The Maintenance and Propagation of African Easterly Waves Across Northern Africa: A Case Study and Analysis of the Environment


Book Description

This research focuses on the formation and maintenance of an African Easterly Wave (AEW) that developed over Northern Africa in 2000. Specifically, the pre-development period of Hurricane Alberto that initially formed over the Ethiopian Highlands (EH) region is studied in conjunction with this AEW disturbance. Based on EUMETSAT infrared (IR) satellite imagery and ECMWF 0.5o observational model (EOM) analysis data, we identified four convective genesis periods (G-I, G-II, G-III, and G-IV) and three lysis periods (L-I, L-II, and L-III). Based on the EOM analysis of the pre-Alberto system, we found that moisture and vertical velocity played a major role in the generation and maintenance of the convective cycles associated with the pre-Alberto system as it traveled westward across Northern Africa. Initially, orographic effects induce vertical velocity and moisture, and as the Alberto system travels westward these parameters are governed more by environmental factors. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Regional Climate Model Version 3.0 (henceforth RegCM3) was used to run the control case and several sensitivity simulations. We found that the EH is important for focusing and organizing AEW features by producing a consistent stationary wave mode, generating lee side vorticity, and initially providing sufficient vertical moisture flux for convection. PBL effects over the EH cause the initial convection in response to diurnal diabetic heating. As this convection propagates downstream, it merges with the orographically generated MV on the lee of the EH and a MCC results. PBL effects and moisture availability are important for propagating and maintaining AEW disturbances as they travel to the west and supporting sufficient moisture by allowing for surface moisture fluxes to affect these systems and aid in convective development. The AEW is slightly modulated by orography downstream from the EH region. Both the EH region and the PBL effects are essential in th.

























Next Generation Earth System Prediction


Book Description

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.