A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia


Book Description

This Open Access Brief presents the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). KGEMM is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The model has eight blocks (real sector, fiscal, monetary, external sector, price, labor and wages, energy, population, and age cohorts) that interact with each other to represent the Kingdom’s macroeconomy and energy linkages. It captures New Keynesian demand-side features anchored to medium-run equilibrium and long-run aggregate supply. It applies a cointegration and equilibrium correction modeling (ECM) methodology to time series data to estimate the model’s behavioral equations in the framework of Autometrics, a general-to-specific econometric modeling strategy. Hence, the model combines ‘theory-driven’ approach with ‘data-driven’ approach. The Brief begins with an introduction to the theoretical framework of the model and the KGEMM methodology and then walks the reader through the structure of the model and its behavioral equations. The book closes with simulations showing the application of the model. Providing a detailed introduction to a cutting-edge, robust predictive model, this Brief will be of great use to researchers and policymakers interested in macroeconomics, energy economics, econometrics, and more specifically, the economy of Saudi Arabia.




Coronavirus Outbreak and the Great Lockdown


Book Description

This book captures the dynamic relationship between COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil prices and major stock indices as well as the crude oil prices and stock market volatility that have been caused due to outbreak of this pandemic. The pandemic has changed the world melodramatically and major world markets collapsed in the beginning, affecting major industries in an unprecedented way. The book will be useful to the researcher in the field of finance and economics, and policy makers both at government and private level, keeping in view the present state of economy throughout the world.




The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling


Book Description

This work describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting new insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.




Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory


Book Description

The tasks of macroeconomics are to interpret observations on economic aggregates in terms of the motivations and constraints of economic agents and to predict the consequences of alternative hypothetical ways of administering government economic policy. General equilibrium models form a convenient context for analyzing such alternative government policies. In the past ten years, the strengths of general equilibrium models and the corresponding deficiencies of Keynesian and monetarist models of the 1960s have induced macroeconomists to begin applying general equilibrium models. This book describes some general equilibrium models that are dynamic, that have been built to help interpret time-series of observations of economic aggregates and to predict the consequences of alternative government interventions. The first part of the book describes dynamic programming, search theory, and real dynamic capital pricing models. Among the applications are stochastic optimal growth models, matching models, arbitrage pricing theories, and theories of interest rates, stock prices, and options. The remaining parts of the book are devoted to issues in monetary theory; currency-in-utility-function models, cash-in-advance models, Townsend turnpike models, and overlapping generations models are all used to study a set of common issues. By putting these models to work on concrete problems in exercises offered throughout the text, Sargent provides insights into the strengths and weaknesses of these models of money. An appendix on functional analysis shows the unity that underlies the mathematics used in disparate areas of rational expectations economics. This book on dynamic equilibrium macroeconomics is suitable for graduate-level courses; a companion book, Exercises in Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory, provides answers to the exercises and is also available from Harvard University Press.




Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory


Book Description

Economies are constantly in flux, and economists have long sought reliable means of analyzing their dynamic properties. This book provides a succinct and accessible exposition of modern dynamic (or intertemporal) macroeconomics. The authors use a microeconomics-based general equilibrium framework, specifically the overlapping generations model, which assumes that in every period there are two generations which overlap. This model allows the authors to fully describe economies over time and to employ traditional welfare analysis to judge the effects of various policies. By choosing to keep the mathematical level simple and to use the same modeling framework throughout, the authors are able to address many subtle economic issues. They analyze savings, social security systems, the determination of interest rates and asset prices for different types of assets, Ricardian equivalence, business cycles, chaos theory, investment, growth, and a variety of monetary phenomena. Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory will become a classic of economic exposition and a standard teaching and reference tool for intertemporal macroeconomics and the overlapping generations model. The writing is exceptionally clear. Each result is illustrated with analytical derivations, graphically, and by worked out examples. Exercises, which are strategically placed, are an integral part of the book.




The Saudi Arabian Economy


Book Description

The Saudi Arabian economy has changed almost beyond recognition since the oil boom days of the 1980s, and the Kingdom itself has changed too economically, socially, and demographically. In the second edition of The Saudi Arabian Economy, Mohamed Ramady uses several overlapping themes to establish and develop a framework for studying the fundamental challenges to the Saudi economy. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of short-term planning and long-term diversification intended to shield the economy from potentially de-stabilizing oil price fluctuations and the pace and diversity of domestic reforms. The author examines the core strengths and evolution of various financial institutions and the Saudi stock market in the face of globalization, before analyzing the private sector in detail. Topics discussed include: • The hydrocarbon and minerals sector, including the emergence of the competitive petrochemical sector • The impact of small and medium sized businesses and the evolving role of “family” businesses • The growing role of women in the Saudi economy • The role of privatization and FDI as engines of change and the position of public-private-partnerships • The establishment of a foundation for a knowledge-based economy Finally, the author offers an analysis of the key challenges facing the Saudi economy, paying particular attention to the potential costs and benefits of globalization, and membership in the WTO. Employment, education, economic and social stability, and Saudi Arabia’s place in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Saudi Arabia’s evolving strategic economic relations with China and other countries are offered as keys to the consensus building needed to ensure the Kingdom’s healthy economic future.




An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia


Book Description

Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant.




Energy Transition, Climate Change, and COVID-19


Book Description

This volume analyzes the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy transition and climate change from an economic perspective. Since its emergence in early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a powerful effect on multiple facets of the global economy. The unknown scope and duration of the pandemic and its associated economic shocks have made energy security and the process of clean energy transition highly unpredictable. To combat this, this edited volume presents a wide range of theoretical and empirical research at the nexus of the COVID-19 pandemic and energy, resource, and environmental economics. Chapters focus on four major themes: the impact of crises on energy security, the role of resilient energy systems in society, the challenges of clean energy transition, and economic impacts of COVID-19 on climate change. Providing rigorous analysis of an evolving situation that will continue to impact the global energy market, this volume will be of interest to researchers and students of energy economics, environmental economics, and resource economics as well as policy professionals involved in climate change and energy transition.




Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK


Book Description

We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.




Economic Development in Saudi Arabia


Book Description

The changing political situation in the Middle East poses challenges for the economies of the region, and some see none more vulnerable to collapse than Saudi Arabia's. Yet as this study demonstrates, the fundamentals of the Kingdom's economy are relatively robust, as over three quarters of GDP is accounted for by the non-oil sector, and impressive modern industries have been established, notably in petrochemicals. The financial system functions well, and despite substantial government debts, there is low inflation and currency stability. The private sector increasingly drives the economy, although job creation has been insufficient to prevent rising youth unemployment. The development challenges Saudi Arabia faces are similar to those of other middle-income countries, and three decades of diversification have made the economy less unique than it was in the oil boom years of the 1970s.