Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction


Book Description

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages




The Stratosphere


Book Description

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 190. The Stratosphere: Dynamics, Transport, and Chemistry is the first volume in 20 years that offers a comprehensive review of the Earth's stratosphere, increasingly recognized as an important component of the climate system. The volume addresses key advances in our understanding of the stratospheric circulation and transport and summarizes the last two decades of research to provide a concise yet comprehensive overview of the state of the field. This monograph reviews many important aspects of the dynamics, transport, and chemistry of the stratosphere by some of the world's leading experts, including up-to-date discussions of Dynamics of stratospheric polar vortices Chemistry and dynamics of the ozone hole Role of solar variability in the stratosphere Effect of gravity waves in the stratosphere Importance of atmospheric annular modes This volume will be of interest to graduate students and scientists who wish to learn more about the stratosphere. It will also be useful to atmospheric science departments as a textbook for classes on the stratosphere.




Thriving on Our Changing Planet


Book Description

We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.




The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere


Book Description

Despite major advances in the observation and numerical simulation of the atmosphere, basic features of the Earth's climate remain poorly understood. Integrating the available data and computational resources to improve our understanding of the global circulation of the atmosphere remains a challenge. Theory must play a critical role in meeting this challenge. This book provides an authoritative summary of the state of the art on this front. Bringing together sixteen of the field's leading experts to address those aspects of the global circulation of the atmosphere most relevant to climate, the book brings the reader up to date on the key frontiers in general circulation theory-including the nonlinear and turbulent global-scale dynamics that determine fundamental aspects of the Earth's climate. While emphasizing theory, as expressed through relatively simple mathematical models, it also draws connections to simulations with comprehensive general circulation models. Topics include the dynamics of storm tracks, interactions between wave dynamics and the hydrological cycle, monsoons, tropical and extratropical dynamics and interactions, and the processes controlling atmospheric humidity. An essential resource for graduate students in atmospheric, ocean, and climate sciences and for researchers seeking an overview of the field, The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere sets the standard for future research in a science that stands at a critical juncture. With a foreword by Edward Lorenz, the book includes chapters by Christopher Bretherton; Kerry Emanuel; Isaac Held; David Neelin; Raymond Pierrehumbert, Hélène Brogniez, and Rémy Roca; Alan Plumb; Walter Robinson; Tapio Schneider; Richard Seager and David Battisti; Adam Sobel; Kyle Swanson; and Pablo Zurita-Gotor and Richard Lindzen.




Dynamic Coupling and Chemical Transport Between the Stratosphere and the Troposphere


Book Description

Although the stratosphere and troposphere are separately different in many aspects (thermal structure, dynamic circulation, chemical composition and etc.), studies in recent decades have indicated a much stronger connection between these two distinct layers. Dynamically, the stratospheric circulation is driven by the eddies that are dominantly generated in the troposphere, whereas the troospheric circulation varies, in some ocassion, mostly due to the circulation and eddy perturbation originated in the stratosphere. The exchange and transport between the two layers, on the other hand, tend to alter the chemical compostion on both sides, and hence induce subsequent influences on the chemistry and radiation within the two layers. In this study, we further enrich the understanding on the connection between the stratosphere and troposphere by examining their dynamic coupling and chemical exchange. We first investigate the dynamic impact from the troposphere to the stratosphere by examining the role of tropical sea surface temperature (SST). By designing several idealized SST forcing simulations in an aqua-planet model, we find that the zonal distribution of SST perturbations has a major impact on the vertical and meridional structure of the BDC as compared with other SST characteristics. Zonally localized SST heatings tend to generate a shallow acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, whereas SST heatings with a zonally symmetric structure tend to produce a deep strengthening of the stratospheric residual circulation. The shallow versus deep strengthening of the stratospheric residual circulation change has been linked to wave propagation and dissipation in the subtropical lower stratosphere rather than wave generation in the troposphere. The dynamic impact from the stratosphere to the troposphere is then discussed by focusing on the downward influence of polar stratospheric ozone depletion. Three possible mechanisms are examined in an idealized dry model: the polar stratospheric cooling impacts tropospheric synoptic eddies via (a) the direct influences on the lower stratospheric synoptic eddies, (b) the planetary wave-induced residual circulation, and (c) the planetary eddy - synoptic eddy nonlinear interaction. It is argued that the planetary wave-induced residual circulation is not the dominant mechanism, and that the planetary eddies and further nonlinear interaction with synoptic eddies are more likely the key to the downward influence of the ozone depletion-like cooling. Last, the chemical interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere is explored by quantifying the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. The specified dynamics (SD) version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is used to estimate the ozone STE along different isentropic surfaces (isentropic ozone STE herein). Net troposphere-to-stratosphere ozone STE is diagnosed in the subtropics (350 K - 380 K), while net stratosphereto-troposphere ozone STE is diagnosed in the extratropics (280 K - 350 K), with different magnitudes and seasonalities over different isentropic (meridional) regions. Potential vorticity (PV) sources induced by both differential diabatic heating and isentropic mixing contribute to the diagnosed isentropic ozone STE flux, but the latter is slightly larger. Moreover, results in the SD-WACCM are generally consistent with the analysis in a different model, the SD version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), but the SD-CMAM diagnoses a smaller STE flux. This difference is associated with the different extent of isentropic mixing between the two models.




