Air Defense Trends


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Air defense trends. Jan


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Going Global?


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The increasing consolidation of the defense aerospace industry, brought about by post-Cold War reductions in defense authorizations, has led to the proliferation of cross-border relationships between U.S. and European firms. This report examines aerospace industry globalization trends with a view toward determining how the U.S. Air Force can best exploit such trends while minimizing their risks. It concludes that further research must be done to ascertain how the advantages of globalization, such as increased competition and interoperability, can best be achieved without compromising security concerns.




History of Strategic Air and Ballistic Missile Defense


Book Description

In 1975, U.S. Army Center of Military History commissioned a report on the History of Strategic Air and Ballistic Missile Defense, Volume I (1945-1955) and Volume II (1956-1972), which was part of a larger study of the strategic arms competition that developed between the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II. The report addresses each country's approach to civil defense against the threat from the air and each country's emphasis on specific elements of air defense strategy at various periods between 1945 and 1972. Two central questions concerned the U.S. and Soviet defense planners: "How might we be attacked?" and "How shall we defend our country?" Overall, technological changes were the predominant factor affecting air and missile defense strategy during the period primarily as they related to the developing offensive threat. The scope and pace of technological innovations introduced a measure of uncertainty, placed considerable strain on the stability of the U.S.-Soviet relationship, and raised fundamental challenges to previous concepts of how best to defend the United States. U.S. strategy was built on the variety of new weapon system developments; while Soviet defense trends demonstrated Soviet awareness and responded to developments in U.S. strategic offensive forces. The basic patterns of action were set by initial, and early, strategic choices. Thereafter, the strategic problem centered on technological development. Threat perceptions increasingly involved possible application of new technologies by the Soviets in order to define or delimit future threats. Perceptions of future threats were influenced by the view of available technologies, whether or not the Soviets had demonstrated the capacity to apply them. Available or known technologies were extrapolated to assess future threats. However, a direct action-reaction cycle was not seen as a factor in the development of U.S. and Soviet strategic air and missile defense systems.




Military Trends and the Future of Warfare


Book Description

This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines some of the most significant factors shaping military trends over the next ten to 15 years: changes in the size, quality, and character of military forces available to the United States and its potential adversaries. The report identifies six trends that will shape who and where the United States is most likely to fight in the future, how those wars will be conducted, and why they will occur. These trends are: decreasing U.S. conventional force size, increasing near-peer conventional modernization and professionalization, continuing development of asymmetric capabilities by second-tier powers, increasing adversary use of gray-zone tactics, continuing democratization of violence, and emerging artificial intelligence as a class of disruptive technologies.




