Weight of Evidence


Book Description

In 1794 and 1799 Superintendent of Convicts Nicholas Devine was granted 210 acres on the edge of the current CBD of Sydney. After the demise of Governor Bligh (to whom he was closely allied) Devine reluctantly retired to his estate where, as an old man living alone, he was constantly beaten and robbed. An Irish convict named Bernard Rochford befriended the old man in 1825 and upon his death in 1830 forged a Will and seized control of the estate and proceeded to subdivide it and sell it off. Many of the purchasers (and others, including the Governor) knew Rochford was in no position to sell the land as even if the will he had was authentic, he was a nonetheless a convict and therefore was prohibited from holding property, let alone profit from its sale. Rochford sold much of the land in exchange for grog and was continually in court over a variety of issues. As devious as Rochford was, he proved no match for his wife whose deceit landed him in jail where he died in 1839. The 30 new landowners included judges, mayors, magistrates, aldermen, newspaper editors, solicitors and other Sydney luminaries. They believed that with Rochford’s death all suspicions regarding their ownership of the land would also die but that was not to be. In 1848 Nicholas Devine’s heir John Devine arrived to lay claim to the entire estate.




Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles


Book Description

DNA evidence is widely used in the modern justice system. Statistical methodology plays a key role in ensuring that this evidence is collected, interpreted, analysed and presented correctly. This book is a guide to assessing DNA evidence and presenting that evidence in a courtroom setting. It offers practical guidance to forensic scientists with little dependence on mathematical ability, and provides the scientist with the understanding they require to apply the methods in their work. Since the publication of the first edition of this book in 2005 there have been many incremental changes, and one dramatic change which is the emergence of low template DNA (LTDNA) profiles. This second edition is edited and expanded to cover the basics of LTDNA technology. The author's own open-source R code likeLTD is described and used for worked examples in the book. Commercial and free software are also covered.




Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles


Book Description

DNA evidence is widely used in the modern justice system. Statistical methodology plays a key role in ensuring that this evidence is collected, interpreted, analysed and presented correctly. This book is a guide to assessing DNA evidence and presenting that evidence in a courtroom setting. It offers practical guidance to forensic scientists with little dependence on mathematical ability, and provides the scientist with the understanding they require to apply the methods in their work. Since the publication of the first edition of this book in 2005 there have been many incremental changes, and one dramatic change which is the emergence of low template DNA (LTDNA) profiles. This second edition is edited and expanded to cover the basics of LTDNA technology. The author's own open-source R code likeLTD is described and used for worked examples in the book. Commercial and free software are also covered.




Marine Ecotoxicology


Book Description

Marine Ecotoxicology: Current Knowledge and Future Issues is the first unified resource to cover issues related to contamination, responses, and testing techniques of saltwater from a toxicological perspective. With its unprecedented focus on marine environments and logical chapter progression, this book is useful to graduate students, ecotoxicologists, risk assessors, and regulators involved or interested in marine waters. As human interaction with these environments increases, understanding of the pollutants and toxins introduced into the oceans becomes ever more critical, and this book builds a foundation of knowledge to assist scientists in studying, monitoring, and making decisions that affect both marine environments and human health. A team of world renowned experts provide detailed analyses of the most common contaminants in marine environments and explain the design and purpose of toxicity testing methods, while exploring the future of ecotoxicology studies in relation to the world’s oceans. As the threat of increasing pollution in marine environments becomes an ever more tangible reality, Marine Ecotoxicology offers insights and guidance to mitigate that threat. Provides practical tools and methods for assessing and monitoring the accumulation and effects of contaminants in marine environments Unites world renowned experts in marine ecotoxicology to deliver thorough and diverse perspectives Builds the foundation required for risk assessors and regulators to adequately assess and monitor the impact of pollution in marine environments Offers helpful insights and guidance to graduate students, ecotoxicologists, risk assessors, and regulators interested in mitigating threats to marine waters




The Weight Of The Evidence


Book Description

Meteorites fall from the sky but seldom onto the heads of science dons in redbrick universities; Inspector Appleby soon discovers that the meteorite was not fresh and that the professor's deckchair had been placed underneath a large, accessible tower ?







