Political Risk Assessment


Book Description




Assessing Country Risk


Book Description

Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.




Country Risk Assessment


Book Description

One of the few books on the subject, Country Risk Assessment combines the theoretical and practical tools for managing international country risk exposure. - Offers a comprehensive discussion of the specific mechanisms that apply to country risk assessment. - Discusses various techniques associated with global investment strategy. - Presents and analyses the various sources of country risk. - Provides an in depth coverage of information sources and country risk service providers. - Gives techniques for forecasting country financial crises. - Includes practical examples and case studies. - Provides a comprehensive review of all existing methods including the techniques on the cutting-edge Market Based Approaches such as KMV, CreditMetrics, CountryMetrics and CreditRisk+.




Managing Country Risk


Book Description

What would you do if a law that enabled your investment to operate successfully abroad suddenly changed, and your business could no longer operate profitably there? Imagine exporting goods to a government buyer only to discover after the fact that your home country, or the United Nations, has just imposed an embargo on that country. Managing Country Risk: A Practitioner’s Guide to Effective Cross-Border Risk Analysis explains how to identify and manage the many risks associated with conducting business abroad. Daniel Wagner, an industry expert with decades of battle-tested experience, provides the real-world insight needed to think outside the box and anticipate the impact of change on your business operations. Using case studies and practical examples, it supplies essential information on country risk management and explains how these concepts apply to every day operational examples. Considering the impact of perception on investment decisions, it demonstrates how to put a country risk assessment into practice and explains how to create a framework, select the right tools, and map out a country risk analysis methodology. Appropriate for a wide audience—from individual entrepreneurs and small exporters to multinational corporations—the book provides a solid foundation in the basics of country risk analysis. It facilitates an understanding of the full range of cross-border risks and explains how to manage them. The strategies, concepts, and tools outlined in the book provide you with the understanding needed to help your organization make more-informed decisions about how it does business abroad. Practical examples and case studies provide the real-world insight needed to add value to the risk management processes in your organization and enhance your company’s ability to make a profit.




Managing Country Risk in an Age of Globalization


Book Description

This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global economy together with new risks such as terrorism, systemic risk, environmental risk, and the rising trend of global volatility and contagion. The book also assesses the limited usefulness of traditional yardsticks of Country Risk, such as ratings and rankings, which at best reflect the market consensus without predictive value and at worst amplify risk aversion and generate crisis contamination. This book goes further than comparing a wide range of risk management methods in that it provides operational and forward-looking warning signs of Country Risk. The combination of the authors’ academic and market-based backgrounds makes the book a useful tool for scholars, analysts, and practitioners.




Guide to Country Risk


Book Description

Country risk explains the things that can go wrong when business is conducted across borders. It's not just multinational companies, with factories worldwide and complex operations, that need to understand sudden changes in business conditions. These can affect any small firm that may be looking to expand sales abroad or work with a foreign supplier. The 2008-09 global financial crisis and the Arab Spring showed us how quickly and dramatically business conditions in any country can worsen and spread. But a thorough understanding and careful management of country risk will help a company survive a crisis -- and even open up new opportunities. The Economist Guide to Country Risk explains: What risks foreign investors face, and how to measure and manage them in a systematic way. Why political and economic shocks are so hard to predict. Where economies are vulnerable and how existing risk models spot (or miss) signs of impending disaster. The typical bad habits of managers who ignore the warning signs. How and where the next crisis will emerge.




National Risk Assessments


Book Description

This report provides a synthetic view of national risk assessments (NRAs) in twenty OECD Member countries. NRA are used to support risk management decisions in a rapidly changing global risk landscape characterized by increasingly complex, interconnected societies and highly mobile people, information and goods. The report highlights good governance practices in establishing NRAs and how the results are used to inform public policy. It identifies challenges that OECD Member countries continue to confront in their efforts to implement NRA, and makes concrete recommendations where improvements could still be made.




Country Risk Evaluation


Book Description

Financial globalization has increased the significance of methods used in the evaluation of country risk, one of the major research topics in economics and finance. Written by experts in the fields of multicriteria methodology, credit risk assessment, operations research, and financial management, this book develops a comprehensive framework for evaluating models based on several classification techniques that emerge from different theoretical directions. This book compares different statistical and data mining techniques, noting the advantages of each method, and introduces new multicriteria methodologies that are important to country risk modeling. This work is a useful toolkit for economists, financial managers, bank managers, operations researchers, management scientists, and risk analysts. Moreover, the book can also be used as a supplementary textbook for graduate courses in finance and financial risk management.




Evaluating Country Risks for International Investments


Book Description

This unique volume presents a trailblazing project of country risk analysis for international investments. It develops an innovative range of tools and techniques on the cutting edge of financial theories and practices for assessing and incorporating country/political risk in cross-border investment strategies. These tools and techniques address the nature of country risk as a broad concept that comprises an underlying combination of economics, finance, geopolitics, sociology, and history.




Cross-Border Exposures and Country Risk


Book Description

The international financial system has come under strain several times in recent years, and analysis has shown that most crises originated from the risks built into cross-border exposures. Assessment and monitoring of cross-border exposures and country risk are essential activities for international lending agencies such as government bodies, banks, multinational corporations and other investors. Inadequate risk management could have a destabilising effect on both lender and borrower and could result in a major international financial crisis. This completely revised edition of Thomas E Krayenbuehl's classic handbook clearly shows how the various players can quantify and manage the complex factors involved in order to minimise the risk and avoid potentially catastrophic consequences. It provides both a rigorous analysis of the current situation and a guide to meeting the challenges of the future. Just some of the things you'll discover. How to succeed in cross-border lending and investment through good assessment, monitoring and hedging of country risk How the Tequila and Asian crises came about, and the lessons learned The likelihood of future crises and the potential causes The latest problems to beset the international financial system The recent developments in cross-border financing Why the problem of contagion occurs between seemingly unrelated markets The enormous need for global capital to bring about sustainable economic development in the developing world, and the role of the major players in fulfilling it The numerous factors that constitute and influence a specific country risk The responsibilities of all the parties involved, from the IMF and the World Bank to the industrialised and developing nations, the regulators and the rating agencies How this study helps you: This lucid and authoritative handbook will help you to: Understand the problems facing the international financial system Identify and assess new investment opportunities Optimise risk composition of cross-border lending or investment Make sound decisions, minimise risk and achieve better outcomes The definitive study of this important topic - its purpose, practice and implications