America's Long-term Fiscal Outlook


Book Description

This book contains a variety of research related to the future of the federal budget. Significant uncertainty surrounds long-term fiscal projections, but under any plausible scenario, the federal budget is on an unsustainable path- that is, federal debt will grow much faster than the economy over the long run. In the absence of significant changes in policy, rising costs for health care and the ageing of the U.S. population will cause federal spending to grow rapidly. If federal revenues as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) remain at their current level, that rise in spending will eventually cause future budget deficits to become unsustainable. To prevent deficits from growing to levels that could impose substantial costs on the economy, this book examines the revenues that must rise as a share of GDP, or the projected spending that must fall -- or some combination of the two which must be achieved. This book consists of public domain documents which have been located, gathered, combined, reformatted, and enhanced with a subject index, selectively edited and bound to provide easy access.




Long-Term Fiscal Outlook: Action Is Needed to Avoid the Possibility of a Serious Economic Disruption in the Future


Book Description

For many years, we have been warned that our nation is on an imprudent & unsustainable fiscal path. During the past three years, the Comptroller General has traveled to 25 states as part of the Fiscal Wake-Up Tour. Members of this diverse group of policy experts agree that finding solutions to the nation¿s long-term fiscal challenge will require bipartisan cooperation, a willingness to discuss all options, & the courage to make tough choices. In this testimony, the Comptroller General discusses the long-term fiscal outlook, our nation¿s huge health care challenge, & the shrinking window of opportunity for action. Illustrations.







Nation's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook


Book Description

The gov¿t. publishes long-term fiscal simulations of what might happen to fed. deficits and debt levels under varying policy assumptions. There are two simulations: (1) "Baseline Extended" follows the Sept. baseline estimates for the first 10 years and then holds revenue and spending other than large entitlement programs constant as a share of GDP; and (2) The "Alternative" simulation is based on historical trends and recent policy preferences. Discretionary spending grows with GDP rather than inflation during the first 10 years, Medicare physician pay. rates are not reduced, and all expiring tax provisions are extended until 2019 and then revenue is brought back to about its historical level. This update incorp. March 2009 baseline projections. Illus.




Long-Term Fiscal Outlook


Book Description

This statement addresses 4 key points: (1) the fed. gov¿t. long-term fiscal outlook is a matter of utmost concern; (2) this challenge is driven primarily by health care cost growth; (3) reform of health care is essential but other areas also need attention which requires a multi-pronged solution; and (4) the fed. gov¿t. faces increasing pressures yet a shrinking window of opportunity for phasing in needed adjustments. The simulations of the fed. gov¿t. long-term fiscal outlook continue to indicate that the long-term outlook is unsustainable. This update combined with an analysis of the fiscal outlook of state and local gov¿ts. demonstrates that the fiscal challenges facing all levels of gov¿t. are linked and should be considered in an integrated manner. Ill.




Nation's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook: April 2008 Update


Book Description

Long-term fiscal simulations of what might happen to fed. deficits and debt levels under varying policy assumptions continue to illustrate that the long-term fiscal outlook is unsustainable. Despite some improvement in the long-term outlook for fed. health and retirement spending, the fed. gov¿t. still faces large and growing structural deficits driven primarily by rising health care costs and known demographic trends. Nearly 80 million Americans will become eligible for Social Security retirement benefits over the next two decades. Yet the real drive of the long-term fiscal outlook is health care spending. Medicare and Medicaid are both large and projected to continue growing rapidly in the future. Charts and tables.







Budget Issues


Book Description







Nation's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook


Book Description

Since 1992, GAO has published long-term fiscal simulations of what might happen to fed. deficits & debt levels under varying policy assumptions. Current long-term simulations show ever-larger deficits resulting in a fed. debt burden that ultimately spirals out of control. There are two alternative fiscal paths. The first is ¿Baseline extended,¿ which extends the CBO¿s baseline estimates beyond the 10-year projection period, & the second is an alternative based on recent trends & policy preferences. For this update, GAO modified the alternative simulation to reflect a return to historical levels of revenue & a more realistic Medicare scenario for physician payments. Both simulations show that we are on an unsustainable fiscal path. Charts & tables.