Missile Defence


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Global Mobility


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This unique book reviews man-portable air defense system missile and countermeasure capabilities, weapon proliferation trends, and the impact on global mobility operations through 2025. Man-portable air defense systems are threatening places of the world where mobility operations occur daily and the U.S has spent billions of dollars trying to counter their effects to little avail. The continued ability to project and apply joint U.S. military power is jeopardized without suitable defensive systems for military and civilian mobility aircraft. Breakthroughs in laser and microwave weapon technologies are described and represent the best opportunity for transformational progress against these missile threats. Developing these technologies will ensure the U.S. has the capabilities to defeat the projected threats using a mix of ground-based and aircraft-based defensive systems to smartly defend all U.S. and coalition transport and tanker aircraft. This paper recommends changes to strategy, technology development, and doctrine to meet this force protection and projection challenge. CHAPTER I * INTRODUCTION * CHAPTER II * THE THREAT TO THE GLOBAL MOBILITY SYSTEM * Global Mobility System * Global Mobility Concept of Operations * Who is Responsible to Defend Against These Threats? * Who Has These Weapons? * Strategic and Operational Implications * Summary and Recommendations * CHAPTER III * MANPADS MISSILE AND COUNTERMEASURES TECHNOLOGIES * MANPADS at Work: Mechanics of the Kill * Missile Components: Present and Future * Current Countermeasure Technology Program and Investments * Mid-Term Countermeasure Technologies-MEDUSA * Future Programs: Hard-Kill Lasers * Radio Frequency Weapons * Summary and Recommendations * CHAPTER IV * TWO STRATEGIES TO DEFEAT MANPADS THREATS * Aircraft-Based Countermeasures System * Ground-Based Countermeasures System * Summary and Recommendations * CHAPTER V * CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS * APPENDIX A * LIST OF NATIONS WITH MANPADS Man-portable air defense system threats are not a Middle-East phenomenon; mobility aircraft face increasing surface-to-air threats in all regions of the world. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reports that there have been 29 instances in which civilian transport planes crashed after being hit by shoulder-fired missiles, causing up to 550 deaths. These include attacks on transports in Columbia, Angola, Congo, Chechnya, Sri Lanka, and Kosovo. Jane's Intelligence Review reported seven military transports were downed and another one struck by non-state use of man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) missiles from 1996 to 2001. The nature of the threat environment mobility assets face can be broadly categorized into three levels. The first includes the use of small to medium-caliber automatic weapons, up to 14.5-millimeter heavy machine guns, and infrared (IR) guided man-portable air defense systems. This level is characterized by the use of enemy-controlled agents, sympathizers, and terrorists. The next threat level includes more advanced, short to medium-range radar-guided anti-aircraft artillery and surface-to-air missiles. These systems are associated with regular combat units and more traditional nation-states. The final threat level, consisting of a sophisticated enemy air defense system with integrated high performance surface-to-air missiles and air interceptors, represents a major theater war scenario with a near-peer competitor. Currently only a few nation-states could present this most advanced level of threat.




History of Strategic Air and Ballistic Missile Defense


Book Description

In 1975, U.S. Army Center of Military History commissioned a report on the History of Strategic Air and Ballistic Missile Defense, Volume I (1945-1955) and Volume II (1956-1972), which was part of a larger study of the strategic arms competition that developed between the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II. The report addresses each country's approach to civil defense against the threat from the air and each country's emphasis on specific elements of air defense strategy at various periods between 1945 and 1972. Two central questions concerned the U.S. and Soviet defense planners: "How might we be attacked?" and "How shall we defend our country?" Overall, technological changes were the predominant factor affecting air and missile defense strategy during the period primarily as they related to the developing offensive threat. The scope and pace of technological innovations introduced a measure of uncertainty, placed considerable strain on the stability of the U.S.-Soviet relationship, and raised fundamental challenges to previous concepts of how best to defend the United States. U.S. strategy was built on the variety of new weapon system developments; while Soviet defense trends demonstrated Soviet awareness and responded to developments in U.S. strategic offensive forces. The basic patterns of action were set by initial, and early, strategic choices. Thereafter, the strategic problem centered on technological development. Threat perceptions increasingly involved possible application of new technologies by the Soviets in order to define or delimit future threats. Perceptions of future threats were influenced by the view of available technologies, whether or not the Soviets had demonstrated the capacity to apply them. Available or known technologies were extrapolated to assess future threats. However, a direct action-reaction cycle was not seen as a factor in the development of U.S. and Soviet strategic air and missile defense systems.




Systems Engineering and Program Management


Book Description

Systems engineering and program management (SE/PM) constitute a large portion of the acquisition cost of military aircraft and guided weapons systems. The goal of this study was the development of a set of cost-estimating relationships that can be used to estimate the SE/PM cost element for development and production of aircraft and weapons programs. The authors canvassed government and industry personnel to learn about current techniques for estimating SE/PM costs, and they collected historical data from several aircraft and weapons programs to investigate trends in SE/PM costs over time and to generate methods that cost analysts can use early in the life cycle of a program when little cost information is available. The authors also investigated the effects on SE/PM costs from acquisition reform, including the reduction in the number of military specifications and standards, the use of integrated product and process teams, and the trend toward "evolutionary acquisition." This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Book jacket.




Going Global?


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