The Burdens of Proof


Book Description

Adjudicative tribunals in both criminal and non-criminal cases rely on the concept of the 'burden of proof' to resolve uncertainty about facts. Perhaps surprisingly, this concept remains clouded and deeply controversial. Written by an internationally renowned scholar, this book explores contemporary thinking on the evidential requirements that are critical for all practical decision-making, including adjudication. Although the idea that evidence must favor one side over the other to a specified degree, such as 'beyond reasonable doubt', is familiar, less well-understood is an idea associated with the work of John Maynard Keynes, namely that there are requirements on the total amount of evidence considered to decide the case. The author expertly explores this distinct Keynesian concept and its implications. Hypothetical examples and litigated cases are included to assist understanding of the ideas developed. Implications include an expanded conception of the burden of producing evidence and how it should be administered.




A Mathematical Theory of Evidence


Book Description

Both in science and in practical affairs we reason by combining facts only inconclusively supported by evidence. Building on an abstract understanding of this process of combination, this book constructs a new theory of epistemic probability. The theory draws on the work of A. P. Dempster but diverges from Depster's viewpoint by identifying his "lower probabilities" as epistemic probabilities and taking his rule for combining "upper and lower probabilities" as fundamental. The book opens with a critique of the well-known Bayesian theory of epistemic probability. It then proceeds to develop an alternative to the additive set functions and the rule of conditioning of the Bayesian theory: set functions that need only be what Choquet called "monotone of order of infinity." and Dempster's rule for combining such set functions. This rule, together with the idea of "weights of evidence," leads to both an extensive new theory and a better understanding of the Bayesian theory. The book concludes with a brief treatment of statistical inference and a discussion of the limitations of epistemic probability. Appendices contain mathematical proofs, which are relatively elementary and seldom depend on mathematics more advanced that the binomial theorem.




Evidence-Based Policy


Book Description

In this important new book, Ray Pawson examines the recent spread of evidence-based policy making across the Western world. Few major public initiatives are mounted these days in the absence of a sustained attempt to evaluate them. Programmes are tried, tried and tried again and researched, researched and researched again. And yet it is often difficult to know which interventions, and which inquiries, will withstand the test of time. The evident solution, going by the name of evidence-based policy, is to take the longer view. Rather than relying on one-off studies, it is wiser to look to the ′weight of evidence′. Accordingly, it is now widely agreed the most useful data to support policy decisions will be culled from systematic reviews of all the existing research in particular policy domains. This is the consensual starting point for Ray Pawson′s latest foray into the world of evaluative research. But this is social science after all and harmony prevails only in the first chapter. Thereafter, Pawson presents a devastating critique of the dominant approach to systematic review - namely the ′meta-analytic′ approach as sponsored by the Cochrane and Campbell collaborations. In its place is commended an approach that he terms ′realist synthesis′. On this vision, the real purpose of systematic review is better to understand programme theory, so that policies can be properly targeted and developed to counter an ever-changing landscape of social problems. The book will be essential reading for all those who loved (or loathed) the arguments developed in Realistic Evaluation (Sage, 1997). It offers a complete blueprint for research synthesis, supported by detailed illustrations and worked examples from across the policy waterfront. It will be of especial interest to policy-makers, practitioners, researchers and students working in health, education, employment, social care, criminal justice, regeneration and welfare.




Evidence and Hypothesis in Clinical Medical Science


Book Description

In this book, the author argues that no current philosophical theory of evidence in clinical medical science is adequate. None can accurately explain the way evidence is gathered and used to confirm hypotheses. To correct this, he proposes a new approach called the weight of evidence account. This innovative method supplies a satisfactory explanation and rationale for the “hierarchical pyramid” of evidence–based medicine, with randomized clinical trials and their derivatives, meta-analyses, and systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials at the top and case reports, case series, expert opinion, and the like at the bottom. The author illustrates the development of various “levels” of evidence by considering the evolution of less invasive surgical treatments for early breast cancer. He shows that the weight of evidence account explains the notion of levels of evidence and other efforts to rank them. In addition, he presents a defense of randomization as a method to maximize accuracy in the conduct of clinical trials. The title also considers ethical issues surrounding experimentation with medical therapies in human subjects. It illustrates and discusses these issues in studies of respiratory therapies in neonates and treatment for certain cancers in adults. The author shows that in many cases sufficient evidence can be accrued to warrant generally accepted new therapies without the need for evidence derived from randomized clinical trials.