What Determines the Yen Swap Spread?


Book Description

We investigate if Japanese yen denominated interest rate swap spreads price risks in addition to liquidity and default risk. These additional risks include: the time-varying correlation between interest rates of different types and maturities; business cycle risk; and market skewness risk. Our analysis, over a number of different maturities and sample periods, supports the existence of an additional risk premium. We also show that the time-varying correlation between short term market interest rates (e.g., TIBOR) and the longer term Government bond yield (e.g., Gensaki) is of particular importance. Japanese yen swap spreads are shown to contain both pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical elements of business cycle risk, positive risk premia for skewness risk and variable risk premia for correlation risk (between fixed and floating interest rates).




The International Linkage of Interest Rate Swap Spreads


Book Description

In this paper, we investigate Japanese yen and U.S. dollar interest rate swap markets during the period 1990-99. We measure the spreads of the swap rates over comparable treasury yields (on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and U.S. Treasury bonds, respectively) for different maturities. We then analyze the relationship between the swap spreads in the two markets.Our main empirical results are that: (1) the correlations between yen and dollar interest swap spreads are low, indicating that the credit risk factor is country-specific, rather than global in nature, (2) dollar interest rate swaps quot;Granger-causequot; the changes in the spreads of yen interest rate swaps for the long (ten-year) maturities, but the causality does not run the other way, and (3) yen swap spreads are highly correlated with the interest rate differentials between the two markets, and the interest rate differentials have a significant impact on subsequent movements in the yen swap spreads. These empirical results indicate that the specific institutional aspects of the yen fixed income market, such as illiquidity and market frictions, may have affected the yen interest swap rate and the swap spread.




The Transmission of Swap Spreads and Volatilities in the International Swap Markets


Book Description

We investigate the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar interest rate swap markets during the period 1990-2000, by examining the spreads of the swap rates over comparable treasury yields (on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and U.S. Treasury bonds, respectively) for different maturities. We then analyze the transmission of shocks in the swap spreads and their volatilities from one market to the other. Our main findings are: (1) the correlations between the yen and dollar interest swap spreads are low, indicating that the credit risk factor is country-specific, rather than global in nature, (2) the changes in the dollar interest rate swap spreads quot;Granger-causequot; the changes in the spreads of yen interest rate swaps for the long (10-year) maturities, but the causality does not run the other way, (3) yen swap spreads are highly correlated with the interest rate differentials between the two markets, and the interest rate differentials have a significant impact on subsequent movements in the yen swap spreads, (4) the transmission of the volatility of swap spreads is strong from the dollar to the yen markets and relatively weak in the other direction, and (5) shocks to the dollar swap spread have an asymmetric impact on the volatilities of the spreads in both the yen and dollar swap markets, i.e., an increase in the dollar swap spread leads to higher future volatility of the spreads in both swap markets, but a decrease does not. These empirical results suggest that specific institutional aspects, such as illiquidity and market frictions, may have affected the yen interest swap market more than its dollar counterpart.




Credit Risk and the Yen Interest Rate Swap Market


Book Description

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of Japanese yen interest rate swaps during the period 1990-96. We obtain measures of the spreads of the swap rates over comparable Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) for different maturities and analyze the relationship between the swap spreads and credit risk variables.Our empirical results in the yen swap market indicate that: 1) the commonly-used assumption of lognormal default-free interest rates and swap spreads is strongly rejected by the data, 2) the term structure of swap spreads displays a humped-shape, and 3) the shocks in the yen swap spread are negatively correlated with the shocks in the comparable default-free spot rates, especially for longer maturities. Our analysis also indicates that yen swap spreads behaved very differently from the credit spreads on Japanese corporate bonds in the early nineties. In contrast to Japanese corporate bonds, we find that the yen swap spread is also significantly related to proxies for the long-term credit risk factor. Furthermore, the swap spread is negatively related to the level and slope of the term structure and positively related to the curvature, indicating that the credit 'optionality' is priced in the swap rate. Thus, overall, the yen swap market was sensitive to credit risk during the period of our study.




Determinants of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Spreads


Book Description

This paper investigates the determinants of variations in the yield spreads between Japanese yen interest rate swaps and Japan government bonds for a period from 1997 to 2005. A smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR) model and generalized impulse response functions are used to analyze the impact of various economic shocks on swap spreads. The volatility based on a GARCH model of the government bond rate is identified as the transition variable that controls the smooth transition from high volatility regime to low volatility regime. The break point of the regime shift occurs around the end of the Japanese banking crisis. The impact of economic shocks on swap spreads varies across the maturity of swap spreads as well as regimes. Overall, swap spreads are more responsive to the economic shocks in the high volatility regime. Moreover, volatility shock has profound effects on shorter maturity spreads, while the term structure shock plays an important role in impacting longer maturity spreads. Our results also show noticeable differences between the non-linear and linear impulse response functions.




Credit Risk and the Pricing of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swaps


Book Description

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of Japanese yen interest rate swaps during the period 1990-96. We obtain measures of the spreads of the swap rates over comparable Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) for different maturities and analyze the relationship between the swap spreads and credit risk variables.




Interest Rate & Currency Swaps


Book Description

"The swap market has revolutionized the world of finance. No other instrument provides such flexibility in managing the risk of assets and liabilities. Indeed, swaps simply have no equal as financing and risk-management tools." "The growth of the swap market has been phenomenal. After coming into being less than 20 years ago, the notional value of the swap market has expanded to around $3 trillion. Among financial professionals, the influence of the swap market is second only to the Treasury yield curve in importance." "Interest Rate and Currency Swaps explains how swaps work and how they can be applied to a variety of situations. In clear, straightforward language this book describes the structure of swaps from simple to complex, risk and price analysis of swap transactions and hedging principles." "Many corporations use interest rate swaps to borrow at lower costs than they could through more traditional financing means. Similarly, with the globalization of business, currency swaps are frequently used to hedge foreign exchange risk. Indeed, for most large companies and financial institutions, swap transactions have become routine." "As the swap market has grown, so has the complexity of swap instruments. Authors Ravi Dattatreya, Raj Venkatesh and Vijaya Venkatesh describe in detail a variety of swap structures including: off-market swaps, zero coupon swaps, swaps-in-arrears, basis swaps and forward swaps." "In addition, the authors devote considerable attention to asset/liability management through swaps. They describe basic hedging techniques, as well as unveiling a new method for managing yield curve risk. For any financial institution or corporation grappling with interest rate risk, this section alone is well worth the book's price." "Other topics addressed include measuring interest rate risk, multi-currency hedging, arbitrage and speculation, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation." "Without question, swaps are the single most important finance development in recent years. Interest Rate and Currency Swaps is the definitive source to understand and apply these powerful instruments."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved




An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields


Book Description

This paper econometrically models Japanese yen (JPY)-denominated interest rate swap yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate exerts an influence on the long-term JPY swap yield after controlling for several key macroeconomic variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percentage change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the exchange rate. It also tests whether there are structural breaks in the dynamics of Japanese swap yields and related variables. The estimated econometric models show that the short-term interest rate exerts an important influence on the long-term swap yield in some periods but not in other periods in which core inflation exerts a marked influence on the swap yield. The findings from the econometric models reveal a discernable relationship between the call rate and the swap yield of different maturity tenors clearly held prior to April 2014 but did not in the subsequent period. These findings highlight the limits and scope of John Maynard Keynes's contention that the central bank's policy rate commands a decisive influence over the long-term market rate through the short-term interest rate. The policy implications of the estimated models' results are discussed.




Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants


Book Description

For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).