Colombia: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia


Book Description

COVID-19 has taken a severe toll on Colombia’s society and economy—including over 60,000 deaths and over 5 million jobs temporarily lost in Colombia’s largest recession on record. A gradual but uneven recovery led by private domestic demand and manufacturing is underway, but services continue to be weak. While the economy had remained resilient before the pandemic owing to very strong policy frameworks, economic activity is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.




Colombia


Book Description

This paper discusses Colombia’s Review Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) Arrangement. Growth is projected to remain robust in 2014 and beyond, although risks are tilted to the downside. Real GDP is projected to grow at around potential in 2014 and over the medium term, with inflation remaining within the target range of 2–4 percent. However, Colombia remains vulnerable to external risks, including a sharp decline in oil prices and a surge in global financial market volatility. The IMF staff assesses that Colombia continues to meet the qualification criteria for access to FCL resources, and recommends completion of the review under the FCL arrangement for Colombia.




Colombia


Book Description

Colombia’s very strong track record of macroeconomic policy management, underpinned by robust fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, has reduced vulnerabilities in recent years and helped weather the global financial crisis. The authorities’ policy focus has shifted from supporting the recovery through appropriate countercyclical measures to rebuilding policy buffers through fiscal consolidation, the normalization of monetary policy, and a strengthening of the reserve position.




Colombia


Book Description

Colombia: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia




Peru: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru


Book Description

Peru’s very strong macroeconomic policies and institutional policy frameworks have helped anchor strong growth and stability over the past several years and navigate the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The confluence of a sound inflation-targeting regime, flexible exchange rate, credible fiscal framework, reflected in very low public debt, and sound financial sector supervision and regulation have allowed the country to deploy a robust policy response to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the pandemic while sustaining strong access to international capital markets. Following the worst economic contraction in 30 years, economic activity is expected to rebound this year as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out, and the pandemic is gradually brought under control. Real GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by 2022, supported by improved terms-of-trade and a pick-up in domestic demand. The second round of presidential elections is scheduled for June 6.




Colombia: Request for an Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia


Book Description

Colombia’s very strong policy frameworks and comprehensive policy response to the pandemic have supported the economy’s resilience. With stronger-than-expected growth last year, fiscal deficits and public debt are declining faster than anticipated, and the fiscal framework has been reactivated with a new fiscal rule and debt anchor. Further monetary policy tightening should drive inflation towards the central bank’s inflation target by mid-2024. Successful credit support measures in the financial sector are being phased out and, as discussed in the recent FSAP, financial sector supervision and regulation have been enhanced since the previous staff assessment. Overall, the authorities remain committed to maintaining their very strong policy framework as seen by steps taken to normalize policies from a crisis footing in the pandemic. Political assurances on policy continuity from the leading candidates provide a necessary safeguard for the proposed arrangement.




Colombia


Book Description

Colombia’s recovery is gaining momentum on the back of strong domestic demand, with a wider current account deficit. As a key external shock, migration flows from Venezuela accelerated in 2018 and by end-December 1.5 million migrants were estimated to live in Colombia. Risks to global growth and financial stability are tilted to the downside and have increased somewhat relative to the last FCL approval according to the April 2019 WEO and GFSR. Given the importance of oil exports and non-resident holdings of local-currency bonds, Colombia remains exposed to lower global growth, including indirectly through lower oil prices, and a sudden reversal in investor sentiment. Colombia weathered last year’s financial and oil market volatility well, however, as evidenced by stable spreads and local currency bond yields.




Colombia


Book Description

Colombia’s strong institutional frameworks and sound policy management have underpinned a strong macroeconomic performance and contributed to reducing vulnerabilities. The Colombian economy exhibited great resilience during the global crisis, and the output recovery is well entrenched. The impact on fund finances, risks, and safeguards are discussed. The Colombian authorities viewed that the uncertainties surrounding the external environment remain elevated and that a successor flexible credit line (FCL) arrangement with a duration of two years would provide useful protection against continuing external risks.




High-Value Natural Resources and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding


Book Description

For most post-conflict countries, the transition to peace is daunting. In countries with high-value natural resources – including oil, gas, diamonds, other minerals, and timber –the stakes are unusually high and peacebuilding is especially challenging. Resource-rich post-conflict countries face both unique problems and opportunities. They enter peacebuilding with an advantage that distinguishes them from other war-torn societies: access to natural resources that can yield substantial revenues for alleviating poverty, compensating victims, creating jobs, and rebuilding the country and the economy. Evidence shows, however, that this opportunity is often wasted. Resource-rich countries do not have a better record in sustaining peace. In fact, resource-related conflicts are more likely to relapse. Focusing on the relationship between high-value natural resources and peacebuilding in post-conflict settings, this book identifies opportunities and strategies for converting resource revenues to a peaceful future. Its thirty chapters draw on the experiences of forty-one researchers and practitioners – as well as the broader literature – and cover a range of key issues, including resource extraction, revenue sharing and allocation, and institution building. The book provides a concise theoretical and practical framework that policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and students can use to understand and address the complex interplay between the management of high-value resources and peace. High-Value Natural Resources and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding is part of a global initiative led by the Environmental Law Institute (ELI), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the University of Tokyo, and McGill University to identify and analyze lessons in natural resource management and post-conflict peacebuilding. The project has generated six edited books of case studies and analyses, with contributions from practitioners, policy makers, and researchers. Other books in the series address land; water; livelihoods; assessing and restoring natural resources; and governance.




Colombia


Book Description

This paper discusses key findings of the Review Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) for Colombia. The FCL arrangement has provided Colombia an additional coverage against adverse external shocks, in the context of strong monetary and fiscal policies. Colombia’s strong institutional and policy frameworks have created the scope to support domestic demand with prudently expansionary macroeconomic policies. The resources from the FCL have helped to bolster confidence in the country’s ability to withstand additional external shocks. In the IMF staff’s view, Colombia continues to fully meet the FCL qualification criteria.