Middle Atmosphere Dynamics


Book Description

For advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students in atmospheric, oceanic, and climate science, Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Dynamics is an introductory textbook on the circulations of the atmosphere and ocean and their interaction, with an emphasis on global scales. It will give students a good grasp of what the atmosphere and oceans look like on the large-scale and why they look that way. The role of the oceans in climate and paleoclimate is also discussed. The combination of observations, theory and accompanying illustrative laboratory experiments sets this text apart by making it accessible to students with no prior training in meteorology or oceanography. * Written at a mathematical level that is appealing for undergraduates and beginning graduate students * Provides a useful educational tool through a combination of observations and laboratory demonstrations which can be viewed over the web * Contains instructions on how to reproduce the simple but informative laboratory experiments * Includes copious problems (with sample answers) to help students learn the material.




Middle Atmosphere


Book Description

PAGEOPH, stratosphere, these differences provide us with new evidence, interpretation of which can materially help to advance our understanding of stratospheric dynamics in general. It is now weil established that smaller-scale motions-in particular gravity waves and turbulence-are of fundamental importance in the general circulation of the mesosphere; they seem to be similarly, if less spectacularly, significant in the troposphere, and probably also in the stratosphere. Our understanding of these motions, their effects on the mean circulation and their mutual interactions is progressing rapidly, as is weil illustrated by the papers in this issue; there are reports of observational studies, especially with new instruments such as the Japanese MV radar, reviews of the state of theory, a laboratory study and an analysis of gravity waves and their effects in the high resolution "SKYHI" general circulation model. There are good reasons to suspect that gravity waves may be of crucial significance in making the stratospheric circulation the way it is (modeling experience being one suggestive piece of evidence for this). Direct observational proof has thus far been prevented by the difficulty of making observations of such scales of motion in this region; in one study reported here, falling sphere observations are used to obtain information on the structure and intensity of waves in the upper stratosphere.




Stratosphere Troposphere Interactions


Book Description

Stratospheric processes play a signi?cant role in regulating the weather and c- mate of the Earth system. Solar radiation, which is the primary source of energy for the tropospheric weather systems, is absorbed by ozone when it passes through the stratosphere, thereby modulating the solar-forcing energy reaching into the t- posphere. The concentrations of the radiatively sensitive greenhouse gases present in the lower atmosphere, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone, control the radiation balance of the atmosphere by the two-way interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere. The stratosphere is the transition region which interacts with the weather s- tems in the lower atmosphere and the richly ionized upper atmosphere. Therefore, this part of the atmosphere provides a long list of challenging scienti?c problems of basic nature involving its thermal structure, energetics, composition, dynamics, chemistry, and modeling. The lower stratosphere is very much linked dynamically, radiatively,and chemically with the upper troposphere,even though the temperature characteristics of these regions are different. The stratosphere is a region of high stability, rich in ozone and poor in water - por and temperature increases with altitude. The lower stratospheric ozone absorbs the harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun and protects life on the Earth. On the other hand, the troposphere has high concentrations of water vapor, is low in ozone, and temperature decreases with altitude. The convective activity is more in the troposphere than in the stratosphere.




Radiative Forcing of Climate Change


Book Description

Changes in climate are driven by natural and human-induced perturbations of the Earth's energy balance. These climate drivers or "forcings" include variations in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun. Although climate throughout Earth's history has varied from "snowball" conditions with global ice cover to "hothouse" conditions when glaciers all but disappeared, the climate over the past 10,000 years has been remarkably stable and favorable to human civilization. Increasing evidence points to a large human impact on global climate over the past century. The report reviews current knowledge of climate forcings and recommends critical research needed to improve understanding. Whereas emphasis to date has been on how these climate forcings affect global mean temperature, the report finds that regional variation and climate impacts other than temperature deserve increased attention.