Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.




North-South Trade, Employment, and Inequality


Book Description

In this important and topical book, Adrian Wood demonstrates that recent changes in North-South trade have had a far larger impact on labor markets than earlier studies imply, altering the relative demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the two regions. Developing his argument by incorporating three fields of economics--international, labor, and development--he suggests policies that could reduce the resulting social dislocation in the North, without jeopardizing world trade or economic progress in the South. Wood argues that there are grounds for qualified eptimism despite this problem. Greater trade should mean greater prosperity for developing countries, and less global inequality, while for developed countries it should mean workers are available to produce sophisticated exports, which the South cannot produce. Northern governments must take action to avoid the situation of rising unemployment and protectionism in the North, and exploitation of labor in the South. Wood argues that this can be done not through protectionism, but through investment in education and training to raise the supply of skilled labor.




Global Productivity


Book Description

The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD




Changing Patterns of Global Trade


Book Description

Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.




The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics: Context and concepts


Book Description

For a long time, economic research on Africa was not seen as a profitable venture intellectually or professionally-few researchers in top-ranked institutions around the world chose to become experts in the field. This was understandable: the reputation of Africa-centered economic research was not enhanced by the well-known limitations of economic data across the continent. Moreover, development economics itself was not always fashionable, and the broader discipline of economics has had its ups and downs, and has been undergoing a major identity crisis because it failed to predict the Great Recession. Times have changed: many leading researchers-including a few Nobel laureates-have taken the subject of Africa and economics seriously enough to devote their expertise and creativity to it. They have been amply rewarded: the richness, complexities, and subtleties of African societies, civilizations, rationalities, and ways of living, have helped renew the humanities and the social sciences-and economics in particular-to the point that the continent has become the next major intellectual frontier to researchers from around the world. In collecting some of the most authoritative statements about the science of economics and its concepts in the African context, this lhandbook (the first of two volumes) opens up the diverse acuity of commentary on exciting topics, and in the process challenges and stimulates the quest for knowledge. Wide-ranging in its scope, themes, language, and approaches, this volume explores, examines, and assesses economic thinking on Africa, and Africa's contribution to the discipline. The editors bring a set of powerful resources to this endeavor, most notably a team of internationally-renowned economists whose diverse viewpoints are complemented by the perspectives of philosophers, political scientists, and anthropologists.




Power in North-South Trade Negotiations


Book Description

Advancing a constructivist conceptual approach, this book explains the surprising outcome of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union and developing countries in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific (the ACP countries). Despite the EU’s huge market power, it had limited success with the EPAs; an outcome that confounds materialist narratives equating trade power with market size. Why was the EU unable to fully realise its prospectus for trade and regulatory liberalisation through the EPA negotiations? Emphasising the role of social legitimacy in asymmetrical North–South trade negotiations, Murray-Evans sets the EPAs within the broader context of an institutionally complex global trade regime and stresses the agency of both weak and strong actors in contesting trade rules and practices across multilateral, regional and bilateral negotiating settings. Empirical chapters approach the EPA process from different institutional angles to explain and map the genesis, design, promotion and ultimately limited impact of the EU’s ambitious prospectus for the EPAs. This volume will be particularly relevant to students and scholars of international trade and development and the EU as an international actor, as well as those researching international political economy, African politics and international trade law.




Geographical Perspectives on International Trade


Book Description

This book analyzes spatial and temporal patterns of international trade from a geographical perspective. Trade is an important key to understanding the changing dynamics of economic spaces over time. However, studies by geographers are largely confined to case studies, whereas the spatial dimension is often missing from the approach of economists. This study highlights spatial patterns and commodity composition of global trade and the nature of relationship between trade and other economic attributes. A case study of the MERCOSUR trade block examines inter-regional and intra-regional trade flows. The book captures a comprehensive picture of the structure of international exchange by using ample maps and illustrations as supporting features. Many different methods are applied such as the location quotient to capture concentration and diversification of commodity composition, data reduction techniques such as factor analysis and regression models for relating the economic structures and trade patterns as well as residual mapping among others. This book is a significant contribution to geographical, economical and social sciences research and very useful to graduate and post-graduate students as well as scientists of all related areas who have interest in exploring the changing dynamics of the global economy via trade flows. It provides a road map to further explore different dimensions of international trade and its role in understanding the transforming global economy.




The Future of South-South Economic Relations


Book Description

In recent years, it has become apparent that South-South economic relations are increasing, and will continue to do so. There will be more trade agreements and more trade, more economic alliances and more political alliances with economic goals, more investment flows and an increasing acknowledgement that the Global South has more to offer than it has in the past. These new economics relations have great potential, both for harm and for good. In the absence of directed policies and intentional actors, imbalances of power and growing gaps in development will persist. With the right policies in place, however, these relationships could forge a new global order with greater economic and political equality. Covering a wide range of topics, including regional trade integration in Africa, the environmental impact of increased South-South trade, the changing patterns of South-South investment, and the effect of conflict on trade in South Asia, this ground-breaking volume presents an analysis of South-South economic relations, and how they might impact and be impacted by the rest of the world.




Adapting to a Changing Environment


Book Description

This requires strengthening a society's flexibility, assets, learning, and social organizations, as well as restricting or limiting its resource use.