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A Note on Optimal Inference in the Linear IV Model

Author : Donald W. K. Andrews

Publisher :

Page : 100 pages

File Size : 42,84 MB

Release : 2017

Category :

ISBN :

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This paper considers tests and confidence sets (CSņs) concerning the coefficient on the endogenous variable in the linear IV regression model with homoskedastic normal errors and one right-hand side endogenous variable. The paper derives a finite-sample lower bound function for the probability that a CS constructed using a two-sided invariant similar test has infinite length and shows numerically that the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) CS of Moreira (2003) is not always "very close" to this lower bound function. This implies that the CLR test is not always very close to the two-sided asymptotically-efficient (AE) power envelope for invariant similar tests of Andrews, Moreira, and Stock (2006) (AMS). On the other hand, the paper establishes the finite-sample optimality of the CLR test when the correlation between the structural and reduced-form errors, or between the two reduced-form errors, goes to 1 or -1 and other parameters are held constant, where optimality means achievement of the two-sided AE power envelope of AMS. These results cover the full range of (non-zero) IV strength. The paper investigates in detail scenarios in which the CLR test is not on the two-sided AE power envelope of AMS. Also, the paper shows via theory and numerical work that the CLR test is close to having greatest average power, where the average is over a grid of concentration parameter values and over pairs alternative hypothesis values of the parameter of interest, uniformly over pairs of alternative hypothesis values and uniformly over the correlation between the structural and reduced-form errors. The paper concludes that, although the CLR test is not always very close to the two-sided AE power envelope of AMS, CLR tests and CS's have very good overall properties.



On Optimal Inference in the Linear IV Model

Author : Donald W. K. Andrews

Publisher :

Page : 113 pages

File Size : 46,38 MB

Release : 2018

Category :

ISBN :

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Book Description

This paper considers tests and confidence sets (CS's) concerning the coefficient on the endogenous variable in the linear IV regression model with homoskedastic normal errors and one right-hand side endogenous variable. The paper derives a finite-sample lower bound function for the probability that a CS constructed using a two-sided invariant similar test has infinite length and shows numerically that the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) CS of Moreira (2003) is not always “very close,” say .005 or less, to this lower bound function. This implies that the CLR test is not always very close to the two-sided asymptotically-efficient (AE) power envelope for invariant similar tests of Andrews, Moreira, and Stock (2006) (AMS).On the other hand, the paper establishes the finite-sample optimality of the CLR test when the correlation between the structural and reduced-form errors, or between the two reduced-form errors, goes to 1 or -1 and other parameters are held constant, where optimality means achievement of the two-sided AE power envelope of AMS. These results cover the full range of (non-zero) IV strength.The paper investigates in detail scenarios in which the CLR test is not on the two-sided AE power envelope of AMS. Also, theory and numerical results indicate that the CLR test is close to having greatest average power, where the average is over a grid of concentration parameter values and over pairs alternative hypothesis values of the parameter of interest, uniformly over pairs of alternative hypothesis values and uniformly over the correlation between the structural and reduced-form errors. Here, “close” means .015 or less for k≤20, where k denotes the number of IV's, and .025 or less for 0



Asymptotic Optimal Inference for Non-ergodic Models

Author : I. V. Basawa

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 183 pages

File Size : 47,19 MB

Release : 2012-12-06

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 1461255058

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Book Description

This monograph contains a comprehensive account of the recent work of the authors and other workers on large sample optimal inference for non-ergodic models. The non-ergodic family of models can be viewed as an extension of the usual Fisher-Rao model for asymptotics, referred to here as an ergodic family. The main feature of a non-ergodic model is that the sample Fisher information, appropriately normed, converges to a non-degenerate random variable rather than to a constant. Mixture experiments, growth models such as birth processes, branching processes, etc. , and non-stationary diffusion processes are typical examples of non-ergodic models for which the usual asymptotics and the efficiency criteria of the Fisher-Rao-Wald type are not directly applicable. The new model necessitates a thorough review of both technical and qualitative aspects of the asymptotic theory. The general model studied includes both ergodic and non-ergodic families even though we emphasise applications of the latter type. The plan to write the monograph originally evolved through a series of lectures given by the first author in a graduate seminar course at Cornell University during the fall of 1978, and by the second author at the University of Munich during the fall of 1979. Further work during 1979-1981 on the topic has resolved many of the outstanding conceptual and technical difficulties encountered previously. While there are still some gaps remaining, it appears that the mainstream development in the area has now taken a more definite shape.



Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Differential Equations

Author : Jaya P. N. Bishwal

Publisher : Springer

Page : 271 pages

File Size : 10,91 MB

Release : 2007-09-26

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 3540744487

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Book Description

Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations and stochastic partial differential equations is the science, art and technology of modeling complex phenomena. The subject has attracted researchers from several areas of mathematics. This volume presents the estimation of the unknown parameters in the corresponding continuous models based on continuous and discrete observations and examines extensively maximum likelihood, minimum contrast and Bayesian methods.



Stochastic Processes: Theory and Methods

Author : D N Shanbhag

Publisher : Gulf Professional Publishing

Page : 990 pages

File Size : 27,10 MB

Release : 2001

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 9780444500144

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Book Description

This volume in the series contains chapters on areas such as pareto processes, branching processes, inference in stochastic processes, Poisson approximation, Levy processes, and iterated random maps and some classes of Markov processes. Other chapters cover random walk and fluctuation theory, a semigroup representation and asymptomatic behavior of certain statistics of the Fisher-Wright-Moran coalescent, continuous-time ARMA processes, record sequence and their applications, stochastic networks with product form equilibrium, and stochastic processes in insurance and finance. Other subjects include renewal theory, stochastic processes in reliability, supports of stochastic processes of multiplicity one, Markov chains, diffusion processes, and Ito's stochastic calculus and its applications. c. Book News Inc.





Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models

Author : Jaya P. N. Bishwal

Publisher : Springer Nature

Page : 634 pages

File Size : 21,32 MB

Release : 2022-08-06

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 3031038614

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Book Description

This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.





Statistical Inference for Ergodic Diffusion Processes

Author : Yury A. Kutoyants

Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media

Page : 493 pages

File Size : 40,84 MB

Release : 2013-03-09

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 144713866X

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Book Description

The first book in inference for stochastic processes from a statistical, rather than a probabilistic, perspective. It provides a systematic exposition of theoretical results from over ten years of mathematical literature and presents, for the first time in book form, many new techniques and approaches.



Semimartingales and their Statistical Inference

Author : B.L.S. Prakasa Rao

Publisher : Routledge

Page : 247 pages

File Size : 13,96 MB

Release : 2019-01-15

Category : Mathematics

ISBN : 1351416928

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Book Description

Statistical inference carries great significance in model building from both the theoretical and the applications points of view. Its applications to engineering and economic systems, financial economics, and the biological and medical sciences have made statistical inference for stochastic processes a well-recognized and important branch of statistics and probability. The class of semimartingales includes a large class of stochastic processes, including diffusion type processes, point processes, and diffusion type processes with jumps, widely used for stochastic modeling. Until now, however, researchers have had no single reference that collected the research conducted on the asymptotic theory for semimartingales. Semimartingales and their Statistical Inference, fills this need by presenting a comprehensive discussion of the asymptotic theory of semimartingales at a level needed for researchers working in the area of statistical inference for stochastic processes. The author brings together into one volume the state-of-the-art in the inferential aspect for such processes. The topics discussed include: Asymptotic likelihood theory Quasi-likelihood Likelihood and efficiency Inference for counting processes Inference for semimartingale regression models The author addresses a number of stochastic modeling applications from engineering, economic systems, financial economics, and medical sciences. He also includes some of the new and challenging statistical and probabilistic problems facing today's active researchers working in the area of inference for stochastic processes.