implied Volatility as a Predictor of Realized Volatility in Derivative Markets


Book Description

The following study aims to examine the success of using option-implied volatility to forecast realized volatility in derivative markets as the preferred market practice. The approach adopted by this study was to compare realized volatility against the monthly average forecast over the period 2005 to 2010. The data selection spanned across currency and commodities markets: short and long-term horizons: before and after the global financial crisis: as well as developed and developing (emerging) markets. To test the success of the forecasting technique, the study used the T-test to test the sample means for any statistical differences between the means of the forecast variable (optionimplied volatility) and the realized variable. The data for the study was obtained from BloombergTM. The findings across all research question showed that this forecasting technique has performed poorly in general for various reasons. There are different arguments in literature as to which forecasting method works best and under what conditions, some practitioners prefer using historical data methods others prefer more technical methods such as the GARCH 1.1. The use of financial derivatives to mitigate financial risk has become a common practice for organizations with a global presence: however market volatility poses a great risk to the financial stability of these organizations. Forecasting volatility continues to be a challenge for market practitioners.




Forecasting Financial Markets in India


Book Description

Papers presented at the Forecasting Financial Markets in India, held at Kharagpur during 29-31 December 2008.




Derivatives and Asymmetric Response of Volatility to News in Indian Stock Market


Book Description

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of the introduction of stock index futures on the volatility of the spot equity market and to test the impact of the introduction of the stock index futures contracts, a GARCH model is modified along the lines of GJR-GARCH and EGARCH model, especially to take into account the link between information and volatility. This paper provides the evidence that there is not much change in the volatility pattern after the introduction of futures in the Indian stock market. The impacts of futures trading for the post futures period can be captured by the asymmetric coefficient (gamma), suggest that there is a statistically significant and positive asymmetric effect. Thus the introduction of futures trading has impact on the asymmetric coefficient. It shows the similar pattern for the pre and post futures period. Empirical research can be further expanded by selecting and analyzing high frequency intraday data and the inclusion of additional economic variables in the conditional variance equation.




Indian Stock Market Volatility


Book Description

Volatility in Capital Markets has been an important issue since the development of capital markets across globe, however with the pioneering models by Robert Engle and Bollerslev, the study of stock market volatility has bought new dimensions in the financial literature. This book also emphasizes the study of volatility in Indian Capital Market after the introduction of financial derivatives in comparison to the pre-derivative period. The very purpose of introduction of financial derivatives in Indian Capital Market is to stabilize the price fluctuations. However, it's always been debated concerning the introduction of derivative instruments and their effectiveness in curbing the volatility and through this book a small attempt is being made to emphasize the issue. The book may help Investors, Portfolio Managers, Professional Money Managers, Researchers, Academicians and Policy Makers in understanding the extent to which financial derivative has stabilize the volatility in Indian Stock Market.