An Essay on Probabilities, and on Their Application to Life Contingencies and Insurance Offices (Classic Reprint)


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Excerpt from An Essay on Probabilities, and on Their Application to Life Contingencies and Insurance Offices IN order to explain the particular object of this Trea tise, it will be necessary to give a brief account of the science on which it treats. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.




Probability: The Science of Uncertainty


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Covers the basic probability of distributions with an emphasis on applications from the areas of investments, insurance, and engineering. This book is suitable as a text for senior undergraduate and beginning graduate students in mathematics, statistics, actuarial science, finance, or engineering.







Willful Ignorance


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An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.




An Essay on Probabilities


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An Essay on Probabilities, and on Their Application to Life Contingencies and Insurance Offices


Book Description

Excerpt from An Essay on Probabilities, and on Their Application to Life Contingencies and Insurance Offices That is, the first part of the rule, when the annuity is extinguished during the tabular life of the party, gives the value of his interest upon the supposition that he is to begin to pay as soon as he ceases to receive. If then, this is not to be the case, the value of his interest must be increased accordingly. 4. The method of the balance of annuities, or the determination of complicated annuities by the addition and substraction of simple ones. This has been done before; but it has not, to my knowledge, been carried to the extent of making all the questions which commonly occur deducible from the fundamental tables, without the aid of any new series. It is desirable that the beginner should be accustomed to deduction by reasoning, without having recourse to the mechanism of algebra, which, as a quaint editor of Euclid observed, "is the paradise of the mind, where it may enjoy the fruits of all its former labours, without the fatigue of thinking." Of no part of algebra is this more true, than of the method by which complicated annuities are deduced from simple ones, by the resolution of the series which represent them into the simpler series of which they are composed. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.







An Essay on Probabilities


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This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.